20480 NW 294th St · Okeechobee, FL 34972

$199,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,745 sqft · Manufactured public records · 122 Days on market

Built 2005 1.25 ac lot Est $223k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.4/30.0
• ARV discount +12.2/15.0
• DSCR +8.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +2.0/10.0

Key facts

• 1.25 acre lot
• Built 2005
• Listed 121 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Resale condition; Lot approximately 1.25 acres
• Financial info: No additional financial details provided
• HOA & community: No association amenities; Pets allowed with no restrictions; Located in a senior community

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; 220V electrical service with three-phase; Water available
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story; North-facing
• Construction: Modular construction; Other roof; Other skirting
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fenced yard; Fruit trees on the lot; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms (all on the main level)
• Flooring: Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $461 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Recommended offer: $176k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 4.3% in Okeechobee — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in FL, #3,234 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Okeechobee (town): math 44% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #58 of 73 in FL (top 80%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 644 active listings in the ZIP; 18 units permitted in Okeechobee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Okeechobee County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $200k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $175,995 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.87%
• DSCR: 1.44
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $223,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19944 NW 284 St	0.74mi	4/2.0	1,525 (-13%)	19mo	$195,000	$128	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,054
• Equity at exit: $29,820

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $35,195
• Equity at exit: $17,292

Cash invested: $55,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34972

• Home prices YoY: -1.5%
• Active inventory: 644
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,303 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,720/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$484
• Net cashflow: $461

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,720

Max offer price $199,995

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,999
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $199,995 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $199,995 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $199,995 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $199,995 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $199,995 Active 118 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $199,995 Active 116 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $199,995 Active 113 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $199,995 Active 112 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $199,995 Active 111 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $199,995 Active 110 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $199,995 Active 107 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $199,995 Active 106 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $199,995 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $199,995 Active 104 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $199,995 Active 103 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $199,995 Active 102 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    price $199,995
18. 2026-02-16
    listed $229,000 Active
19. 2020-07-01
    soldstatus $40,000
20. 1984-10-16
    soldstatus $5,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,720 · $227/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,636
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$2,720
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,211
• − Management: −$2,211
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $2,473
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$594
• After-tax cash flow: $4,933/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Okeechobee
• NCES district ID: 1201410
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,710
• Composite: 35.73/100
• National rank: #4855
• State rank: #58 of 73 in FL

Livability — Okeechobee

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #3234

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 23,975
• Population (ZIP): 19,185

Population outlook (Okeechobee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 37,273 people
• By 2030: 35,885 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 32,931 · -11.6%
• By 2050: 29,433 · -21.0%
• By 2075: 19,607 · -47.4%
• By 2100: 11,814 · -68.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 30% Black 14% Two or more races 14%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24% Puerto Rican 1% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Okeechobee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.8) · D 22.9% · R 76.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -53.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.8 2020: R+44.4 2016: R+39.5 2012: R+20.0 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -5.94%
• Current HPI: 389.1156
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+3899.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Price Changed $199,995 Beaches MLS
• 2026-02-16 Listed $229,000 Beaches MLS
• 2020-07-01 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
• 1984-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $5,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,720 · -16.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.