1111 Archwood Dr SW #366 · Olympia, WA 98502

$24,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 246 Days on market

Built 1972 $17/sqft · 70% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Discover relaxed, easy living in this inviting 3-bedroom home located in a friendly 55+ community! Inside, you’ll find a spacious living room, formal dining & adorable kitchen w/ all appliances incl. Primary Ste offers a walk-in closet, dual vanity & walk-in shower while 2 add'l bedrms & guest bathrm w/ shower-tub combo provide comfort and flexibility for guests. A separate den/office adds even more versatility! Step outside to enjoy low-maintenance living with a semi-enclosed cov patio, walk-up ramp, and easy-care yard. Covered parking for 3 vehicles & shed. Steps away from Clubhouse w/ pickleball court, billiards, jacuzzi, sauna, activities & more; plu

Key facts

• Easy-care yard
• Semi-enclosed patio
• Walk-in closet

Tags

• WALK-IN CLOSET
• DUAL VANITY
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• SEPARATE DEN
• SEMI-ENCLOSED PATIO
• EASY-CARE YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $24k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($19k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $24k).
• Recommended offer: $21k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 83.5% vs local median 2.4% in Olympia — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#58 in WA, #1,036 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, cost of living D-.
• Olympia School District (urban): math 66% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #17 of 291 in WA (top 6%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 304 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($166 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 246 days — a 12% lower offer ($21k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (52%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $18k; 37% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $21,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 246 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 9.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 83.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 275.79%
• DSCR: 13.27
• GRM: 0.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $79,479
• List price: $24,000
• Delta: -69.80%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1111 Archwood Dr SW #285	0.17mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,431 (-1%)	1mo	$105,000	$73	85
1111 Archwood Dr SW #327	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,404 (-2%)	8mo	$215,000	$153	83
1111 Archwood Dr SW #418	0.09mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	2mo	$22,000	$16	83
1111 Archwood Dr SW #204	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	7mo	$95,000	$66	81
1111 Archwood Dr SW #200	0.16mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	1mo	$60,000	$45	76
1111 Archwood Dr SW #306	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	4mo	$75,000	$48	74
1111 Archwood Dr SW #429	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,528 (+6%)	10mo	$75,000	$49	72
1111 Archwood Dr SW #242	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,372 (-5%)	16mo	$145,950	$106	70
1111 Archwood Dr SW #263	0.15mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,320 (-8%)	7mo	$85,000	$64	68
1111 Archwood Dr SW #202	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	14mo	$110,000	$70	65
1111 Archwood Dr SW #213	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+9%)	14mo	$150,000	$96	62
1111 Archwood Dr SW #447	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,248 (-13%)	11mo	$79,500	$64	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.16% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 17.64×
• Total profit: $111,822
• Equity at exit: $21,621

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 38.61×
• Total profit: $252,734
• Equity at exit: $46,627

Cash invested: $6,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98502

• Home prices YoY: 1.8%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 304
• Price-to-rent: 0.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,173 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$126
• Tax from tax record: −$36 /mo · $435/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$456
• Net cashflow: $1,544

Break-even live

Break-even rent $218

Max offer price $24,000

Occupancy floor 24%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,558	-5% $1,551	+0% $1,544	+5% $1,538	+10% $1,531
Rent	-10% $1,373	-5% $1,459	+0% $1,544	+5% $1,630	+10% $1,716
Rate	-1.0pp $1,556	-0.5pp $1,551	base $1,544	+0.5pp $1,538	+1.0pp $1,532

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,000
• Closing costs: $720
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3311 6th Ave SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$2,470	$2.78	14d	16	0.30mi
800 Yauger Way SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1034	$2,131	$2.06	14d	13	0.39mi
1309 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	802	$2,206	$2.75	14d	2	0.54mi
1900 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	925	$2,137	$2.31	14d	13	0.55mi
1220 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,850	$2.06	44d	2	0.65mi
1000 Fern St SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	892	$2,281	$2.56	14d	8	0.71mi
2010 8th Ct SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,295	$2.14	22d	1	0.77mi
2800 Limited Ln NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,503	$1.94	14d	4	0.83mi
600 Black Lake Blvd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0	851	$1,600	$1.88	14d	23	0.86mi
300 Kenyon St NW Olympia, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	878	$1,995	$2.27	14d	6	0.89mi
4611 Greenwood Dr SW Olympia, WA	3.0	3.0	1448	$2,495	$1.72	44d	1	1.00mi
121 Decatur St NW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,695	$1.70	22d	1	1.06mi
125 Decatur St NW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	980	$1,900	$1.94	22d	1	1.07mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit A Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,995	$1.60	44d	1	1.19mi
2137 Conger Ave NW Unit C Olympia, WA	3.0	2.0	1248	$1,895	$1.52	44d	1	1.19mi
1221 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	1.0	880	$1,749	$1.99	14d	2	1.20mi
1415 Evergreen Park Dr SW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,735	$1.65	14d	1	1.24mi
1626 Madison Ave NW Olympia, WA	2.0	2.0	1064	$2,100	$1.97	14d	1	1.30mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Unit 714 Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1030	$1,725	$1.67	22d	1	1.38mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,775	$1.94	14d	8	1.38mi
2820 Tuscany Ln SW Unit 411 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,635	$1.79	44d	1	1.38mi
5004 4th Way SW Olympia, WA	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1271	$2,645	$2.08	14d	5	1.38mi
1221 Mottman Rd SW Olympia, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1011	$2,195	$2.17	22d	4	1.41mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $24,000 Active 246 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $24,000 Active 245 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $24,000 Active 244 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $24,000 Active 243 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $24,000 Active 241 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $24,000 Active 240 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $24,000 Active 238 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $24,000 Active 237 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $24,000 Active 236 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $24,000 Active 235 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $24,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $24,000 Active 230 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $24,000 Active 229 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $24,000 Active 228 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $24,000 Active 227 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $24,000
17. 2026-02-23
    price $27,800
18. 2025-12-03
    price $39,900
19. 2025-10-15
    listed $49,900 Active
20. 2005-09-30
    soldstatus $17,500
21. 2005-05-31
    listed $17,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $435 · $36/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,074
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,344
• − Property taxes: −$435
• − Insurance: −$120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,086
• − Management: −$2,086
• − Depreciation: −$698
• Taxable income: $19,304
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,633
• After-tax cash flow: $13,900/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Olympia School District
• NCES district ID: 5306180
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $63,852
• Composite: 62.27/100
• National rank: #1438
• State rank: #17 of 291 in WA

Livability — Olympia

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #58
• US rank: #1036

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing A Health & safety A+ User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Olympia, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 98,428
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 35,398
• Household income: $92,207
• Rent vs Own: 42.6% rent · 57.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1811.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 6% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 4% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Vietnam, Canada, China
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.49%
• Current HPI: 1056.49
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+37.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $24,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-23 Price Changed $27,800 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $39,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-15 Listed $49,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-09-30 Sold (MLS) $17,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-05-31 Listed $17,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+5.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $435 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.