2206 Abernathy St · Houston, TX 77026

$199,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,536 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 2022 2,404 sqft lot $130/sqft · 42% below area Est $344k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.9/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +2.9/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Newly built in 2022, this modern 3-bed, 2.5-bath home is ideally located just minutes from downtown Houston and our city's major thoroughfares. The area is experiencing a major revitalization driven by the massive East River development—a 150-acre mixed-use project bringing new retail, dining, parks, office space, and waterfront recreation to the community. This home offers an open-concept layout with contemporary finishes, abundant natural light, and low-maintenance living, making it perfect for homeowners or investors looking to get into one of Houston’s fastest-transforming neighborhoods. Enjoy quick access to major job centers, the Medical Center, sports and entertainment ve

Key facts

• High-growth zone
• Open-concept layout
• 2,404 sq ft lot

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ABUNDANT NATURAL LIGHT
• LOW-MAINTENANCE LIVING
• HIGH-GROWTH ZONE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2022; Slab foundation
• Construction: Composition roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Other lot features

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave included; Kitchen on first level
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom located on second level; Additional bedrooms located on second level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning; Gas cooling component
• Interior features: Microwave; No fireplaces; Total of 10 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on second level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-113 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (10.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (4.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (10.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.6% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Houston ISD (urban): math 27% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #593 of 826 in TX (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Fleming Middle (math 10% / reading 15%, grade F, #1,616 of 1,662 statewide, top 97%, 384 students, 97% FRL); Wheatley H S (math 17% / reading 19%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 643 students, 95% FRL) — zoned schools average 96% FRL vs 71% district-wide (25 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 15% at this address vs 31% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Houston ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 445 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 64% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.9% local appreciation)).
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($194k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 17y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $179,907 (10.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.43%
• DSCR: 0.89
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,498
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -41.97%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4404 Bond St	0.47mi	3/2.5	1,529 (-0%)	3mo	$295,000	$193	75
3107 Amboy St	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,503 (-2%)	5mo	$280,000	$186	66
2302 Wipprecht St	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,636 (+6%)	6mo	$299,000	$183	65
2207 Dan St	0.23mi	3/2.5	1,736 (+13%)	5mo	$339,000	$195	63
2004 Worms St	0.24mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-12%)	1mo	$259,000	$193	60
2303 Wipprecht St	0.38mi	3/2.5	1,764 (+15%)	2mo	$329,000	$187	56
1811 Pannell St Unit C	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,381 (-10%)	7mo	$275,000	$199	52
3202 Quitman St	0.54mi	3/3.5	1,700 (+11%)	3mo	$355,000	$209	51
4305 Engleford St	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,406 (-8%)	2mo	$159,900	$114	49
5001 Farmer St	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,360 (-12%)	2mo	$299,000	$220	40
2214 Brackenridge St	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,387 (-10%)	9mo	$205,000	$148	40
1907 Harlem St Unit A	0.75mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,700 (+11%)	9mo	$307,000	$181	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.89% appreciation · 3.08% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 7.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.48×
• Total profit: $26,814
• Equity at exit: $100,102

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $94,624
• Equity at exit: $162,735

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77026

• Home prices YoY: 1.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.1%
• Active inventory: 445
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,920 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$498 /mo · $5,977/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$403
• Net cashflow: $-113

