209 E 2nd St · Chelsea, OK 74016

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 704 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1940 0.31 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.3/10.0

Listing remarks

This property in Chelsea offers a great opportunity for someone looking for a renovation project or investment property. The home will need updates and repairs but has potential for the right buyer. The property offers outdoor space and a chance to bring new life to the home. Property is being sold as is.

Key facts

• Updates and repairs
• Investment property
• Outdoor space

Tags

• OUTDOOR SPACE
• RENOVATION PROJECT
• INVESTMENT PROPERTY
• UPDATES AND REPAIRS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Security: Storm shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single-story; Faces west; Slab foundation
• Construction: Masonite and wood frame construction; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Built year source: public records
• Exterior features: Corner lot; No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Vinyl windows; No additional interior features listed
• Laundry & utility: No hot water (appliance note)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $523 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($816 rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $18k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.7% vs local median 3.8% in Chelsea — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#314 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Chelsea (rural): math 9% / reading 20% proficiency, ranked #224 of 270 in OK (top 83%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 608 units permitted in Rogers County in 2024 (7 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($138 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Rogers County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($18k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $20k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $18,200 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.02%
• DSCR: 5.98
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $106,304
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
311 E 5th St	0.26mi	2/1.0	700 (-1%)	12mo	$118,000	$169	77
105 S Elm St	0.22mi	2/1.0	648 (-8%)	9mo	$25,000	$39	69
101 E 1st St	0.16mi	1/1.0 (-1)	720 (+2%)	24mo	$109,000	$151	64
103 E 10th St S	0.65mi	2/1.0	798 (+13%)	5mo	$103,000	$129	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 8.89×
• Total profit: $44,189
• Equity at exit: $18,018

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.56×
• Total profit: $103,953
• Equity at exit: $38,856

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74016

• Home prices YoY: 34.4%
• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $816 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$9 /mo · $107/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$171
• Net cashflow: $523

Break-even live

Break-even rent $155

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $534	-5% $528	+0% $523	+5% $517	+10% $511
Rent	-10% $458	-5% $491	+0% $523	+5% $555	+10% $587
Rate	-1.0pp $533	-0.5pp $528	base $523	+0.5pp $518	+1.0pp $512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $20,000 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $20,000 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-03-06
    listed $20,000 Active
16. 1999-01-01
    soldstatus $10,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OK · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $107 · $9/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $180 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$73/yr (+$6/mo · 68.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,796
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$107
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$784
• − Management: −$784
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $6,319
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,517
• After-tax cash flow: $4,756/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chelsea
• NCES district ID: 4007380
• Math proficiency: 9% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 20% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $45,149
• Composite: 12.85/100
• National rank: #9595
• State rank: #224 of 270 in OK

Livability — Chelsea

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #314
• US rank: #18185

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chelsea, OK
• Population (ZIP): 5,787

Population outlook (Rogers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,211 people
• By 2030: 104,381 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 111,567 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 116,791 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 129,134 · +28.9%
• By 2100: 132,326 · +32.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Native American 21% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rogers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 21.6% · R 76.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+54.9 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+50.1 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 90.30%
• Current HPI: 353.0
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

+90.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-06 Listed $20,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 1999-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $10,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $107 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.