44 Buchanan Ave · Copiague, NY 11701

$350,000

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,572 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 61 Days on market

Built 1938 8,400 sqft lot Est $602k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.6/10.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House Need To Be Lifted, Lot Of Potencial, Sold As Is With Not Warranties And Representation By Seller. No Miss This Opprtunity To Create Your Own Dream Home., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

Key facts

• Waterfront dream
• Perfectly located
• 8,400 sq ft lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT DREAM
• PERFECTLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $664 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $350k).
• Recommended offer: $329k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.6% vs local median 2.8% in Copiague — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#611 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, commute B; Watch: crime C-, amenities F, cost of living F.
• Copiague Union Free School District (suburban): math 38% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #506 of 590 in NY (top 86%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Copiague Middle School (math 13% / reading 38%, grade F, #597 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 1,061 students, 55% FRL); Walter G O'Connell Copiague High School (math 87% / reading 95%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 1,524 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 55% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 58% at this address vs 38% district-wide (+20 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Copiague Union Free School District average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: 123 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 44% of the median local income ($117k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($329k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 13y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $250k (42%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $350k implies a 75% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1938 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $329,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1938 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.57%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.13%
• DSCR: 1.36
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $602,076
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
55 Dawes Ave	0.07mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,600 (+2%)	22mo	$560,000	$350	67
2 Perkins Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,575 (+0%)	8mo	$648,000	$411	63
37 New Point Pl	0.34mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,656 (+5%)	6mo	$635,000	$383	61
65 S Bayview Ave	0.44mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,602 (+2%)	14mo	$740,000	$462	51
32 George Brown Plz	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	1,748 (+11%)	14mo	$600,000	$343	50
16 Guilette Pl	0.42mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,694 (+8%)	12mo	$605,000	$357	49
22 Manor Ln	0.75mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,607 (+2%)	7mo	$650,000	$404	47
255 Rose St	0.63mi	5/2.0	1,734 (+10%)	8mo	$660,000	$381	43
330 East Dr	0.65mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (+8%)	7mo	$560,000	$330	41
149 Warwick Ave	0.59mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,788 (+14%)	8mo	$827,500	$463	33
4 Coles Ave	0.73mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,755 (+12%)	11mo	$755,000	$430	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-14,162
• Equity at exit: $52,186

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.44×
• Total profit: $43,137
• Equity at exit: $30,262

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11701

• Active inventory: 123
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,271 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$729 /mo · $8,746/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$897
• Net cashflow: $664

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,431

Max offer price $350,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $862	-5% $763	+0% $664	+5% $565	+10% $466
Rent	-10% $327	-5% $496	+0% $664	+5% $833	+10% $1,002
Rate	-1.0pp $841	-0.5pp $753	base $664	+0.5pp $574	+1.0pp $481

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
286 Beachview St Copiague, NY	4.0	3.0	2000	$5,500	$2.75	44d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2024-12-13
   status Pending
2. 2024-11-23
   status Active
3. 2024-11-13
   status Active
4. 2024-11-01
   status Active
5. 2024-10-28
   status Active
6. 2024-10-24
   price $350,000
7. 2024-10-02
   price $525,000
8. 2024-09-13
   listed $599,999 Active
9. 2017-10-26
   soldstatus $200,000
10. 2017-09-29
    soldstatus $200,000 Closed 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    House Need To Be Lifted, Lot Of Potencial, Sold As Is With Not Warranties And Representation By Seller. No Miss This Opprtunity To Create Your Own Dream Home., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

11. 2017-09-02
    status Under Contract 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    House Need To Be Lifted, Lot Of Potencial, Sold As Is With Not Warranties And Representation By Seller. No Miss This Opprtunity To Create Your Own Dream Home., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

12. 2017-08-22
    listed $265,000 New 228-char remark

    Show marketing remark (228 chars)

    House Need To Be Lifted, Lot Of Potencial, Sold As Is With Not Warranties And Representation By Seller. No Miss This Opprtunity To Create Your Own Dream Home., Additional information: Appearance:Mint,Separate Hotwater Heater:Yes

13. 2017-08-01
    historical
14. 2017-01-27
    listed $265,000 New
15. 2016-08-24
    soldstatus $153,700
16. 2016-02-03
    soldstatus $425,000
17. 2014-05-31
    historical
18. 2014-04-10
    listed $275,000
19. 2014-03-21
    historical
20. 2013-03-21
    listed $210,000
21. 2011-04-21
    soldstatus $422,500
22. 2005-08-02
    soldstatus $515,000
23. 2001-01-04
    soldstatus $250,000
24. 1990-02-08
    soldstatus $147,000
25. 1989-07-21
    soldstatus $154,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,746 · $729/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,746 · $729/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $51,257
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$8,746
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,101
• − Management: −$4,101
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable income: $2,772
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$665
• After-tax cash flow: $7,306/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Copiague Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3608310
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $69,215
• Composite: 35.09/100
• National rank: #5020
• State rank: #506 of 590 in NY

Livability — Copiague

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #611
• US rank: #11032

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Copiague, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 679,920 people
• City population: 21,940
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,509
• Household income: $117,033
• Rent vs Own: 29.2% rent · 70.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 959.0

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 37% Black 28% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 12% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 4% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 20% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -345.15%
• Current HPI: 306.4465
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+127.3% since first listed

25 events — show timeline

• 2024-12-13 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-23 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-13 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-28 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-24 Price Changed $350,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-02 Price Changed $525,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-13 Listed $599,999 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-10-26 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2017-09-29 Sold (MLS) $200,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-09-02 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-22 Listed $265,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-27 Listed $265,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $153,700 Public Records
• 2016-02-03 Sold (Public Records) $425,000 Public Records
• 2014-05-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-04-10 Listed $275,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-03-21 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-03-21 Listed $210,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-21 Sold (Public Records) $422,500 Public Records
• 2005-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $515,000 Public Records
• 2001-01-04 Sold (Public Records) $250,000 Public Records
• 1990-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $147,000 Public Records
• 1989-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $154,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,746 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.