637 Pinellas Bayway S · Tierra Verde, FL 33715

$420,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,650 sqft · Other · 10 Days on market

Built 1991 Fair condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

Prestigious condo located on one of the most desired locations in the Tampa Bay Area. St. Pete Beaches and Ft Desoto Park 5 minutes away. Walking distance to several Tierra Verde restaurants, bars, and shops. Large community pool.

Key facts

• Built 1991
• Listed 9 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath other listed at $420k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-369 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $367k (12.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $375k (10.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $367k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 1.1% in Tierra Verde — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#646 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 26 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $-651 appreciation (-0.1% local appreciation)).
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $366,584 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.59%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.15% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-38,527
• Equity at exit: $118,712

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-10,847
• Equity at exit: $140,135

Cash invested: $117,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33715

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,747 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,203
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$525 /mo · $6,300/yr
• Insurance: −$175
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$787
• Net cashflow: $-369

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,214

Max offer price $366,584

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $105,000
• Closing costs: $12,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 26 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
637 Pinellas Bayway Unit 105 Tierra Verde, FL	2.0	2.5	1650	$4,000	$2.42	4d	1	0.02mi
719 Pinellas Bayway S #301 St Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1110	$2,800	$2.52	3d	1	0.03mi
745 Pinellas Bayway S #206 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1475	$2,950	$2.00	20d	1	0.09mi
745 Pinellas Bayway S #105 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1475	$3,000	$2.03	24d	1	0.09mi
751 Pinellas Bayway S #305 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1600	$3,200	$2.00	24d	1	0.13mi
910 Pinellas Bayway S #103 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1580	$3,900	$2.47	24d	1	0.24mi
853 2nd Ave S Tierra Verde, FL	3.0	2.0	1841	$4,300	$2.34	24d	1	0.29mi
375 Madeira Cir Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.0	1585	$4,200	$2.65	14d	1	0.31mi
1055 Pinellas Bayway S Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.5	2236	$6,000	$2.68	2d	1	0.33mi
346 Madeira Cir Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1585	$3,300	$2.08	3d	1	0.33mi
1101 Pinellas Bayway S #303 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	2014	$3,550	$1.76	24d	1	0.35mi
1101 Pinellas Bayway S Tierra Verde, FL	2.0	2.5	2014	$3,700	$1.84	24d	1	0.36mi
1117 Pinellas Bayway S #306 St Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.5	1918	$4,550	$2.37	2d	1	0.44mi
1117 Pinellas Bayway S #303 St Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1918	$3,200	$1.67	17d	1	0.44mi
363 Pinellas Bayway S #50 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1365	$4,800	$3.52	4d	1	0.44mi
126 1st St E #210 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1220	$3,700	$3.03	3d	1	0.60mi
113 1st St E #103 Saint Petersburg, FL	2.0	2.0	1220	$3,750	$3.07	17d	1	0.67mi
1575 Pinellas Bayway S Unit 1575 St. Petersburg, FL	3.0	3.5	2100	$3,700	$1.76	24d	1	0.78mi
337 1st St W Saint Petersburg, FL	3.0	2.0	1679	$4,800	$2.86	24d	1	0.80mi
113 4th Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$7,500	$4.69	1d	1	0.86mi
106 7th Ave St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1599	$9,000	$5.63	24d	1	0.89mi
108 11th Ave St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$7,000	$6.49	24d	1	0.95mi
2460 E Vina del Mar Blvd St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	2109	$7,500	$3.56	4d	1	1.23mi
330 N Tessier Dr St Pete Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1352	$3,500	$2.59	23d	1	1.33mi
301 N Tessier Dr Unit 1545798P St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1894	$4,355	$2.30	12d	1	1.37mi
291 N Tessier Dr St Pete Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1975	$6,500	$3.29	4d	1	1.38mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,000 Active 10 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,000 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   remarks 230-char remark
6. 2026-06-07
   listed $420,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 28 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,961
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,527
• − Property taxes: −$6,300
• − Insurance: −$7,219
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,597
• − Management: −$3,597
• − Depreciation: −$12,218
• Taxable loss: −$11,496
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,759
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,671/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Fair 45/100 Cosmetic rehab

The home is in fair condition with average exterior and landscaping. Minor improvements in landscaping and painting can significantly enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters.
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value.
• Both Landscaping upgrades — Aesthetic improvements can increase both resale and rental value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more buyers or renters. ↑
• Both Painting exterior siding — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value. ↑
• Both Landscaping upgrades — Aesthetic improvements can increase both resale and rental value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tierra Verde

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #646
• US rank: #12766

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tierra Verde, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 7,932
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,032
• Household income: $102,782
• Rent vs Own: 9.2% rent · 90.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 106.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Hungarian 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.15%
• Current HPI: 264.9727
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $420,000 FSBO.com