235 Bilger Creek Rd · Myrtle Creek, OR 97457

$189,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 2,316 sqft · Other public records · 313 Days on market

Built 1983 2.00 ac lot $82/sqft · 62% below area

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

Key facts

• 2 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1983

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $190k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $161 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (5.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $167k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 3.2% in Myrtle Creek — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#107 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• South Umpqua SD 19 (town): math 21% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #51 of 58 in OR (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Myrtle Creek Elementary School (math 24% / reading 24%, grade F, #320 of 412 statewide, top 82%, 275 students, 71% FRL); Coffenberry Middle School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #96 of 128 statewide, top 78%, 284 students, 72% FRL); South Umpqua High School (math 24% / reading 44%, grade F, #94 of 143 statewide, top 70%, 443 students, 72% FRL).
• Market conditions: 125 active listings in the ZIP; 190 units permitted in Douglas County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Douglas County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 313 days — a 12% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $150k; 27% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 313 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.31%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.63%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $502,293
• List price: $189,900
• Delta: -62.19%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-20,524
• Equity at exit: $28,315

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.91×
• Total profit: $-4,691
• Equity at exit: $16,419

Cash invested: $53,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97457

• Home prices YoY: -18.1%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,798 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax from tax record: −$184 /mo · $2,209/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$377
• Net cashflow: $161

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,594

Max offer price $189,900

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $268	-5% $215	+0% $161	+5% $107	+10% $53
Rent	-10% $19	-5% $90	+0% $161	+5% $232	+10% $303
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $209	base $161	+0.5pp $112	+1.0pp $62

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,475
• Closing costs: $5,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,900 Active 313 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,900 Active 311 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,900 Active 310 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,900 Active 309 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,900 Active 308 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,900 Active 307 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,900 Active 305 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,900 Active 304 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $189,900 Active 301 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,900 Active 300 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,900 Active 299 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,900 Active 296 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $189,900 Active 294 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,900 Active 293 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,900 Active 292 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $195,900 Active 291 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    price $195,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

18. 2026-02-17
    price $199,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

19. 2025-09-25
    status Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

20. 2025-08-19
    status Pending 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

21. 2025-07-25
    status Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

22. 2025-07-09
    status Pending 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

23. 2025-06-20
    listed $219,900 Active 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    This place had to be something to see for a big game hunter back in the day. Pictures do not do any good till you look for yourself. Can not describe it without seeing it. Roof has leaked in spots and needs a lot of work to bring back to its once glorious show place.Seller is an estate and will not do any repairs or inspection. Selling AS-IS

24. 2022-12-01
    soldstatus $150,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,209 · $184/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥94°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 13 unhealthy d/yr today · 14 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,637
• − Property taxes: −$2,209
• − Insurance: −$950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,726
• − Management: −$1,726
• − Depreciation: −$5,524
• Taxable loss: −$1,201
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$288
• After-tax cash flow: $2,220/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Umpqua SD 19
• NCES district ID: 4111610
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $38,796
• Composite: 23.01/100
• National rank: #7976
• State rank: #51 of 58 in OR

Livability — Myrtle Creek

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #107
• US rank: #5976

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,158

Population outlook (Douglas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 105,191 people
• By 2030: 102,664 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 96,668 · -8.1%
• By 2050: 91,279 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 79,395 · -24.5%
• By 2100: 66,107 · -37.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 6% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Douglas

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.7) · D 29.9% · R 67.6% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -20.1pp · 2024: -37.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.7 2020: R+37.5 2016: R+39.4 2012: R+27.6 2008: R+20.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -76.88%
• Current HPI: 348.9631
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+30.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $195,900 RMLS
• 2026-02-17 Price Changed $199,900 RMLS
• 2025-09-25 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-08-19 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-07-25 Relisted — RMLS
• 2025-07-09 Pending — RMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $219,900 RMLS
• 2022-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,209 · +5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.