804 Eagles Nest · Cleburne, TX 76031

$244,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,002 sqft · Land · 130 Days on market

Built 2025 5,663 sqft lot $40/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21131717 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ Model 2002 B1 - Sequoia The Sequoia Plan from our Freedom Series is a spacious 2-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, and 2,002 square feet of living space, complete with a 2-car garage. Upon entering the home, you’ll pass the staircase to the upper level and a convenient half bathroom before arriving at the open concept living area. The family room flows effortlessly into the kitchen, which boasts an angled island that overlooks the dining area. This layout is perfect for family gatherings and everyday living. The upper level is designed with comfort and convenience in mind. The primary suite features a walk-in closet and a priva

Key facts

• 5,663 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2025

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $245k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $231k (5.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 3.6% in Cleburne — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#460 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Cleburne ISD (town): math 34% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #537 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Fe El (math 37% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,995 of 4,322 statewide, top 50%, 409 students, 91% FRL) — zoned schools average 91% FRL vs 56% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 335 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 40% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $215,591 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.07%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,317
• Equity at exit: $36,529

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.07×
• Total profit: $4,939
• Equity at exit: $21,182

Cash invested: $68,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76031

• Home prices YoY: -17.6%
• Active inventory: 335
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,314 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,285
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,336/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$486
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,947

Max offer price $244,990

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $428	-5% $359	+0% $290	+5% $220	+10% $151
Rent	-10% $107	-5% $198	+0% $290	+5% $381	+10% $472
Rate	-1.0pp $413	-0.5pp $352	base $290	+0.5pp $226	+1.0pp $161

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,248
• Closing costs: $7,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
805 Bluffview Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,245	$1.02	44d	1	0.11mi
872 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.5	2203	$2,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.19mi
853 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,490	$0.96	3d	1	0.20mi
853 Eagles Nest Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	2600	$2,695	$1.04	25d	1	0.20mi
516 Quail Meadows Dr Cleburne, TX	5.0	3.0	1804	$2,400	$1.33	5d	1	0.26mi
605 Mayfield Dr Cleburne, TX	3.0	3.0	2140	$2,340	$1.09	44d	1	0.27mi
544 Quail Meadows Dr Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1804	$2,100	$1.16	25d	1	0.28mi
301 Pearl St Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.0	1405	$1,900	$1.35	25d	1	0.98mi
114 Scurlock Ave Cleburne, TX	4.0	2.0	1457	$1,770	$1.21	44d	1	1.43mi
110 E Wilson St Unit B Cleburne, TX	3.0	2.5	1400	$1,900	$1.36	25d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $244,990
3. 2026-03-11
   price $249,990
4. 2026-03-06
   price $262,990
5. 2026-03-04
   price $275,990
6. 2026-02-27
   price $265,990
7. 2026-02-11
   price $275,990
8. 2026-01-15
   price $278,990
9. 2025-12-12
   listed $279,100 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,336 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,483 · $374/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,148/yr (+$262/mo · 235.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,762
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,723
• − Property taxes: −$1,336
• − Insurance: −$1,225
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,221
• − Management: −$2,221
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$7,127
• Taxable loss: −$570
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$137
• After-tax cash flow: $3,612/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cleburne ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814310
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,788
• Composite: 29.0/100
• National rank: #6618
• State rank: #537 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cleburne

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #460
• US rank: #9292

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cleburne, TX
• City population: 29,538
• Population (ZIP): 18,697

Population outlook (Johnson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 179,678 people
• By 2030: 189,208 · +5.3%
• By 2040: 207,261 · +15.4%
• By 2050: 223,064 · +24.1%
• By 2075: 259,979 · +44.7%
• By 2100: 275,395 · +53.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Johnson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.4) · D 23.9% · R 75.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -51.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.4 2020: R+53.0 2016: R+58.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.43%
• Current HPI: 277.598
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-12.2% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $244,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $249,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $262,990 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Price Changed $275,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-27 Price Changed $265,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $275,990 NTREIS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $278,990 NTREIS
• 2025-12-12 Listed $279,100 NTREIS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,336 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.