70 Tn-140 · Cottage Grove, TN 38229

$70,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,135 sqft · SingleFamily · 57 Days on market

Built 1971 Poor condition 0.35 ac lot ↓ 7% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.5/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Key facts

• 0.35 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1971

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car carport; 2 open parking spaces
• Utilities: Private water source; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof; Single-level foundation (one story)
• Exterior features: Asphalt road frontage on a public maintained highway

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling fan cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $70k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $290 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($980 rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $68k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#399 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Henry County (rural): math 30% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #60 of 139 in TN (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 18 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $1k of equity ($484 loan paydown + $691 appreciation (1.0% local appreciation)).
• Henry County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (1.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $20k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($68k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $67,900 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.40% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.78%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.99% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.01×
• Total profit: $19,773
• Equity at exit: $23,852

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.76×
• Total profit: $54,183
• Equity at exit: $31,663

Cash invested: $19,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38229

• Home prices YoY: 0.5%
• Active inventory: 18
• Price-to-rent: 6.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $980 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$367
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$88 /mo · $1,050/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$206
• Net cashflow: $290

Break-even live

Break-even rent $612

Max offer price $70,000

Occupancy floor 65%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,500
• Closing costs: $2,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-19
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-24
   price $70,000
3. 2026-03-16
   listed $75,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,758
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,921
• − Property taxes: −$1,050
• − Insurance: −$350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$941
• − Management: −$941
• − Depreciation: −$2,036
• Taxable income: $2,520
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$605
• After-tax cash flow: $2,879/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

The property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including structural repairs, painting, and landscaping. Immediate action is needed to ensure safety and improve the property's value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed ceiling — Structural damage
• Major Exposed subfloor — Structural damage
• Major Exposed foundation — Structural damage
• Major Overgrown vegetation — Safety hazard

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting and cleaning — Improves appearance and safety
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and safety
• Both Structural repairs — Ensures safety and stability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed ceiling · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed subfloor · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed foundation · Structural damage	Major	$15,000–50,000
Overgrown vegetation · Safety hazard	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting and cleaning — Improves appearance and safety ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and safety ↑
• Both Structural repairs — Ensures safety and stability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 4701830
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $41,770
• Composite: 25.42/100
• National rank: #7457
• State rank: #60 of 139 in TN

Livability — Cottage Grove

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #399
• US rank: #24875

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,509

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 31,750 people
• By 2030: 31,277 · -1.5%
• By 2040: 30,064 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 28,675 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 25,767 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 22,318 · -29.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Hispanic / Latino 2% Two or more races 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.3) · D 21.8% · R 77.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -33.0pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -55.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.3 2020: R+51.1 2016: R+49.8 2012: R+30.2 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.99%
• Current HPI: 215.6697
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-6.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Pending — CWTAR
• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $70,000 CWTAR
• 2026-03-16 Listed $75,000 CWTAR