6749 Ellis Rd · Berrydale, FL 32565

$110,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,064 sqft · Manufactured public records · 307 Days on market

Built 2019 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful property for those who want the perfect place to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city. Zoned AG-RR. Corn being farmed in rear of property.

Key facts

• Outdoor entertaining
• Spacious lot
• Private bathroom

Tags

• SPACIOUS LOT
• MODERN KITCHEN
• PRIVATE BATHROOM
• WIDE-OPEN YARD
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Approximately 1 acre lot
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway with open parking
• Utilities: Circuit breakers and copper wiring; Septic tank; Paved road access (county maintained)
• Home design: Mobile/Manufactured or modular home; One story
• Construction: Off-grade foundation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck; Does not allow horses; Central access to the lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom on the first floor, approximately 13.5' x 12.5'; Second bedroom on the first floor, approximately 13' x 10'; Third bedroom on the first floor, approximately 10' x 10'
• Flooring: Carpet; Simulated wood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Carpet and simulated wood flooring; Eat-in kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $69 ($832/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 40/100 on livability (#910 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Santa Rosa (suburban): math 63% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #8 of 73 in FL (top 11%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 1,983 units permitted in Santa Rosa County in 2024 (128 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Rosa County population projected at +31% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 307 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 8y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $90k; 22% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 307 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.70%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $64,323
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $185,945
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32565

• Home prices YoY: 11.4%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,016 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $69

Break-even live

Break-even rent $928

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $132	-5% $100	+0% $69	+5% $38	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $29	+0% $69	+5% $109	+10% $150
Rate	-1.0pp $125	-0.5pp $97	base $69	+0.5pp $41	+1.0pp $12

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 307 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 306 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 305 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 304 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $110,000 Active 302 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $110,000 Active 299 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 298 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 297 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 296 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $110,000 Active 293 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $110,000 Active 292 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 291 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 290 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 289 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 288 DOM
16. 2026-02-06
    price $120,000
17. 2025-08-15
    listed $130,000 Active
18. 2024-07-23
    soldstatus $90,000
19. 2018-10-30
    soldstatus $31,000 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Beautiful property for those who want the perfect place to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city. Zoned AG-RR. Corn being farmed in rear of property.

20. 2018-07-29
    listed $31,000 161-char remark

    Show marketing remark (161 chars)

    Beautiful property for those who want the perfect place to get away from the hustle and bustle of the city. Zoned AG-RR. Corn being farmed in rear of property.

21. 2015-10-16
    soldstatus $9,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,193
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$975
• − Management: −$975
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$998
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$240
• After-tax cash flow: $1,071/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Rosa
• NCES district ID: 1201650
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,161
• Composite: 53.12/100
• National rank: #1511
• State rank: #8 of 73 in FL

Livability — Berrydale

• Score: 40/100
• State rank: #910
• US rank: #27337

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Berrydale, FL
• Population (ZIP): 5,653

Population outlook (Santa Rosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 195,978 people
• By 2030: 209,782 · +7.0%
• By 2040: 235,293 · +20.1%
• By 2050: 256,408 · +30.8%
• By 2075: 298,074 · +52.1%
• By 2100: 303,216 · +54.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Asian 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Chinese 4% Spanish 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Rosa

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+51.0) · D 24.1% · R 75.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.0pp toward R · 2008: -47.9pp · 2024: -51.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+51.0 2020: R+46.5 2016: R+53.5 2012: R+52.6 2008: R+47.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.17%
• Current HPI: 324.7547
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+1233.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-06 Price Changed $120,000 PARMLS
• 2025-08-15 Listed $130,000 PARMLS
• 2024-07-23 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2018-10-30 Sold (MLS) $31,000 PARMLS
• 2018-07-29 Listed $31,000 PARMLS
• 2015-10-16 Sold (Public Records) $9,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,328 · +11.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.