28 Thimbleberry Rd · Round Lake, NY 12020

$329,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 2,120 sqft · Townhouse public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1987 6,969 sqft lot $156/sqft · 7% below area Est $355k · 7% under $12/mo HOA ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Cash flow +9.8/30.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

* * Open house CANCELLED * * Step into this spacious townhouse located in Luther Forest! You're welcome by an open-concept kitchen featuring an island and a spacious living room with vaulted ceilings. A generous room just off the kitchen offers flexibility as either a home office or dining area. Recent updates include a newer roof (approximately 4 years old), furnace (1 year old), and A/C unit (8/25). Full attic with pull-down stairs for added storage. The backyard serves as your own private retreat, complete with a heated pool, newer patio and gazebo, all surrounded by a privacy fence. Large shed included in the backyard. An ideal outdoor space for entertaining or simply unwinding. Conve

Key facts

• Newer patio
• Open concept kitchen
• Recent updates

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• HOME OFFICE
• RECENT UPDATES
• HEATED POOL
• NEWER PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $145 (fee covers other items)

Exterior

• Parking: Paved driveway with space for 4 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Townhouse; 2,120 living area; Wood siding construction; Asphalt roof
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Patio; Outdoor bar; Gazebo; Paved driveway; Back yard fencing with privacy; Landscaped, level, private lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the second floor
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first floor, one on the second floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Solid surface counters; Vaulted ceilings; 9 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $330k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-214 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $292k (11.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (18.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (18.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 2.2% in Round Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#236 in NY, #3,708 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Ballston Spa Central School District (suburban): math 54% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #289 of 590 in NY (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Malta Avenue Elementary School (math 52% / reading 57%, grade C, #908 of 2,108 statewide, top 46%, 342 students, 29% FRL); Ballston Spa Middle School (math 40% / reading 59%, grade C, #280 of 729 statewide, top 40%, 945 students, 32% FRL); Ballston Spa Senior High School (math 92% / reading 64%, grade A-, #568 of 1,100 statewide, top 52%, 1,249 students, 32% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+11.3%/yr); 225 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($107k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $269,992 (18.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.78%
• DSCR: 0.88
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $355,282
• List price: $329,900
• Delta: -7.14%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-52,754
• Equity at exit: $49,189

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $1,766
• Equity at exit: $28,524

Cash invested: $92,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12020

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Rents YoY: 11.3%
• Active inventory: 225
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,700 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,730
• Tax from tax record: −$468 /mo · $5,613/yr
• Insurance: −$137
• HOA: −$12
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-214

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,971

Max offer price $292,049

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-121	+0% $-214	+5% $-308	+10% $-401
Rent	-10% $-428	-5% $-321	+0% $-214	+5% $-108	+10% $-1
Rate	-1.0pp $-48	-0.5pp $-130	base $-214	+0.5pp $-300	+1.0pp $-387

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,475
• Closing costs: $9,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $12 · $144/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 757-char remark
2. 2026-05-14
   listed $329,900 Active 757-char remark
3. 2026-01-29
   historical
4. 2026-01-19
   price $319,900
5. 2025-12-11
   price $324,900
6. 2025-12-03
   price $359,900
7. 2025-11-20
   listed $369,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,613 · $468/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,613 · $468/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,399
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,480
• − Property taxes: −$5,613
• − Insurance: −$1,650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,592
• − Management: −$2,592
• − HOA: −$144
• − Depreciation: −$9,597
• Taxable loss: −$8,267
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,984
• After-tax cash flow: $-587/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ballston Spa Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3603930
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,705
• Composite: 48.12/100
• National rank: #2184
• State rank: #289 of 590 in NY

Livability — Round Lake

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #236
• US rank: #3708

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,937
• Household income: $107,112
• Rent vs Own: 29.8% rent · 70.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 607.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 6% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.23%
• Current HPI: 346.5996
• Rent YoY: ▲ 11.26%
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-10.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $329,900 Global MLS
• 2026-01-29 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2026-01-19 Price Changed $319,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-11 Price Changed $324,900 Global MLS
• 2025-12-03 Price Changed $359,900 Global MLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $369,900 Global MLS

Property tax history

+3.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,613 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.