14931 Amberjack Ter · Lakewood Ranch, FL 34202

$218,999

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,343 sqft · Condo public records · 91 Days on market

Built 2006 $458/mo HOA · 18% of rent ↓ 14% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold

Key facts

• Lake views
• Screened lanai
• Natural light

Tags

• LAKE VIEWS
• MAINTENANCE FREE LIVING
• SCREENED LANAI
• NATURAL LIGHT
• COMMUNITY HEATED POOL
• EXTRA PRIVACY

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished
• Financial info: Total annual association/fees approx. $5,498; Total monthly association/fees approx. $458.17
• HOA & community: Monthly condo fee (approx. $454); Annual association fee (approx. $50); Association covers pool, reserves, structure maintenance, grounds maintenance, management, and pest control; Community features: pool, street lights, irrigation with reclaimed water, deed restrictions, buyer approval required, community mailbox; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Parking details not provided
• Security: Community mailbox
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable available; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Townhouse; Two levels; Property faces south; Completed condition; CDD (community development district) present; Homestead exemption
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Building completed; built as part of a multi-unit building (Building number 29)
• Exterior features: Rear screened porch; Sidewalk; Pond view; Mature landscaping; Asphalt road

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Microwave; Range / Stove; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $91 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $219k).
• Recommended offer: $199k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 3.3% in Lakewood Ranch — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gilbert W Mcneal Elementary School (math 80% / reading 79%, grade A, #116 of 2,144 statewide, top 6%, 678 students, 20% FRL); R. Dan Nolan Middle School (math 79% / reading 72%, grade A, #38 of 571 statewide, top 7%, 760 students, 28% FRL); Lakewood Ranch High School (math 47% / reading 63%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 2,435 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 23% FRL vs 51% district-wide (27 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 70% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Manatee average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 507 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.2%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($199k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $130k; list at $219k implies a 68% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $199,289 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.79%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.79%
• DSCR: 1.08
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.2% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-19,825
• Equity at exit: $50,782

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-21,708
• Equity at exit: $51,571

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34202

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 507
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,559 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$233 /mo · $2,792/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$458
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$537
• Net cashflow: $91

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,443

Max offer price $218,999

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $215	-5% $153	+0% $91	+5% $30	+10% $-32
Rent	-10% $-111	-5% $-10	+0% $91	+5% $193	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $202	-0.5pp $147	base $91	+0.5pp $35	+1.0pp $-23

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14909 Skip Jack Loop #102 Lakewood Ranch, FL	2.0	2.5	1160	$2,200	$1.90	23d	1	0.07mi
6209 Flagfish Ct #102 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.5	1276	$1,895	$1.49	25d	1	0.09mi
14956 Amberjack Ter #103 Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.5	1540	$1,975	$1.28	25d	1	0.10mi
6209 Flagfish Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	3.0	1276	$1,845	$1.45	17d	1	0.11mi
15121 Searobbin Dr Lakewood Ranch, FL	4.0	2.5	1868	$2,850	$1.53	25d	1	0.12mi
6258 Blue Runner Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,000	$1.57	17d	1	0.14mi
6246 Blue Runner Ct Lakewood Ranch, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$2,300	$1.48	17d	1	0.16mi
14505 Westbrook Cir Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1016	$1,906	$1.88	5d	10	0.44mi
13700 Luxe Ave Bradenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1068	$2,205	$2.06	3d	25	0.86mi
5510 Tidal Breeze Cv Unit 5510 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1414	$3,495	$2.47	25d	1	0.96mi
5537 Tidal Breeze Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	25d	1	0.97mi
14736 Lyla Ter Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.5	1700	$3,000	$1.76	17d	1	1.06mi
15721 Sunny Day Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1580	$6,500	$4.11	25d	1	1.14mi
15161 Serene Shores Loop Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1840	$3,800	$2.07	25d	1	1.16mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	25d	1	1.19mi
5316 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1564	$2,700	$1.73	23d	1	1.19mi
13737 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	1.21mi
13732 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,775	$1.82	17d	1	1.22mi
5307 Crystal Harbor Cv Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1557	$3,000	$1.93	25d	1	1.24mi
16706 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1203	$6,000	$4.99	16d	5	1.24mi
13823 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,950	$1.93	25d	2	1.25mi
13725 Messina Loop #201 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,900	$1.90	25d	1	1.27mi
13710 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	25d	1	1.28mi
16020 Sunny Day Dr Unit 1 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$3,500	$2.48	25d	1	1.29mi
13711 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,495	$1.63	25d	1	1.29mi
13711 Messina Loop #203 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,200	$2.09	17d	1	1.29mi
16804 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1131	$3,425	$3.03	4d	2	1.29mi
13703 Messina Loop #102 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$2,750	$1.80	25d	1	1.32mi
5930 Cessna Run Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$12,500	$6.76	25d	1	1.32mi
5225 Blue Crush St Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1849	$5,000	$2.70	25d	1	1.32mi
13720 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,750	$3.11	25d	2	1.32mi
5319 White Sand Cv Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1417	$2,850	$2.01	25d	1	1.33mi
16814 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1124	$3,650	$3.25	25d	2	1.34mi
13604 Messina Loop #103 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$6,000	$3.93	5d	1	1.35mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$4,400	$2.88	21d	1	1.37mi
13605 Messina Loop #104 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1632	$2,200	$1.35	21d	1	1.37mi
13605 Messina Loop Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1528	$3,450	$2.26	25d	2	1.37mi
16904 Vardon Ter Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1195	$6,500	$5.44	5d	5	1.39mi
15934 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$2,900	$2.05	25d	1	1.40mi
15950 Clear Skies Pl Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1414	$4,500	$3.18	25d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $458 · $5,496/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-08
   statusdays on market $218,999 Pending 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $218,999 Active 89 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $218,999 Active 88 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $218,999 Active 87 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $218,999 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-04-27
   price $218,999
7. 2026-03-06
   listed $225,000 Active
8. 2016-08-30
   soldstatus $130,000
9. 2016-08-29
   status Pending 4-char remark

   Show marketing remark (4 chars)

   Sold

10. 2016-08-29
    listed $130,000 Active 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    Sold

11. 2016-08-29
    soldstatus $130,000 Sold 4-char remark

    Show marketing remark (4 chars)

    Sold

12. 2015-04-09
    soldstatus $29,956
13. 2006-04-11
    listed $254,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,792 · $233/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,792 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,711
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$2,792
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,457
• − Management: −$2,457
• − HOA: −$5,496
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,223
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$534
• After-tax cash flow: $1,632/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lakewood Ranch

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakewood Ranch, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 52,177
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,197
• Household income: $121,659
• Rent vs Own: 20.8% rent · 79.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 574.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Arabic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Current HPI: 240.7087
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.54%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-14.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $218,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-06 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records
• 2016-08-29 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-29 Listed $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-29 Sold (MLS) $130,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-09 Sold (Public Records) $29,956 Public Records
• 2006-04-11 Listed $254,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,792 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.