1432 John Wells Rd · Hinesville, GA 31313

$279,995

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,976 sqft · Manufactured · 16 Days on market

Manufactured home Built 2026 Good condition 15 ac lot 2-car garage $142/sqft · 12% below area Est $317k · 12% under ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.1/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Appreciation +2.5/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• DSCR +0.4/10.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -3.0

Listing remarks

15 ACRES!!! !! ENERGY EFFICIENT HOME! Don't miss out on this Charming NEW 4 bedroom / 3-bathroom home that HAS IT ALL!!! Open and inviting floor plan, elegant white cabinetry, upgraded lighting fixtures and recessed lighting. Complete modern home essentials with a comfortable layout. Double vanity in master bathroom with a tub/shower. Brand new appliances! Home has a 1-year manufacture warranty. VISIT the property today. Seller is a licensed Realtor in GA. Exterior photos enhanced for lawn purposes. Homes qualify for FHA and VA loans with a permanent foundation.

Key facts

• 15 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath manufactured listed at $280k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-521 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $205k (26.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $179k (36.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $179k (36.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.1% vs local median 5.1% in Hinesville — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#51 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, commute D+, crime F.
• Liberty County (urban): math 19% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #133 of 174 in GA (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 1067 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 471 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($60k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($276k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 98% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,937 (36.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.98%
• DSCR: 0.64
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $317,169
• List price: $279,995
• Delta: -11.72%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
831 John Wells Rd	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,151 (+9%)	14mo	$400,000	$186	51
560 Margaret Rd	0.30mi	4/2.0	2,128 (+8%)	23mo	$232,900	$109	50
1903 John Wells Rd	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,128 (+8%)	20mo	$260,000	$122	48
34 Ammons Ln	1.33mi	4/3.0	1,976 (0%)	25mo	$229,000	$116	45
124 Murrell Rd	1.35mi	4/3.0	1,976 (0%)	25mo	$242,500	$123	45
108 Dawson Ln	1.24mi	4/2.0	1,929 (-2%)	15mo	$220,000	$114	44
524 Hodges Rd	1.17mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,035 (+3%)	8mo	$348,000	$171	44
537 Margaret Rd	0.27mi	4/2.0	2,437 (+23%)	21mo	$250,000	$103	41
430 Preston Place Pl NE	1.35mi	4/3.0	1,905 (-4%)	22mo	$259,994	$136	41
35 Margaret Rd	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,848 (-6%)	20mo	$183,200	$99	41
91 Murrell Rd	1.44mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,792 (-9%)	19mo	$239,000	$133	25
4850 NE County Line Rd	1.41mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-20%)	27mo	$210,000	$132	11

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.41% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-74,108
• Equity at exit: $41,748

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-88,026
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,399 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active
• Median asking: $239,992 ($125/sqft)
• Median days on market: 91 d
• This list price: 100% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +28.8% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 31313

• Home prices YoY: -27.1%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 1067
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $-521

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $204,550

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-328	-5% $-425	+0% $-521	+5% $-618	+10% $-715
Rent	-10% $-663	-5% $-592	+0% $-521	+5% $-451	+10% $-380
Rate	-1.0pp $-380	-0.5pp $-450	base $-521	+0.5pp $-594	+1.0pp $-668

