1704 Beechbank Way · Bel Air North, MD 21015

$315,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,740 sqft · Townhouse public records · 3 Days on market

Built 1989 2,003 sqft lot $181/sqft · at area comps Est $318k · at est. $125/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.9/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome Home to this move in ready home in the highly sought after community of the Villages of Thomas Run. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, updated flooring on the main level, and a finished basement with a walkout. Entertain family and friends on the patio and large deck that overlooks the fenced in rear yard that backs to lush common area green space. A number of recent updates include a New HVAC in 2016, New Roof in 2018, New stove in 2019. Villages of Thomas Run is located in a great school district and close proximity to I-95, Bel Air shopping, and APG. Schedule your private showing today!

Key facts

• $125 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Below-grade finished area and unfinished area recorded by assessor
• HOA & community: HOA fee of $125 per month; Property manager present

Exterior

• Parking: Two assigned parking spaces; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service for heating, cooling, and hot water
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Concrete perimeter foundation; Above-grade and below-grade other structures
• Exterior features: No tidal water

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the first upper level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (one on the first upper level, one on the first lower level); One half bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s) heating; Central air conditioning (electric); Electric hot water
• Interior features: Fully finished basement with interior access and an outside entrance; Living area reported by assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $315k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5 ($58/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $271k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $271k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 4.2% in Bel Air North — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#35 in MD, #1,269 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities C-, cost of living F.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hickory Elementary (math 25% / reading 31%, grade F, #220 of 860 statewide, top 26%, 657 students, 22% FRL); Southampton Middle (math 20% / reading 51%, grade F, #43 of 225 statewide, top 20%, 1,175 students, 21% FRL); C. Milton Wright High (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B-, #59 of 222 statewide, top 27%, 1,266 students, 23% FRL) — zoned schools at 22% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 42% at this address vs 30% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Harford County Public Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 165 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 8 sale attempts since 30y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 26% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,696 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.07%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,613
• List price: $315,000
• Delta: -0.82%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1704 Beechbank Way	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,740 (0%)	1mo	$335,000	$193	99
1721 Beechbank Way	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,821 (+5%)	1mo	$353,000	$194	87
1820 Queen Anne Sq	0.25mi	3/3.0	1,800 (+3%)	1mo	$372,500	$207	80
1836 Bramble Brook Ln	0.30mi	3/1.0	1,746 (+0%)	2mo	$341,500	$196	78
1812 Glendale Ln	0.36mi	3/3.0	1,760 (+1%)	3mo	$345,000	$196	77
1852 Oxford Sq	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,746 (+0%)	4mo	$325,000	$186	70
1831 Still Pond Way	0.51mi	3/1.5	1,760 (+1%)	3mo	$312,000	$177	68
1810 Wye Mills Ln	0.38mi	3/3.0	1,867 (+7%)	1mo	$365,000	$196	67
924 Buckland Pl	0.32mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,638 (-6%)	0mo	$400,000	$244	66
917 Buckland Pl	0.34mi	3/2.5	1,970 (+13%)	2mo	$367,000	$186	60
1876 Oxford Sq	0.58mi	3/2.5	1,626 (-7%)	3mo	$363,500	$224	59
1901 Millington Sq	0.55mi	3/3.5	1,870 (+8%)	1mo	$260,000	$139	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.46×
• Total profit: $-47,330
• Equity at exit: $46,968

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-26,492
• Equity at exit: $27,235

Cash invested: $88,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 165
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,707 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,652
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,706/yr
• Insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$568
• Net cashflow: $5

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,701

Max offer price $315,000

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $94	+0% $5	+5% $-84	+10% $-173
Rent	-10% $-209	-5% $-102	+0% $5	+5% $112	+10% $219
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $85	base $5	+0.5pp $-77	+1.0pp $-160

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $78,750
• Closing costs: $9,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1813 Chester Way Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1800	$2,500	$1.39	0d	1	0.46mi
733 Reedy Cir Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1992	$2,685	$1.35	13d	1	1.26mi
742 Reedy Cir Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.0	1296	$2,100	$1.62	6d	1	1.27mi
215 Hitching Post Dr Bel Air, MD	3.0	1.5	1892	$3,100	$1.64	45d	1	1.28mi
739 Orley Pl Unit 739 Bel Air, MD	2.0	2.0	1725	$2,550	$1.48	4d	1	1.33mi
1302 Roman Ridge Way Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,250	$1.55	19d	1	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 1196-char remark
2. 2026-05-01
   listed $315,000 Active 1196-char remark
3. 2026-04-24
   historical $315,000 1196-char remark
4. 2019-12-11
   soldstatus $232,600 Closed 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Welcome Home to this move in ready home in the highly sought after community of the Villages of Thomas Run. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, updated flooring on the main level, and a finished basement with a walkout. Entertain family and friends on the patio and large deck that overlooks the fenced in rear yard that backs to lush common area green space. A number of recent updates include a New HVAC in 2016, New Roof in 2018, New stove in 2019. Villages of Thomas Run is located in a great school district and close proximity to I-95, Bel Air shopping, and APG. Schedule your private showing today!

