1033 Oak Forest Dr · The Villages, FL 32162

$349,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1999 6,500 sqft lot Est $447k · 22% under $204/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

FRESHLY PAINTED. MOVE IN READY. DIAGONAL CERAMIC THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE LANAI. AROUND MB TUB/SHOWER AND KIT BACKSPLASH. BAYS IN KIT EATING AREA AND MASTER BDRM. MASTER BDRM HAS 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS. GARG SCR DR, BIRDCAGE, ROCK WATERFALL, GRT LANDSCAPING.

Key facts

• New appliances
• Updated hvac
• Leaf gutter guards

Tags

• LARGE SCREENED FLORIDA ROOM
• NEW ROOF
• UPDATED HVAC
• NEW APPLIANCES
• UPDATED HOT WATER HEATER
• LEAF GUTTER GUARDS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.15 acres (65 x 100); Living area reported as 1,840 square feet; total building area 2,520 square feet
• Financial info: CDD present; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, fitness center, playground, tennis, pickleball, basketball and shuffleboard courts, golf, dog park, sidewalks, recreation facilities and community mailbox; Association services include management, pool, recreational facilities, security and common area taxes; Pets allowed: cats and dogs; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Security: Community gated (community amenities indicate gated); Community security included in association services
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; BB/HS internet available; Fire hydrant nearby
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Completed condition; Faces west
• Construction: Vinyl siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as builder model 'cypress'
• Exterior features: Rain gutters; Sliding doors; Asphalt road access; Public maintained road; Irrigation equipment

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Cathedral ceilings; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry located inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $311 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $339k (3.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $339k (3.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.9%/yr); 550 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,386/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($74k/yr) (locally 987% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($345k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $262k; 33% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $338,629 (3.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.81%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $447,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3065 Batally Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,906 (+4%)	1mo	$275,000	$144	80
3328 Archer Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,812 (-2%)	3mo	$415,000	$229	76
1252 Weaton Ct	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,905 (+4%)	2mo	$330,000	$173	70
3177 Williams Rd	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,894 (+3%)	2mo	$420,000	$222	67
2967 Saint Thomas Ln	0.36mi	3/2.0	2,032 (+10%)	2mo	$460,000	$226	64
3109 Archer Ave	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-13%)	2mo	$400,000	$250	63
3312 Barrington Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,898 (+3%)	4mo	$642,000	$338	57
1277 Northbrook Pl	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-10%)	1mo	$308,000	$186	54
3089 Burbank Ln	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,653 (-10%)	2mo	$410,000	$248	54
935 Kenova Ave	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,572 (-15%)	0mo	$397,000	$253	48
2622 Caribe Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,647 (-10%)	4mo	$400,000	$243	45
3300 Barrington Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	2,105 (+14%)	4mo	$515,000	$245	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.92% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-33,721
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $9,426
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32162

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Rents YoY: 3.9%
• Active inventory: 550
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,386 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$180 /mo · $2,156/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$711
• Net cashflow: $311

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,993

Max offer price $349,900

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
888 Radclife Berea Pl The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1288	$4,200	$3.26	21d	1	0.35mi
3057 Saint Thomas Ln The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2044	$2,850	$1.39	21d	1	0.36mi
3301 Archer Ave The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	2117	$5,000	$2.36	21d	1	0.43mi
971 Kingmont Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$3,400	$2.44	21d	1	0.49mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	0.78mi
3260 Atwell Ave The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1392	$2,500	$1.80	21d	1	0.78mi
3545 Idlewood Loop The Villages, FL	2.0	2.0	1240	$4,500	$3.63	21d	1	0.91mi
12580 NE 49th Dr Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$2,400	$1.24	21d	1	1.15mi
424 Bowman Ter The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	2000	$5,400	$2.70	21d	1	1.16mi
12362 NE 50th Vw Oxford, FL	4.0	4.0	1929	$2,300	$1.19	21d	1	1.20mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	1.35mi
12388 NE 48th Loop Oxford, FL	3.0	2.0	1426	$1,700	$1.19	21d	1	1.39mi
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscaping

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $349,900 Active 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 25 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 24 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 23 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $349,900 Active 20 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $349,900 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $349,900 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $349,900 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    price $349,900 Active 15 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $355,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    pricedays on market $355,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $359,000 Active 9 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $359,000 Active 8 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $359,000 Active 7 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $359,000 Active 6 DOM
17. 2026-05-24
    listed $359,000 Active
18. 2026-05-22
    historical
19. 2026-05-08
    price $345,000
20. 2026-05-02
    price $349,000
21. 2026-04-27
    price $349,495
22. 2026-04-17
    price $349,950
23. 2026-04-13
    price $357,950
24. 2026-04-08
    price $362,500
25. 2026-03-31
    price $365,000
26. 2026-02-24
    price $369,000
27. 2026-01-21
    listed $379,000 Active
28. 2007-03-07
    soldstatus $262,500
29. 2007-03-01
    soldstatus $262,500 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    FRESHLY PAINTED. MOVE IN READY. DIAGONAL CERAMIC THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE LANAI. AROUND MB TUB/SHOWER AND KIT BACKSPLASH. BAYS IN KIT EATING AREA AND MASTER BDRM. MASTER BDRM HAS 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS. GARG SCR DR, BIRDCAGE, ROCK WATERFALL, GRT LANDSCAPING.

30. 2007-03-01
    soldstatus $262,500

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    FRESHLY PAINTED. MOVE IN READY. DIAGONAL CERAMIC THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE LANAI. AROUND MB TUB/SHOWER AND KIT BACKSPLASH. BAYS IN KIT EATING AREA AND MASTER BDRM. MASTER BDRM HAS 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS. GARG SCR DR, BIRDCAGE, ROCK WATERFALL, GRT LANDSCAPING.

31. 2007-02-12
    listed $279,900
32. 2007-01-12
    listed $279,900 253-char remark

    Show marketing remark (253 chars)

    FRESHLY PAINTED. MOVE IN READY. DIAGONAL CERAMIC THROUGHOUT INCLUDING THE LANAI. AROUND MB TUB/SHOWER AND KIT BACKSPLASH. BAYS IN KIT EATING AREA AND MASTER BDRM. MASTER BDRM HAS 2 WALK-IN CLOSETS. GARG SCR DR, BIRDCAGE, ROCK WATERFALL, GRT LANDSCAPING.

33. 1999-10-26
    soldstatus $150,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,156 · $180/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,904 · $242/mo
• Expected delta: +$748/yr (+$62/mo · 34.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,635
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$2,156
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,251
• − Management: −$3,251
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$1,998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$480
• After-tax cash flow: $4,209/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Sumter County · 110,591 people
• City population: 83,973
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• Population (ZIP): 55,424
• Household income: $74,119
• Rent vs Own: 7.1% rent · 92.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 987.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 4% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -16.16%
• Current HPI: 218.1956
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.92%
• Metro: The Villages, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+138.2% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Listed $359,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-22 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $345,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $349,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $349,495 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-17 Price Changed $349,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-13 Price Changed $357,950 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $362,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $365,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $369,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $379,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $262,500 Public Records
• 2007-03-01 Sold (MLS) $262,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-03-01 Sold (MLS) $262,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-12 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-01-12 Listed $279,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1999-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $150,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,156 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.