31115 440th St · Rolfe, IA 50581

$155,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,613 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 129 Days on market

Built 1940 2.10 ac lot ↓ 21% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.0/10.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your country escape on approximately 2.1 acres, where space, privacy, and possibility come together. The main floor offers easy living with a functional kitchen featuring an adjoining laundry room/pantry, a dining area that flows into a spacious living room, plus a full bath and bedroom. Upstairs, you’ll find two cozy bedrooms, a 3/4 bath, and a versatile flex room ideal for a home office, craft space, playroom, or even your dream walk-in closet. Outside is where the acreage dream truly shines. Enjoy peaceful mornings on the east deck, unwind on the private west patio, and take in wide-open views in every direction. The home features vinyl siding and a newer roof (2019), and the acreage includes older cattle shed, two 24 x 50 sheds with garage doors and electricity (one with a cement floor), and a classic brick corn crib. Quiet, private, and full of possibilities—this is country living at its best!

Key facts

• Functional kitchen
• Versatile flex room
• Wide-open views

Tags

• FUNCTIONAL KITCHEN
• ADJOINING LAUNDRY ROOM
• SPACIOUS LIVING ROOM
• VERSATILE FLEX ROOM
• PRIVATE WEST PATIO
• WIDE-OPEN VIEWS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $155k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-124 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $133k (14.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $103k (33.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $103k (33.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#705 in IA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, schools F.
• Pocahontas Area Community School District (rural): math 67% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #166 of 289 in IA (top 57%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 1 units permitted in Pocahontas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 129 days — a 12% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $102,799 (33.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 129 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.43%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.9% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.42×
• Total profit: $18,221
• Equity at exit: $77,698

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.54×
• Total profit: $66,927
• Equity at exit: $126,377

Cash invested: $43,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Iowa: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; mostly landlord-friendly statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 50581

• Home prices YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,028 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$813
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $706/yr
• Insurance: −$65
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $-124

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,185

Max offer price $133,069

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $38,750
• Closing costs: $4,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $155,000 Active 129 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $155,000 Active 128 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $155,000 Active 127 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $155,000 Active 126 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $155,000 Active 124 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $155,000 Active 123 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $155,000 Active 120 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $155,000 Active 119 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $155,000 Active 118 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $155,000 Active 117 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $155,000 Active 114 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $155,000 Active 113 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $155,000 Active 112 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 111 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $155,000 Active 110 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    price $155,000 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Welcome to your country escape on approximately 2.1 acres, where space, privacy, and possibility come together. The main floor offers easy living with a functional kitchen featuring an adjoining laundry room/pantry, a dining area that flows into a spacious living room, plus a full bath and bedroom. Upstairs, you’ll find two cozy bedrooms, a 3/4 bath, and a versatile flex room ideal for a home office, craft space, playroom, or even your dream walk-in closet. Outside is where the acreage dream truly shines. Enjoy peaceful mornings on the east deck, unwind on the private west patio, and take in wide-open views in every direction. The home features vinyl siding and a newer roof (2019), and the acreage includes older cattle shed, two 24 x 50 sheds with garage doors and electricity (one with a cement floor), and a classic brick corn crib. Quiet, private, and full of possibilities—this is country living at its best!

17. 2026-04-15
    price $160,000 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Welcome to your country escape on approximately 2.1 acres, where space, privacy, and possibility come together. The main floor offers easy living with a functional kitchen featuring an adjoining laundry room/pantry, a dining area that flows into a spacious living room, plus a full bath and bedroom. Upstairs, you’ll find two cozy bedrooms, a 3/4 bath, and a versatile flex room ideal for a home office, craft space, playroom, or even your dream walk-in closet. Outside is where the acreage dream truly shines. Enjoy peaceful mornings on the east deck, unwind on the private west patio, and take in wide-open views in every direction. The home features vinyl siding and a newer roof (2019), and the acreage includes older cattle shed, two 24 x 50 sheds with garage doors and electricity (one with a cement floor), and a classic brick corn crib. Quiet, private, and full of possibilities—this is country living at its best!

18. 2026-02-09
    listed $165,000 Active 934-char remark

    Show marketing remark (934 chars)

    Welcome to your country escape on approximately 2.1 acres, where space, privacy, and possibility come together. The main floor offers easy living with a functional kitchen featuring an adjoining laundry room/pantry, a dining area that flows into a spacious living room, plus a full bath and bedroom. Upstairs, you’ll find two cozy bedrooms, a 3/4 bath, and a versatile flex room ideal for a home office, craft space, playroom, or even your dream walk-in closet. Outside is where the acreage dream truly shines. Enjoy peaceful mornings on the east deck, unwind on the private west patio, and take in wide-open views in every direction. The home features vinyl siding and a newer roof (2019), and the acreage includes older cattle shed, two 24 x 50 sheds with garage doors and electricity (one with a cement floor), and a classic brick corn crib. Quiet, private, and full of possibilities—this is country living at its best!

19. 2025-09-04
    listed $195,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $706 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,570 · $131/mo
• Expected delta: +$864/yr (+$72/mo · 122.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,336
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,682
• − Property taxes: −$706
• − Insurance: −$775
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$987
• − Management: −$987
• − Depreciation: −$4,509
• Taxable loss: −$4,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,034
• After-tax cash flow: $-455/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pocahontas Area Community School District
• NCES district ID: 1923190
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $44,481
• Composite: 58.0/100
• National rank: #1036
• State rank: #166 of 289 in IA

Livability — Rolfe

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #705
• US rank: #16346

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 751

Population outlook (Pocahontas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 6,624 people
• By 2030: 6,482 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 6,359 · -4.0%
• By 2050: 6,439 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 7,397 · +11.7%
• By 2100: 8,428 · +27.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Slovak 5% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pocahontas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+54.0) · D 22.3% · R 76.3% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -45.6pp toward R · 2008: -8.4pp · 2024: -54.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+54.0 2020: R+49.5 2016: R+45.2 2012: R+21.8 2008: R+8.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.90%
• Current HPI: 97.23
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.48%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$16B
▸Retail / Convenience	1	$15B

Price history

-20.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $155,000 IAR
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $160,000 IAR
• 2026-02-09 Listed $165,000 IAR
• 2025-09-04 Listed $195,000 NWIA

Property tax history

+5.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $706 · +19.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.