5. 2019-11-11
   status Pending 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Welcome Home to this move in ready home in the highly sought after community of the Villages of Thomas Run. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, updated flooring on the main level, and a finished basement with a walkout. Entertain family and friends on the patio and large deck that overlooks the fenced in rear yard that backs to lush common area green space. A number of recent updates include a New HVAC in 2016, New Roof in 2018, New stove in 2019. Villages of Thomas Run is located in a great school district and close proximity to I-95, Bel Air shopping, and APG. Schedule your private showing today!

6. 2019-11-08
   listed $235,000 Active 614-char remark

   Show marketing remark (614 chars)

   Welcome Home to this move in ready home in the highly sought after community of the Villages of Thomas Run. This home features 3 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, updated flooring on the main level, and a finished basement with a walkout. Entertain family and friends on the patio and large deck that overlooks the fenced in rear yard that backs to lush common area green space. A number of recent updates include a New HVAC in 2016, New Roof in 2018, New stove in 2019. Villages of Thomas Run is located in a great school district and close proximity to I-95, Bel Air shopping, and APG. Schedule your private showing today!

7. 2010-10-27
   soldstatus $189,000
8. 2010-10-21
   soldstatus $189,000

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   Nicely maintained home just painted. Neutral decor throughout. Great walk out to yard and open space. Fully finished basement, 2 1/2 baths for the busy family and large deck off of large eat in kitchen. Ready to move in.

9. 2010-10-21
   soldstatus $189,000 Sold

   Show marketing remark (220 chars)

   Nicely maintained home just painted. Neutral decor throughout. Great walk out to yard and open space. Fully finished basement, 2 1/2 baths for the busy family and large deck off of large eat in kitchen. Ready to move in.

10. 2010-06-08
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
11. 2010-05-10
    historical

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Nicely maintained home just painted. Neutral decor throughout. Great walk out to yard and open space. Fully finished basement, 2 1/2 baths for the busy family and large deck off of large eat in kitchen. Ready to move in.

12. 2010-05-04
    status Active
13. 2010-04-10
    status Contingent (No Kick Out)
14. 2010-03-29
    price $189,000
15. 2010-02-24
    price $199,900
16. 2010-01-11
    price $215,000
17. 2009-11-27
    listed $219,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Nicely maintained home just painted. Neutral decor throughout. Great walk out to yard and open space. Fully finished basement, 2 1/2 baths for the busy family and large deck off of large eat in kitchen. Ready to move in.

18. 2009-11-27
    listed $189,000

    Show marketing remark (220 chars)

    Nicely maintained home just painted. Neutral decor throughout. Great walk out to yard and open space. Fully finished basement, 2 1/2 baths for the busy family and large deck off of large eat in kitchen. Ready to move in.

19. 2005-09-27
    soldstatus $222,000
20. 1998-06-19
    soldstatus $102,900
21. 1998-05-26
    soldstatus $102,900
22. 1998-04-15
    historical
23. 1998-02-03
    listed $102,900
24. 1997-03-12
    historical
25. 1996-08-20
    historical
26. 1996-02-12
    listed
27. 1996-02-12
    listed
28. 1991-07-12
    soldstatus $86,000
29. 1988-10-10
    soldstatus $84,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,706 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,070 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$364/yr (+$30/mo · 13.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 26% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,484
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,645
• − Property taxes: −$2,706
• − Insurance: −$1,575
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,599
• − Management: −$2,599
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$9,164
• Taxable loss: −$5,304
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,273
• After-tax cash flow: $1,331/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air North

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #35
• US rank: #1269

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute B- Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air North, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+296.4% since first listed

30 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Sold (MLS) $335,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-04 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-01 Listed $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-24 Coming Soon $315,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-11 Sold (MLS) $232,600 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-11 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-11-08 Listed $235,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-10-27 Sold (Public Records) $189,000 Public Records
• 2010-10-21 Sold (MLS) $189,000 MRIS
• 2010-10-21 Sold (MLS) $189,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-06-08 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-05-10 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-05-04 Relisted — MRIS
• 2010-04-10 Pending — MRIS
• 2010-03-29 Price Changed $189,000 MRIS
• 2010-02-24 Price Changed $199,900 MRIS
• 2010-01-11 Price Changed $215,000 MRIS
• 2009-11-27 Listed $219,900 MRIS
• 2009-11-27 Listed $189,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2005-09-27 Sold (Public Records) $222,000 Public Records
• 1998-06-19 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records
• 1998-05-26 Sold (MLS) $102,900 MRIS
• 1998-04-15 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-02-03 Listed $102,900 MRIS
• 1997-03-12 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-08-20 Delisted — MRIS
• 1996-02-12 Listed — MRIS
• 1996-02-12 Listed — MRIS
• 1991-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $86,000 Public Records
• 1988-10-10 Sold (Public Records) $84,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,706 · +5.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.