3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #283 · Phoenix, AZ 85050

$225,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Manufactured · 68 Days on market

Built 2013 Good condition $161/sqft · 48% above area Est $152k · 48% over ↓ 4% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.5/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

For the Discerning Buyer! 2 Bed + DEN and extra front drive parking. So many updates to appreciate! You don't see Acacia wood flooring and custome penny tile bath flooring in many of these! Custom barn door built for master bath, custome window valances and electric fireplace. Closet systems in place and a composite front deck. This 55+ Coommunity is a gem with a 24/7 manned guard gate, a nine hole executive golf course, heated pool & lots of social activities. Close to May Clini & Desert Ridge! This one is ready to move into now! The monthly land lease of $955 includes water, trash, sewer, and think of the ammenities. There is a 2 dog limit of 30lbs each. This newer model has a watering system on timer. Low maintenence. Great lock and leave. Furniture available for sale. 55+

Key facts

• 3 parking spots
• Community pool
• Built 2013

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $838 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $225k).
• Recommended offer: $212k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.8% vs local median 3.3% in Phoenix — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#16 in AZ, #3,924 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, crime F.
• Paradise Valley Unified District (4241) (urban): math 39% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #56 of 249 in AZ (top 22%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 220 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 19d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.35% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 15.96%
• DSCR: 1.71
• GRM: 6.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $152,120
• List price: $225,000
• Delta: 47.91%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #109	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,400 (0%)	1mo	$130,000	$93	96
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #240	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+4%)	3mo	$152,500	$105	86
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #4	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+4%)	4mo	$179,000	$123	82
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #323	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	4mo	$159,000	$123	81
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #67	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,316 (-6%)	8mo	$172,000	$131	80
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #275	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	1mo	$160,000	$103	80
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #65	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,534 (+10%)	7mo	$207,000	$135	78
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #250	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-11%)	3mo	$152,000	$122	76
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #339	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,550 (+11%)	4mo	$170,000	$110	76
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #108	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-11%)	2mo	$132,000	$106	76
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #294	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,560 (+11%)	4mo	$142,000	$91	74
3901 E Pinnacle Peak Rd #134	0.07mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+11%)	1mo	$145,000	$93	72

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.98% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.22×
• Total profit: $13,878
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.09×
• Total profit: $68,620
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85050

• Home prices YoY: -21.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 6.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,029 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$281 /mo · $3,375/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$636
• Net cashflow: $838

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,968

Max offer price $225,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $993	-5% $916	+0% $838	+5% $760	+10% $682
Rent	-10% $599	-5% $718	+0% $838	+5% $958	+10% $1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $951	-0.5pp $895	base $838	+0.5pp $780	+1.0pp $720

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5–3.0	1490	$4,750	$3.19	45d	2	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1405	$2,600	$1.85	19d	3	0.70mi
3935 E Rough Rider Rd #1338 Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.5	1276	$2,700	$2.12	0d	1	0.79mi
4066 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1269	$3,500	$2.76	45d	1	1.02mi
4517 E Melinda Ln Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$3,100	$1.86	15d	1	1.35mi
4509 E Lone Cactus Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$4,500	$2.71	45d	1	1.36mi
21624 N 46th Pl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1540	$3,200	$2.08	6d	1	1.41mi
4632 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$3,800	$2.50	45d	1	1.41mi
3626 E Potter Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1519	$2,500	$1.65	25d	1	1.44mi
20729 N 37th Way Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1670	$3,000	$1.80	16d	1	1.46mi
4726 E Mossman Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,500	$1.55	9d	1	1.46mi
4723 E Weaver Rd Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1663	$2,595	$1.56	15d	1	1.48mi
20660 N 40th St Phoenix, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1325	$1,749	$1.32	19d	4	1.49mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $225,000 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $225,000 Active 65 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $225,000 Active 64 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $225,000 Active 63 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $225,000 Active 62 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $225,000 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $225,000 Active 56 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $225,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $225,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $225,000 Active 51 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $225,000 Active 50 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $225,000 Active 49 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $225,000 Active 48 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $225,000 Active 47 DOM
16. 2026-04-14
    historical
17. 2026-04-14
    price $225,000
18. 2026-03-18
    listed $235,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    For the Discerning Buyer! 2 Bed + DEN and extra front drive parking. So many updates to appreciate! You don't see Acacia wood flooring and custome penny tile bath flooring in many of these! Custom barn door built for master bath, custome window valances and electric fireplace. Closet systems in place and a composite front deck. This 55+ Coommunity is a gem with a 24/7 manned guard gate, a nine hole executive golf course, heated pool & lots of social activities. Close to May Clini & Desert Ridge! This one is ready to move into now! The monthly land lease of $955 includes water, trash, sewer, and think of the ammenities. There is a 2 dog limit of 30lbs each. This newer model has a watering system on timer. Low maintenence. Great lock and leave. Furniture available for sale. 55+

19. 2026-03-18
    listed $225,000 Active 808-char remark

    Show marketing remark (808 chars)

    For the Discerning Buyer! 2 Bed + DEN and extra front drive parking. So many updates to appreciate! You don't see Acacia wood flooring and custome penny tile bath flooring in many of these! Custom barn door built for master bath, custome window valances and electric fireplace. Closet systems in place and a composite front deck. This 55+ Coommunity is a gem with a 24/7 manned guard gate, a nine hole executive golf course, heated pool & lots of social activities. Close to May Clini & Desert Ridge! This one is ready to move into now! The monthly land lease of $955 includes water, trash, sewer, and think of the ammenities. There is a 2 dog limit of 30lbs each. This newer model has a watering system on timer. Low maintenence. Great lock and leave. Furniture available for sale. 55+

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,347
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$3,375
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,908
• − Management: −$2,908
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable income: $6,883
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,652
• After-tax cash flow: $8,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This home is in good condition with modern updates and a well-maintained exterior. It is ready to move into and would benefit from a fresh coat of paint and new light fixtures to enhance its curb appeal and energy efficiency.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal ↑
• Resale Replace gutters — Improves home's appearance and functionality ↑
• Both Replace light fixtures — Modernizes the home and improves energy efficiency ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paradise Valley Unified District (4241)
• NCES district ID: 0405930
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,106
• Composite: 37.89/100
• National rank: #4316
• State rank: #56 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #16
• US rank: #3924

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime F Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 1,500,198
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 33,118
• Household income: $139,836
• Rent vs Own: 20.9% rent · 79.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 11% Asian 9% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.38%
• Current HPI: 308.7483
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-4.3% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $225,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-18 Listed $235,000 ARMLS