1530 Gardenia Grove Ln · Houston, TX 77532

$223,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,760 sqft · SingleFamily · 17 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $192/mo HOA · 8% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Oxford Floor Plan - This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, which are comfortable spaces for household members and overnight guests. The completion date, prices and features may vary and are subject to change. Please verify with Lennar directly. Photos are for illustrative purposes only.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Open floorplan
• Secondary bedrooms

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OWNER'S SUITE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• SECONDARY BEDROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Community Solutions association with an annual fee of $2,300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Under construction (new construction); Single-story (all rooms listed on the first floor); Entry on slab foundation
• Construction: Built in 2026; Brick and cement siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Gas oven; Gas range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (15 x 15); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 11); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10); Bedroom on the first floor (10 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric and gas); Central air conditioning (electric and gas)
• Interior features: Breakfast bar; Kitchen/family room combo; Kitchen/dining combo; Separate shower; Tub/shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Gas dryer hookup

🏗️ New construction. The $223,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $251,680.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-25 ($-298/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $224k).
• Recommended offer: $221k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Crosby ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #369 of 826 in TX (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crosby Middle (math 36% / reading 37%, grade F, #786 of 1,662 statewide, top 48%, 1,549 students, 60% FRL); Highpoint School East (Crosby) (20 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 70% FRL vs 50% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.5%/yr); 1172 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($221k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $220,630 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $251,680
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1530 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,760 (0%)	0mo	$223,990	$127	100
18506 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.11mi	4/2.0	1,760 (0%)	1mo	$205,790	$117	94
1511 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.05mi	4/2.0	1,720 (-2%)	1mo	$205,290	$119	93
1542 Marigold Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,724 (-2%)	1mo	$246,990	$143	83
1602 Marigold Bend Dr	0.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,635 (-7%)	1mo	$246,190	$151	75
18327 Ginger Glen Ln	0.33mi	4/2.0	1,859 (+6%)	1mo	$308,990	$166	74
18530 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.08mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	1mo	$238,990	$121	74
1734 Indigo Chase Dr	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,900 (+8%)	1mo	$235,140	$124	73
18502 Camellia Terrace Dr	0.11mi	4/2.5	1,968 (+12%)	1mo	$231,990	$118	72
1531 Gardenia Grove Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (-14%)	1mo	$270,990	$178	70
1719 Indigo Chase Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,602 (-9%)	0mo	$290,990	$182	67
1730 Indigo Chase Dr	0.28mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,949 (+11%)	1mo	$309,990	$159	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.48% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-45,844
• Equity at exit: $37,526

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-55,798
• Equity at exit: $21,761

Cash invested: $70,470 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77532

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 1.5%
• Active inventory: 1172
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,413 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,320
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$315 /mo · $3,775/yr
• Insurance: −$105
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$507
• Net cashflow: $-25

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,445

Max offer price $248,091

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,920
• Closing costs: $7,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1519 Gardenia Grove Ln Crosby, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,800	$1.23	24d	1	0.03mi
18707 Antler Trails Ct Crosby, TX	4.0	2.5	2547	$2,361	$0.93	24d	1	0.78mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-07
   status $223,990 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $223,990 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $223,990 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $223,990 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $223,990 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $223,990 Active 13 DOM
7. 2026-05-18
   listed $239,090 Active 587-char remark
8. 2026-05-16
   price $239,090 401-char remark
9. 2026-05-15
   listed $229,090 Active 401-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,959
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,098
• − Property taxes: −$3,775
• − Insurance: −$1,258
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,317
• − Management: −$2,317
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$7,322
• Taxable loss: −$4,431
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $766/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 21 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a modern and well-maintained interior and exterior. It is move-in ready with minor cosmetic updates that could further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and value
• Both Add outdoor landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Freshens look and improves energy efficiency ↑
• Both Upgrade lighting fixtures — Enhances ambiance and value ↑
• Both Add outdoor landscaping — Improves curb appeal and value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crosby ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $61,079
• Composite: 35.14/100
• National rank: #5012
• State rank: #369 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 33,780
• Household income: $92,201
• Rent vs Own: 13.9% rent · 86.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 382.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 21%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -105.63%
• Current HPI: 264.0126
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.48%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-6.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $223,990 HARMLS
• 2026-05-18 Listed $239,090 HARMLS