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,999
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10179 GA Highway 196 W Hinesville, GA	4.0	3.0	2037	$2,450	$1.20	0d	1	1.42mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garageCarport2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home
• Construction: Under constructionVinyl sidingShingle roofBlock foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, electric range, range hood, refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Crawl-space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $279,995 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $279,995 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $279,995 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $279,995 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   pricedays on market $279,995 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   days on market $279,998 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-11-01
   days on market $279,998 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   price $279,998 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $289,995 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $289,995 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    pricedays on market $289,995 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $289,996 Active 5 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    pricestatusdays on marketlisting id $289,996 Active 4 DOM
14. 2026-08-20
    statusdays on market $289,980 Pending 70 DOM
15. 2026-07-18
    pricedays on market $289,980 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-07-16
    days on market $289,981 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    pricedays on market $289,981 Active 66 DOM
18. 2026-07-14
    days on market $289,983 Active 65 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    price $289,983 Active 64 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $289,984 Active 64 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $289,984 Active 63 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    pricedays on market $289,984 Active 62 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $289,985 Active 61 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    pricedays on market $289,985 Active 60 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    pricedays on market $289,987 Active 59 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $289,988 Active 58 DOM
27. 2026-07-07
    price $289,988 Active 57 DOM
28. 2026-07-06
    days on market $289,989 Active 57 DOM
29. 2026-07-05
    days on market $289,989 Active 56 DOM
30. 2026-07-04
    days on market $289,989 Active 55 DOM
31. 2026-07-03
    days on market $289,989 Active 54 DOM
32. 2026-07-02
    days on market $289,989 Active 53 DOM
33. 2026-07-01
    days on market $289,989 Active 52 DOM
34. 2026-06-30
    days on market $289,989 Active 51 DOM
35. 2026-06-29
    days on market $289,989 Active 50 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,989 Active 49 DOM
37. 2026-06-28
    days on market $289,989 Active 48 DOM
38. 2026-06-27
    days on market $289,989 Active 47 DOM
39. 2026-06-26
    pricedays on market $289,989 Active 46 DOM
40. 2026-06-23
    days on market $289,990 Active 43 DOM
41. 2026-06-21
    days on market $289,990 Active 42 DOM
42. 2026-06-19
    days on market $289,990 Active 40 DOM
43. 2026-06-18
    days on market $289,990 Active 39 DOM
44. 2026-06-17
    days on market $289,990 Active 38 DOM
45. 2026-06-16
    days on market $289,990 Active 37 DOM
46. 2026-06-15
    days on market $289,990 Active 36 DOM
47. 2026-06-14
    days on market $289,990 Active 34 DOM
48. 2026-06-13
    pricedays on market $289,990 Active 33 DOM
49. 2026-06-10
    pricedays on market $289,992 Active 31 DOM
50. 2026-06-09
    days on market $289,993 Active 30 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 98% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,472
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$11,392
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,734
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,522/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This modern, energy-efficient home is in excellent condition with a good layout and high-end finishes. It's move-in ready and would benefit from some exterior painting and landscaping to further enhance its curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior siding — Enhances curb appeal and can increase the home's value ↑
• Resale Landscaping the front yard — Improves curb appeal and can increase the home's value ↑
• Rental Adding a small outdoor lighting system — Enhances safety and can attract tenants ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 26/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Taylors Creek Elementary School F GA #582/1,228 Nat'l #24,950/41,679 Middle Lewis Frasier Middle School F GA #271/470 Nat'l #9,793/14,009 High Bradwell Institute F GA #243/424 Nat'l #14,491/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Liberty County
• NCES district ID: 1303300
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $43,911
• Composite: 20.2/100
• National rank: #8630
• State rank: #133 of 174 in GA

B Composite livability gradescore 73/100

Livability — Hinesville

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #5200

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute D+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 58,689 people
• City population: 42,838
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• Population (ZIP): 42,838
• Household income: $60,233
• Rent vs Own: 50.1% rent · 49.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 8% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 58,689 people
• By 2030: 57,670 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 55,750 · -5.0%
• By 2050: 54,155 · -7.7%
• By 2075: 58,947 · +0.4%
• By 2100: 66,919 · +14.0%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 47% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 7%
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: D (+17.4) · D 58.5% · R 41.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 28.4pp · 2024: 17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+17.4 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+21.2 2012: D+30.2 2008: D+28.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.50%
• Current HPI: 208.0927
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.41%
• Metro: Hinesville, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garageCarport2 covered parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home
• Construction: Under constructionVinyl sidingShingle roofBlock foundation

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, electric range, range hood, refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Crawl-space foundation
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-10-27 Price Changed $289,996 HABR
• 2026-10-26 Price Changed $289,997 HABR
• 2026-10-23 Price Changed $289,999 HABR
• 2026-10-23 Listed $289,998 HABR
• 2026-07-17 Price Changed $289,980 HABR
• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $289,981 HABR
• 2026-07-15 Price Changed $289,982 HABR
• 2026-07-14 Price Changed $289,983 HABR
• 2026-07-10 Price Changed $289,984 HABR
• 2026-07-09 Price Changed $289,985 HABR
• 2026-07-08 Price Changed $289,986 HABR
• 2026-07-07 Price Changed $289,987 HABR
• 2026-07-06 Price Changed $289,988 HABR
• 2026-06-23 Price Changed $289,989 HABR
• 2026-06-12 Price Changed $289,990 HABR
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $289,991 HABR
• 2026-06-09 Price Changed $289,992 HABR
• 2026-06-05 Price Changed $289,993 HABR
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $289,994 HABR
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $289,995 HABR
• 2026-05-26 Price Changed $289,996 HABR
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $289,997 HABR
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $289,998 HABR
• 2026-05-15 Price Changed $314,997 HABR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $314,998 HABR
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $314,999 HABR