6384 Keg Creek Dr · Appling, GA 30802

$130,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,248 sqft · Other public records

Built 1997 0.51 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.4/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

#Retreat The perfect opportunity to create your dream lake getaway, private retreat, or income producing Airbnb! This charming home offers a comfortable and functional layout ideal for relaxing weekends or full time lake living. The spacious living room provides a cozy gathering space, while the galley style kitchen features an electric stove and an over under refrigerator, making meal prep simple and efficient. Just off the kitchen, the breakfast area overlooks the cooking space, creating an open, connected feel that's perfect for casual dining and entertaining. A dedicated laundry room adds convenience, and the hall bathroom includes a single vanity with a cultured marble top and a shower

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 1997

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $551 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $130k).
• Cap rate 12.0% vs local median 1.1% in Appling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#457 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A; Watch: housing D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Columbia County (suburban): math 49% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #13 of 174 in GA (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: North Columbia Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #79 of 1,228 statewide, top 7%, 459 students, 22% FRL); Harlem Middle School (math 36% / reading 42%, grade F, #155 of 470 statewide, top 33%, 981 students, 39% FRL); Harlem High School (math 8% / reading 22%, grade F, #297 of 424 statewide, top 74%, 1,223 students, 33% FRL).
• Market conditions: 154 active listings in the ZIP; 1,213 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($899 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected at +62% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 0 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wind risk, 50% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.44% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.35%
• DSCR: 1.91
• GRM: 5.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.91×
• Total profit: $105,926
• Equity at exit: $117,114

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.5%
• Equity multiple: 8.81×
• Total profit: $284,437
• Equity at exit: $252,561

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30802

• Home prices YoY: 4.8%
• Active inventory: 154
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,869 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax from tax record: −$123 /mo · $1,481/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$393
• Net cashflow: $551

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $130,000

Occupancy floor 66%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-11
   historical
2. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
3. 2026-04-28
   historical
4. 2026-04-28
   historical
5. 2026-03-27
   price $130,000
6. 2026-02-27
   listed $140,000 Active
7. 2026-02-27
   listed $130,000
8. 2021-02-05
   historical
9. 2020-08-05
   listed $155,000
10. 2020-08-05
    listed $155,000
11. 2006-12-11
    soldstatus $135,000
12. 2006-12-11
    soldstatus $135,000
13. 1984-06-01
    soldstatus $9,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,481 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 50% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,429
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,481
• − Insurance: −$1,448
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,794
• − Management: −$1,794
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable income: $4,848
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,163
• After-tax cash flow: $5,446/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia County
• NCES district ID: 1301410
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $69,358
• Composite: 45.04/100
• National rank: #2695
• State rank: #13 of 174 in GA

Livability — Appling

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #21719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing D+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,375

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,073 people
• By 2030: 212,277 · +12.3%
• By 2040: 259,480 · +37.2%
• By 2050: 306,991 · +62.4%
• By 2075: 421,213 · +122.8%
• By 2100: 496,722 · +162.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 17% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Slovak 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.6) · D 36.8% · R 62.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +17.0pp toward D · 2008: -42.7pp · 2024: -25.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.6 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+37.7 2012: R+43.0 2008: R+42.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.67%
• Current HPI: 339.0061
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+1268.4% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-28 Pending — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-04-28 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2026-03-27 Price Changed $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $130,000 Hive MLS
• 2026-02-27 Listed $140,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-02-05 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2020-08-05 Listed $155,000 Hive MLS
• 2020-08-05 Listed $155,000 Hive MLS
• 2006-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-11 Sold (Public Records) $135,000 Public Records
• 1984-06-01 Sold (Public Records) $9,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,481 · -10.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.