179 Timbercrest Ln · Hot Springs, AR 71913

$58,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,120 sqft · Manufactured public records · 142 Days on market

Built 1974 $52/sqft · 18% above area Est $57k · at est. ↓ 23% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.8/15.0
• Rent growth +4.1/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Extensively renovated over the past three years, this inviting home combines updated finishes with warm farmhouse character. Features include oak hardwood flooring, handcrafted live-edge maple countertops, and vintage-style Unique Appliances in the kitchen, along with fresh interior paint, modern lighting, upgraded doors, and custom window coverings throughout. The primary suite offers new vinyl plank flooring and a never-used walk-in bath/shower with accessibility features and a custom live-edge maple vanity. Both full bathrooms have been completely renovated, the half bath has been updated, and accessibility was thoughtfully considered throughout. An electric stove-style fireplace adds cozy charm, while the newer HVAC system provides efficient year-round comfort. Additional amenities include a screened-in porch, workshop area, storage shed, ramped deck access, and generous driveway parking. Located in Timbercrest, a peaceful 55+ community close to shopping, dining, Oaklawn Racetrack, and more, this home delivers comfort, style, and convenience in one exceptional package!

Key facts

• Screened-in porch
• Workshop area
• Walk-in bath shower

Tags

• OAK HARDWOOD FLOORING
• NEW VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• WALK-IN BATH SHOWER
• CUSTOM LIVE-EDGE MAPLE VANITY
• SCREENED-IN PORCH
• WORKSHOP AREA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.3% vs local median 2.8% in Hot Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#140 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D, crime F, amenities F.
• Hot Springs School District (urban): math 24% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #195 of 238 in AR (top 82%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 72% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.4%/yr); 986 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($56k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 6.4% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 142 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 142 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.54% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 60.86%
• DSCR: 3.71
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $57,105
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: 1.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3910 Central Ave #12	0.25mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (-3%)	21mo	$72,500	$67	61
3910 Central Ave #9	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-15%)	9mo	$30,000	$32	48
111 Mallview Ct	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,216 (+9%)	17mo	$92,000	$76	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.43% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 63.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.97×
• Total profit: $48,313
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 68.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.17×
• Total profit: $132,748
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71913

• Home prices YoY: -33.9%
• Rents YoY: 6.4%
• Active inventory: 986
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,475 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax from tax record: −$13 /mo · $157/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $432

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $857	-5% $840	+0% $824	+5% $807	+10% $791
Rent	-10% $707	-5% $765	+0% $824	+5% $882	+10% $940
Rate	-1.0pp $853	-0.5pp $838	base $824	+0.5pp $809	+1.0pp $793

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
210 Carl Dr Unit B6 Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1350	$1,350	$1.00	44d	1	0.70mi
122 Chambers Pt Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1242	$2,100	$1.69	44d	1	0.85mi
180 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	44d	1	0.90mi
200 Lakeland Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	888	$1,155	$1.30	44d	10	1.00mi
389 Lake Hamilton Dr Hot Springs National Park, AR	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1137	$1,750	$1.54	44d	16	1.26mi
600 Higdon Ferry Rd #300 Hot Springs, AR	2.0	2.0	1388	$1,250	$0.90	44d	1	1.35mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,000 Active 142 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 141 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 140 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 139 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 138 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,000 Active 136 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $58,000 Active 135 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $58,000 Active 133 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 132 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $58,000 Active 131 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,000 Active 130 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $58,000 Active 127 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,000 Active 125 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,000 Active 124 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 123 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $58,000 Active 122 DOM
17. 2026-01-29
    listed $58,000 Active 1089-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1089 chars)

    Extensively renovated over the past three years, this inviting home combines updated finishes with warm farmhouse character. Features include oak hardwood flooring, handcrafted live-edge maple countertops, and vintage-style Unique Appliances in the kitchen, along with fresh interior paint, modern lighting, upgraded doors, and custom window coverings throughout. The primary suite offers new vinyl plank flooring and a never-used walk-in bath/shower with accessibility features and a custom live-edge maple vanity. Both full bathrooms have been completely renovated, the half bath has been updated, and accessibility was thoughtfully considered throughout. An electric stove-style fireplace adds cozy charm, while the newer HVAC system provides efficient year-round comfort. Additional amenities include a screened-in porch, workshop area, storage shed, ramped deck access, and generous driveway parking. Located in Timbercrest, a peaceful 55+ community close to shopping, dining, Oaklawn Racetrack, and more, this home delivers comfort, style, and convenience in one exceptional package!

18. 2025-11-05
    price $60,000
19. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $67,500
20. 2022-12-05
    soldstatus $67,500 Sold
21. 2022-11-09
    historical Take Backups
22. 2022-07-28
    listed $75,000
23. 2022-07-28
    listed $75,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $157 · $13/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $371 · $31/mo
• Expected delta: +$214/yr (+$18/mo · 136.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,697
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$157
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,416
• − Management: −$1,416
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $9,483
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,276
• After-tax cash flow: $7,608/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hot Springs School District
• NCES district ID: 0507890
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $28,817
• Composite: 19.62/100
• National rank: #8746
• State rank: #195 of 238 in AR

Livability — Hot Springs

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #140
• US rank: #12498

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hot Springs, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• City population: 76,414
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 47,477
• Household income: $56,010
• Rent vs Own: 34.3% rent · 65.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1442.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -137.67%
• Current HPI: 268.5228
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.43%
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-22.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Listed $58,000 HSBOR
• 2025-11-05 Price Changed $60,000 HSBOR
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $67,500 CARMLS
• 2022-12-05 Sold (MLS) $67,500 HSBOR
• 2022-11-09 Contingent — CARMLS
• 2022-07-28 Listed $75,000 CARMLS
• 2022-07-28 Listed $75,000 HSBOR

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $157 · -1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.