203 Tony Cir #203 · Sewell, NJ 08051

$99,971

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 650 sqft · SingleFamily · 175 Days on market

Built 2000 Est $73k · 37% over ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the Highly desirable Maple Woods over 55 + development! This well kept home is ready for a new owner, and has been inspected by Management of development!Maplewoods is a prestine common area kept grounds and has a Community Center for owners to use with full kitchem, pool table, tv, for owners to use for Birthday parties, holidays, get togethers! this spacious two bedroom one full bath is ready to move in.

Key facts

• Community center
• Built 2000
• Listed 174 days

Tags

• MAPLE WOODS DEVELOPMENT
• COMMUNITY CENTER
• COMMON AREA KEPT GROUNDS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease fee $750 per month; Land lease approximately 1 year remaining; Property manager present

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric cooling; Natural gas heating and hot water
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single wide; Located in a senior community (55+); Land lease ownership
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Building not winterized; Year built estimated
• Exterior features: Not in a federal flood zone; Above grade other structures

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on main level; 1 full bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning (electric); Natural gas hot water
• Interior features: Not furnished; Two or more access exits

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $798 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 4.3% in Sewell — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Mantua Township School District (suburban): math 27% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #210 of 472 in NJ (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 64 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,047 units permitted in Gloucester County in 2024 (183 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Gloucester County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $87,974 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.88% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.20%
• DSCR: 2.52
• GRM: 4.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $72,800
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
465 Berkley Rd	0.34mi	1/1.0 (-1)	672 (+3%)	6mo	$75,000	$112	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $34,637
• Equity at exit: $14,906

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.42×
• Total profit: $95,701
• Equity at exit: $8,644

Cash invested: $27,992 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08051

• Home prices YoY: -23.3%
• Active inventory: 64
• Price-to-rent: 4.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,884 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$125 /mo · $1,500/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $875

Max offer price $99,971

Occupancy floor 53%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $867	-5% $832	+0% $798	+5% $763	+10% $729
Rent	-10% $649	-5% $723	+0% $798	+5% $872	+10% $947
Rate	-1.0pp $848	-0.5pp $823	base $798	+0.5pp $772	+1.0pp $745

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,993
• Closing costs: $2,999
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
454 Heather Dr N Mantua Township, NJ	1.0–2.0	1.0	798	$2,227	$2.79	0d	6	1.44mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $99,971 Active 175 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,971 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,971 Active 171 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,971 Active 170 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,971 Active 169 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,971 Active 167 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,971 Active 166 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,971 Active 163 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,971 Active 162 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $99,971 Active 161 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,971 Active 158 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $99,971 Active 157 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,971 Active 156 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,971 Active 155 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,971 Active 154 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    price $99,971
17. 2025-12-28
    listed $109,971 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,600
• − Property taxes: −$1,500
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,809
• − Management: −$1,809
• − Depreciation: −$2,908
• Taxable income: $8,486
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,037
• After-tax cash flow: $7,536/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mantua Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409600
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $81,565
• Composite: 37.41/100
• National rank: #4422
• State rank: #210 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Sewell

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Gloucester County · 160,422 people
• City population: 38,159
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• Population (ZIP): 12,474
• Household income: $92,071
• Rent vs Own: 20.5% rent · 79.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 155.0

Population outlook (Gloucester County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 298,895 people
• By 2030: 299,031 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 294,020 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 284,188 · -4.9%
• By 2075: 260,720 · -12.8%
• By 2100: 229,565 · -23.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Gloucester

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 50.6% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: 12.2pp · 2024: -2.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.8 2020: D+1.9 2016: R+0.4 2012: D+10.5 2008: D+12.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -90.45%
• Current HPI: 297.7611
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

-9.1% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $99,971 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $109,971 BRIGHT MLS