54052 Dornbush Rd · Nassau Village-Ratliff, FL 32011

$158,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,647 sqft · Manufactured public records · 73 Days on market

Built 1988 1.01 ac lot Est $308k · 49% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy country living on the front porch of this home over looking the shaded front yard. Great open floor plan for living space with centralized kitchen and separate dining room. Laminate flooring make this home easy to keep the high traffic areas and features newer carpet in the bedrooms. Appliances are less than one year old. Washer and dryer do not convey with the sale. There is plenty of space to build a separate garage or workshop on this 1 Acre lot.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Convenient access
• Centralized kitchen

Tags

• FULL ACRE LOT
• CENTRALIZED KITCHEN
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SHADED YARD
• WIDE-OPEN SURROUNDINGS
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($925/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $148k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $148k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 2.2% in Nassau Village-Ratliff — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Nassau (town): math 74% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #4 of 73 in FL (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 100 active listings in the ZIP; 953 units permitted in Nassau County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $17k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Nassau County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $44k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 73 days — a 6% lower offer ($149k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $27k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $148,448 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 73 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.88%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.09%
• DSCR: 1.09
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $307,989
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
54178 Bea Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,791 (+9%)	6mo	$300,000	$168	68
54234 Hazel Jones Rd	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-8%)	2mo	$340,000	$225	63
54417 Point South Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-8%)	14mo	$274,300	$181	53
54124 Catherine Ave	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-15%)	3mo	$262,000	$187	52
54382 Armstrong Rd	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (-12%)	10mo	$279,000	$192	48
54055 Eva Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,698 (+3%)	22mo	$265,000	$156	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.06×
• Total profit: $90,984
• Equity at exit: $142,339

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.97×
• Total profit: $264,123
• Equity at exit: $306,959

Cash invested: $44,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32011

• Home prices YoY: 19.2%
• Active inventory: 100
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,484 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$829
• Tax from tax record: −$201 /mo · $2,415/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$312
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,387

Max offer price $158,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $167	-5% $122	+0% $77	+5% $32	+10% $-12
Rent	-10% $-40	-5% $18	+0% $77	+5% $136	+10% $194
Rate	-1.0pp $157	-0.5pp $117	base $77	+0.5pp $36	+1.0pp $-6

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,500
• Closing costs: $4,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-26
   price $158,000
3. 2026-03-16
   status Active
4. 2026-02-25
   status Pending
5. 2026-01-07
   listed $185,000 Active
6. 2022-02-28
   soldstatus $220,000
7. 2022-02-24
   soldstatus $220,000 Sold 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Enjoy country living on the front porch of this home over looking the shaded front yard. Great open floor plan for living space with centralized kitchen and separate dining room. Laminate flooring make this home easy to keep the high traffic areas and features newer carpet in the bedrooms. Appliances are less than one year old. Washer and dryer do not convey with the sale. There is plenty of space to build a separate garage or workshop on this 1 Acre lot.

8. 2022-01-07
   status Pending 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Enjoy country living on the front porch of this home over looking the shaded front yard. Great open floor plan for living space with centralized kitchen and separate dining room. Laminate flooring make this home easy to keep the high traffic areas and features newer carpet in the bedrooms. Appliances are less than one year old. Washer and dryer do not convey with the sale. There is plenty of space to build a separate garage or workshop on this 1 Acre lot.

9. 2021-11-16
   listed $220,000 Active 465-char remark

   Show marketing remark (465 chars)

   Enjoy country living on the front porch of this home over looking the shaded front yard. Great open floor plan for living space with centralized kitchen and separate dining room. Laminate flooring make this home easy to keep the high traffic areas and features newer carpet in the bedrooms. Appliances are less than one year old. Washer and dryer do not convey with the sale. There is plenty of space to build a separate garage or workshop on this 1 Acre lot.

10. 2012-03-20
    soldstatus $40,000 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Great starter home. Home features a foyer, wood burning fireplace in the greatroom and a formal dining room. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The property is beautiful with lots of trees and blueberry trees. This is a great location near JIA, schools, shopping and the beach. Home is being sold As Is.

11. 2012-03-20
    soldstatus $40,000

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Great starter home. Home features a foyer, wood burning fireplace in the greatroom and a formal dining room. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The property is beautiful with lots of trees and blueberry trees. This is a great location near JIA, schools, shopping and the beach. Home is being sold As Is.

12. 2011-07-08
    listed $58,000 303-char remark

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Great starter home. Home features a foyer, wood burning fireplace in the greatroom and a formal dining room. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The property is beautiful with lots of trees and blueberry trees. This is a great location near JIA, schools, shopping and the beach. Home is being sold As Is.

13. 2011-07-08
    listed $58,000

    Show marketing remark (303 chars)

    Great starter home. Home features a foyer, wood burning fireplace in the greatroom and a formal dining room. The kitchen has a breakfast nook. The property is beautiful with lots of trees and blueberry trees. This is a great location near JIA, schools, shopping and the beach. Home is being sold As Is.

14. 1994-10-14
    soldstatus $20,900
15. 1994-04-14
    soldstatus $17,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,415 · $201/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,814
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,850
• − Property taxes: −$2,415
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,425
• − Management: −$1,425
• − Depreciation: −$4,596
• Taxable loss: −$1,688
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$405
• After-tax cash flow: $1,330/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nassau
• NCES district ID: 1201350
• Math proficiency: 74% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,267
• Composite: 59.79/100
• National rank: #899
• State rank: #4 of 73 in FL

Livability — Nassau Village-Ratliff

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Nassau Village-Ratliff, FL
• Population (ZIP): 15,716

Population outlook (Nassau County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 88,419 people
• By 2030: 92,679 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 99,257 · +12.3%
• By 2050: 103,378 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 109,726 · +24.1%
• By 2100: 107,006 · +21.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nassau

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+46.9) · D 26.1% · R 73.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.1pp toward R · 2008: -43.8pp · 2024: -46.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+46.9 2020: R+45.9 2016: R+50.2 2012: R+48.6 2008: R+43.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 56.56%
• Current HPI: 351.8301
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+829.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-03-26 Price Changed $158,000 realMLS
• 2026-03-16 Relisted — realMLS
• 2026-02-25 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-01-07 Listed $185,000 realMLS
• 2022-02-28 Sold (Public Records) $220,000 Public Records
• 2022-02-24 Sold (MLS) $220,000 realMLS
• 2022-01-07 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-11-16 Listed $220,000 realMLS
• 2012-03-20 Sold (MLS) $40,000 AINCAR
• 2012-03-20 Sold (MLS) $40,000 realMLS
• 2011-07-08 Listed $58,000 AINCAR
• 2011-07-08 Listed $58,000 realMLS
• 1994-10-14 Sold (Public Records) $20,900 Public Records
• 1994-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $17,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+15.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,415 · +8.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.