4664 SW 40th Pl · Ocala, FL 34474

$239,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,604 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 2011 7,841 sqft lot Est $263k · 9% under $114/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.6/15.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome home to this spacious and inviting 4-bedroom, 2-bath residence located in the highly sought-after Fore Ranch community of SW Ocala, "in a great location priced to sell!". This home offers the perfect blend of modern comfort and established neighborhood charm, featuring an open-concept layout that seamlessly connects the living, dining, and kitchen areas with granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and ample cabinetry, making it ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. Step outside to a large, enclosed lanai, perfect for relaxing or hosting guests, with a spacious backyard beyond for gardening, play, or enjoying the F

Key facts

• Spacious backyard
• Community pool
• Granite countertops

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• LARGE ENCLOSED LANAI
• SPACIOUS BACKYARD
• COMMUNITY POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-56 ($-667/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $231k (3.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $216k (9.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $216k (9.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Ocala — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#476 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Marion (rural): math 42% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #61 of 73 in FL (top 84%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 295 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,071 units permitted in Marion County in 2024 (534 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Marion County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $216,469 (9.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.01%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.00%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $263,056
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4984 SW 40th Pl	0.26mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+14%)	22mo	$300,000	$164	42
3983 SW 51st Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (+14%)	10mo	$274,000	$150	42
3950 SW 54th Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (+7%)	11mo	$319,000	$186	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-48,262
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.6%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-69,784
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34474

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,165 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$299 /mo · $3,585/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$114
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$455
• Net cashflow: $-56

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,235

Max offer price $230,960

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $110	-5% $27	+0% $-56	+5% $-138	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-227	-5% $-141	+0% $-56	+5% $30	+10% $115
Rate	-1.0pp $65	-0.5pp $5	base $-56	+0.5pp $-117	+1.0pp $-180

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5134 SW 41st St Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,250	$1.03	14d	1	0.39mi
4095 SW 51st Ct Ocala, FL	4.0	2.0	1944	$1,995	$1.03	14d	1	0.45mi
4970 SW 45th St Ocala, FL	3.0	2.5	1542	$1,800	$1.17	14d	1	0.46mi
4820 SW 48th Ave Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,274	$1.98	14d	34	0.70mi
3640 SW 38th Ter Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1209	$2,299	$1.90	22d	23	0.71mi
4304 SW 54th Ct Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,900	$1.11	22d	1	0.79mi
4900 SW 46th Ct Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1178	$1,725	$1.46	14d	32	0.82mi
4535 SW 54th Street Rd Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1024	$2,104	$2.05	14d	37	0.84mi
5697 SW 49th Rd Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,909	$1.88	14d	17	1.06mi
4015 SW 54th Street Rd Ocala, FL	4.0	2.5	2045	$2,500	$1.22	14d	1	1.13mi
2610 SW 36th Dr Ocala, FL	3.0	2.0	1616	$2,900	$1.79	14d	1	1.41mi
5101 SW 60th Street Rd Ocala, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1228	$2,027	$1.65	14d	28	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $114 · $1,368/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 689-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $239,000 Pending 27 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,976
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$3,585
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,078
• − Management: −$2,078
• − HOA: −$1,368
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable loss: −$4,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $454/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Marion
• NCES district ID: 1201260
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,015
• Composite: 35.61/100
• National rank: #4890
• State rank: #61 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ocala

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #476
• US rank: #8461

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocala, FL
• County: Marion County · 315,796 people
• City population: 263,375
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• Population (ZIP): 20,258
• Household income: $65,291
• Rent vs Own: 55.8% rent · 44.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1062.0

Population outlook (Marion County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 365,905 people
• By 2030: 376,768 · +3.0%
• By 2040: 396,555 · +8.4%
• By 2050: 412,723 · +12.8%
• By 2075: 446,090 · +21.9%
• By 2100: 436,193 · +19.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 13% Two or more races 8% Asian 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Marion

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.6) · D 33.8% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.0pp toward R · 2008: -11.6pp · 2024: -31.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.6 2020: R+25.9 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+16.2 2008: R+11.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.16%
• Current HPI: 196.5607
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.12%
• Metro: Ocala, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B