9306 E Gospel Island Rd · Inverness, FL 34450

$305,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,662 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 2006 8,800 sqft lot Est $311k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.9/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +8.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy this light and bright spacious open floor plan 3 bedrooms & 2 Full bath home. All rooms have beautiful porcelain tile floors, vaulted ceilings. The grand master suite with a walk-in closet, his-n-her sinks, jetted tub to relax and walk-in shower. Beautiful Arch design archways between the living room and dining room into the kitchen with 42 inch tall cabinets. Large 2 car garage with pull down stairs for extra storage in the attic. The home was built in 2006, has architectural shingles, septic with oversize drain field. AC is 3 years new. Sprinkler system & vinyl privacy fence great for your family and pets. Shed is included. Close to :Boat ramps, lakes, dining, shopping, Liberty Park and Inverness Square. .

Key facts

• Large windows
• Open floor plan
• Hurricane windows

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE WINDOWS
• SPRINKLER SYSTEM
• FENCED IN
• NEWER ROOF
• HURRICANE WINDOWS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car attached garage; Concrete driveway; Garage with opener
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; One level
• Construction: Stucco construction; Asphalt shingle roof; Block foundation; Built as residential single-family
• Exterior features: Sliding doors; No pool; Rectangular lot; Public maintained road frontage on a city street; Irrigation with metered water

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric cooktop; Electric oven; Microwave; Refrigerator; Garbage disposal; Water heater
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Open floor plan; Pantry; Vaulted ceilings; Walk-in closets; Blinds and drapes/window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer; Laundry located in garage

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $305k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $656 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
• Recommended offer: $278k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.9% vs local median 4.9% in Inverness — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#564 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Inverness Primary School (math 54% / reading 55%, grade C, #892 of 2,144 statewide, top 44%, 683 students, 65% FRL); Inverness Middle School (math 52% / reading 48%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 1,017 students, 60% FRL); Citrus High School (math 34% / reading 51%, grade F, #264 of 667 statewide, top 41%, 1,503 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 210 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($278k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $212k; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,550 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.22%
• DSCR: 1.41
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $310,794
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9041 E Gospel Island Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,617 (-3%)	9mo	$355,000	$220	77
9640 E White Egret Path	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,711 (+3%)	4mo	$319,900	$187	76
9013 E Gospel Island Rd	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,747 (+5%)	2mo	$425,000	$243	74
9450 E Mistwood Ct	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-1%)	22mo	$475,000	$288	65
20 S Heron Creek Loop	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,787 (+8%)	9mo	$255,000	$143	62
8926 E Gospel Island Rd	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,680 (+1%)	23mo	$180,000	$107	62
9539 E Southgate Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,546 (-7%)	16mo	$363,500	$235	58
9010 E Point O Woods Dr	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,721 (+4%)	23mo	$365,000	$212	58
275 N Golf Harbor Path	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,815 (+9%)	10mo	$215,000	$118	48
8720 E Aberdeen Pl	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-7%)	15mo	$140,000	$91	47
24 N Braemar Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,428 (-14%)	12mo	$187,400	$131	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-7,725
• Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $46,697
• Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34450

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Active inventory: 210
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
• Tax from tax record: −$145 /mo · $1,743/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$672
• Net cashflow: $656

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,369

Max offer price $305,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $829	-5% $743	+0% $656	+5% $570	+10% $484
Rent	-10% $403	-5% $530	+0% $656	+5% $783	+10% $909
Rate	-1.0pp $810	-0.5pp $734	base $656	+0.5pp $577	+1.0pp $497

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,250
• Closing costs: $9,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8515 E Gospel Island Rd Inverness, FL	3.0	2.0	1585	$3,200	$2.02	22d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $305,000 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $305,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $305,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $305,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $305,000 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $305,000 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $305,000 Active 96 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $305,000 Active 95 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $305,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $305,000 Active 91 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $305,000 Active 86 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $305,000 Active 85 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $305,000 Active 84 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $305,000 Active 83 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $305,000 Active 82 DOM
16. 2026-03-09
    listed $305,000 Active
17. 2021-05-21
    soldstatus $212,000
18. 2021-04-30
    soldstatus $212,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Enjoy this light and bright spacious open floor plan 3 bedrooms & 2 Full bath home. All rooms have beautiful porcelain tile floors, vaulted ceilings. The grand master suite with a walk-in closet, his-n-her sinks, jetted tub to relax and walk-in shower. Beautiful Arch design archways between the living room and dining room into the kitchen with 42 inch tall cabinets. Large 2 car garage with pull down stairs for extra storage in the attic. The home was built in 2006, has architectural shingles, septic with oversize drain field. AC is 3 years new. Sprinkler system & vinyl privacy fence great for your family and pets. Shed is included. Close to :Boat ramps, lakes, dining, shopping, Liberty Park and Inverness Square. .

