655 Samsonville Rd · Kerhonkson, NY 12446

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 34 Days on market

Built 2017 2.83 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This manufactured home was built in 2017 and only used 3-6 times due to distance of the owners primary residence from the property. It's essentially brand new! Sited on 3+ acres, yoo'll quietly watch fireflies and listen to the summer night sounds without light pollution, from your front porch rocking chairs! One level living with two full baths and neutral tones throughout, all you need do is move in! Centrallly locared with easy proximity to Ulster county farms stores, vineyards and boutique hotels, you can live year-round or weekend here with ease and low maintenance.

Key facts

• 2.83 acre lot
• Built 2017
• Listed 33 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway (no carport)
• Utilities: Septic tank; Electricity available and connected; Propane; Private trash collection; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured house; Manufactured home
• Construction: Double wide structure
• Exterior features: Double wide manufactured home; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator; Open kitchen layout
• Bedrooms: 7 total rooms (includes bedroom count and other living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bath; Ceiling fans; Open floor plan; Open kitchen

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-360 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (21.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $199k (31.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $199k (31.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 2.4% in Kerhonkson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#552 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Rondout Valley Central School District (rural): math 39% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #447 of 590 in NY (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Kerhonkson Elementary School (math 15% / reading 54%, grade F, #1,574 of 2,108 statewide, top 75%, 209 students, 54% FRL); Rondout Valley Junior High School (math 27% / reading 42%, grade F, #483 of 729 statewide, top 68%, 243 students, 42% FRL); Rondout Valley High School (math 87% / reading 64%, grade A-, #623 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 569 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 464 units permitted in Ulster County in 2024 (170 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Ulster County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $140k; list at $290k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $198,631 (31.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.32%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $134,934
• Equity at exit: $261,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.12×
• Total profit: $415,365
• Equity at exit: $563,212

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12446

• Home prices YoY: 8.7%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,986 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$288 /mo · $3,459/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$417
• Net cashflow: $-360

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,442

Max offer price $226,279

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-196	-5% $-278	+0% $-360	+5% $-442	+10% $-524
Rent	-10% $-517	-5% $-439	+0% $-360	+5% $-282	+10% $-203
Rate	-1.0pp $-214	-0.5pp $-286	base $-360	+0.5pp $-435	+1.0pp $-512

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $289,900 Active 34 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $289,900 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,900 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,900 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,900 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,900 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $289,900 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $289,900 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,900 Active 22 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $289,900 Active 21 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $289,900 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,900 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,900 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,900 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,900 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $289,900 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-19
    listed $289,900 Active
18. 2026-05-19
    historical $289,900
19. 2026-05-18
    listed $289,900 Active 577-char remark

    Show marketing remark (577 chars)

    This manufactured home was built in 2017 and only used 3-6 times due to distance of the owners primary residence from the property. It's essentially brand new! Sited on 3+ acres, yoo'll quietly watch fireflies and listen to the summer night sounds without light pollution, from your front porch rocking chairs! One level living with two full baths and neutral tones throughout, all you need do is move in! Centrallly locared with easy proximity to Ulster county farms stores, vineyards and boutique hotels, you can live year-round or weekend here with ease and low maintenance.

20. 2007-05-08
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,459 · $288/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,179 · $348/mo
• Expected delta: +$720/yr (+$60/mo · 20.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 4 d/yr ≥97°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,836
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$3,459
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,907
• − Management: −$1,907
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$9,559
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,294
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,028/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rondout Valley Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3624960
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $59,408
• Composite: 39.5/100
• National rank: #3949
• State rank: #447 of 590 in NY

Livability — Kerhonkson

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #552
• US rank: #9921

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 5,232
• Population (ZIP): 5,232

Population outlook (Ulster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,887 people
• By 2030: 171,876 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 161,771 · -8.0%
• By 2050: 151,470 · -13.9%
• By 2075: 133,023 · -24.4%
• By 2100: 113,504 · -35.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 11% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 6% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ulster

• 2024 margin: D (+18.7) · D 59.3% · R 40.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.9pp toward R · 2008: 23.6pp · 2024: 18.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.7 2020: D+20.9 2016: D+9.1 2012: D+21.9 2008: D+23.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 30.32%
• Current HPI: 380.6732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+107.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $289,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Coming Soon $289,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-18 Listed $289,900 HVCRMLS
• 2007-05-08 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,459 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.