19. 2021-04-01
    listed $212,000 740-char remark

    Show marketing remark (740 chars)

    Enjoy this light and bright spacious open floor plan 3 bedrooms & 2 Full bath home. All rooms have beautiful porcelain tile floors, vaulted ceilings. The grand master suite with a walk-in closet, his-n-her sinks, jetted tub to relax and walk-in shower. Beautiful Arch design archways between the living room and dining room into the kitchen with 42 inch tall cabinets. Large 2 car garage with pull down stairs for extra storage in the attic. The home was built in 2006, has architectural shingles, septic with oversize drain field. AC is 3 years new. Sprinkler system & vinyl privacy fence great for your family and pets. Shed is included. Close to :Boat ramps, lakes, dining, shopping, Liberty Park and Inverness Square. .

20. 2017-08-17
    soldstatus $129,000 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Enjoy this light and bright spacious home with a family room, living room, dining room and three bedrooms. All rooms have tile floors, vaulted ceilings. The grand master suite with a walk-in closet, his-n-her sinks, jetted tub to relax and walk-in shower. Beautiful Arch design archways between the living room and dining room into the kitchen. Large 2 car garage with pull down stairs for extra storage in the attic. The home was built in 2006, has architectural shingles, new septic 4 years old with oversize drain field. A wood privacy fence for your children and pets. HOME WARR at Full Price. Close to:Boat ramps, lakes, dining, shopping, Liberty Park, Inverness.

21. 2017-08-17
    soldstatus $129,000

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Enjoy this light and bright spacious home with a family room, living room, dining room and three bedrooms. All rooms have tile floors, vaulted ceilings. The grand master suite with a walk-in closet, his-n-her sinks, jetted tub to relax and walk-in shower. Beautiful Arch design archways between the living room and dining room into the kitchen. Large 2 car garage with pull down stairs for extra storage in the attic. The home was built in 2006, has architectural shingles, new septic 4 years old with oversize drain field. A wood privacy fence for your children and pets. HOME WARR at Full Price. Close to:Boat ramps, lakes, dining, shopping, Liberty Park, Inverness.

22. 2017-03-20
    listed $129,000 668-char remark

    Show marketing remark (668 chars)

    Enjoy this light and bright spacious home with a family room, living room, dining room and three bedrooms. All rooms have tile floors, vaulted ceilings. The grand master suite with a walk-in closet, his-n-her sinks, jetted tub to relax and walk-in shower. Beautiful Arch design archways between the living room and dining room into the kitchen. Large 2 car garage with pull down stairs for extra storage in the attic. The home was built in 2006, has architectural shingles, new septic 4 years old with oversize drain field. A wood privacy fence for your children and pets. HOME WARR at Full Price. Close to:Boat ramps, lakes, dining, shopping, Liberty Park, Inverness.

23. 2005-11-01
    soldstatus $156,000
24. 2004-05-28
    soldstatus $12,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,743 · $145/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,532 · $211/mo
• Expected delta: +$788/yr (+$66/mo · 45.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $38,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,085
• − Property taxes: −$1,743
• − Insurance: −$1,525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,072
• − Management: −$3,072
• − Depreciation: −$8,873
• Taxable income: $3,030
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$727
• After-tax cash flow: $7,147/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Inverness

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #564
• US rank: #10791

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,621
• Population (ZIP): 10,408

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.56%
• Current HPI: 315.9725
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+2340.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $305,000 RACC
• 2021-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $212,000 Public Records
• 2021-04-30 Sold (MLS) $212,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-01 Listed $212,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-08-17 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2017-08-17 Sold (MLS) $129,000 RACC
• 2017-03-20 Listed $129,000 RACC
• 2005-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $156,000 Public Records
• 2004-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $12,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,743 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.