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,063

Max offer price $179,907

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4509 Courtney St Houston, TX	4.0	1.0	1456	$1,150	$0.79	22d	1	0.35mi
4712 Rawley St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1501	$2,045	$1.36	21d	1	0.45mi
4712 Rawley St Unit a Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$2,070	$1.38	21d	1	0.45mi
4300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.50mi
3730 Lyons Ave Unit 216 Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1107	$1,300	$1.17	44d	1	0.56mi
5217 Noble St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$2,750	$1.45	44d	1	0.64mi
1513 Cage St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1467	$1,550	$1.06	44d	1	0.71mi
3300 Lyons Ave Unit 304 Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1393	$1,460	$1.05	44d	1	0.75mi
1222 Upton St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2055	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	0.75mi
3503 Wyrick St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1746	$2,850	$1.63	44d	1	0.82mi
5605 Mulvey St Unit 1019610P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1410	$4,237	$3.00	3d	1	0.83mi
2105 Sam Wilson St Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1416	$6,750	$4.77	44d	1	0.84mi
1307 Bayou St Unit B Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1814	$2,400	$1.32	8d	1	0.92mi
1303 Bayou St Unit C Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1869	$3,200	$1.71	44d	1	0.93mi
4109 Hare St Unit A Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1913	$6,950	$3.63	44d	1	0.93mi
4109 Hare St Unit 1019559P Houston, TX	4.0	2.5	1905	$6,852	$3.60	8d	1	0.93mi
3410 Baer St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2040	$3,500	$1.72	44d	1	1.13mi
3419 Gillespie St Houston, TX	3.0	3.5	2168	$2,300	$1.06	44d	1	1.15mi
1714 Mary St Houston, TX	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,400	$2.18	44d	1	1.18mi
611 Sydnor St Houston, TX	3.0	4.0	2157	$2,400	$1.11	44d	1	1.24mi
2905 Baer St Unit 1047953P Houston, TX	3.0	2.5	1991	$3,094	$1.55	5d	1	1.27mi
308 Grove St Houston, TX	3.0	3.0	1701	$2,350	$1.38	8d	1	1.29mi
3910 Woolworth St Houston, TX	3.0	2.0	1150	$1,750	$1.52	44d	1	1.35mi
1023 Hahlo St Houston, TX	4.0	2.0	1434	$1,775	$1.24	5d	1	1.43mi
4711 Sayers St Unit A Houston, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,650	$1.38	44d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-07
   days on market $199,900 Pending 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $199,900 Pending 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $199,900 Pending 28 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $199,900 Pending 27 DOM
5. 2026-05-14
   price $199,900 894-char remark
6. 2026-05-08
   price $225,000 894-char remark
7. 2026-05-04
   listed $199,900 Active 894-char remark
8. 2026-05-04
   historical
9. 2026-04-02
   price $239,900
10. 2026-03-23
    listed $249,900 Active
11. 2026-03-23
    historical
12. 2026-01-27
    price $249,900
13. 2026-01-15
    price $289,000
14. 2026-01-06
    listed $304,900 Active
15. 2026-01-06
    historical
16. 2025-12-01
    price $315,000
17. 2025-11-07
    listed $320,000 Active
18. 2025-02-09
    historical $2,350
19. 2024-12-05
    listed $2,350
20. 2024-09-25
    historical
21. 2024-08-26
    price $279,000
22. 2024-08-09
    price $295,000
23. 2024-08-06
    price $285,000
24. 2024-07-27
    price $309,900
25. 2024-06-13
    price $310,000
26. 2024-05-27
    listed $320,000 Active
27. 2024-05-21
    historical
28. 2024-01-26
    soldstatus
29. 2023-12-21
    historical
30. 2023-08-15
    listed $285,000 Active
31. 2023-08-03
    historical
32. 2023-08-01
    price $275,000
33. 2023-06-06
    price $285,000
34. 2023-04-23
    price $260,000
35. 2023-03-23
    listed $295,000 Active
36. 2023-03-10
    historical
37. 2023-02-10
    price $299,000
38. 2023-02-09
    price $285,000
39. 2023-01-22
    listed $304,000 Active
40. 2022-12-26
    historical
41. 2022-11-30
    price $319,000
42. 2022-11-06
    listed $329,000 Active
43. 2022-10-23
    historical
44. 2022-09-13
    price $305,000
45. 2022-09-02
    price $315,000
46. 2022-08-25
    listed $321,000 Active
47. 2022-07-30
    historical
48. 2022-07-11
    soldstatus
49. 2022-03-29
    listed $299,900 Active
50. 2021-03-26
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,977 · $498/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,977 · $498/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,035
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$5,977
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,843
• − Management: −$1,843
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$4,640
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,113
• After-tax cash flow: $-245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Houston ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823640
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $46,054
• Composite: 26.63/100
• National rank: #7173
• State rank: #593 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,981
• Household income: $39,211
• Rent vs Own: 56.3% rent · 43.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 49% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 18% White 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 34%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada
• Languages at home: 61% English-only · Spanish 39%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.89%
• Current HPI: 267.5995
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.08%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+2121.1% since first listed

56 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-07 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-27 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-05-08 Price Changed $225,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $199,900 HARMLS
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $239,900 HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $249,900 HARMLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $289,000 HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-01-06 Listed $304,900 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-07 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2025-02-09 Rental Removed $2,350 HARMLS
• 2024-12-05 Listed for Rent $2,350 HARMLS
• 2024-09-25 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2024-08-26 Price Changed $279,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-09 Price Changed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2024-08-06 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2024-07-27 Price Changed $309,900 HARMLS
• 2024-06-13 Price Changed $310,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-27 Listed $320,000 HARMLS
• 2024-05-21 Coming Soon — HARMLS
• 2024-01-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-21 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-15 Listed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2023-08-03 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-08-01 Price Changed $275,000 HARMLS
• 2023-06-06 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2023-04-23 Price Changed $260,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-23 Listed $295,000 HARMLS
• 2023-03-10 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2023-02-10 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2023-02-09 Price Changed $285,000 HARMLS
• 2023-01-22 Listed $304,000 HARMLS
• 2022-12-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $319,000 HARMLS
• 2022-11-06 Listed $329,000 HARMLS
• 2022-10-23 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-09-13 Price Changed $305,000 HARMLS
• 2022-09-02 Price Changed $315,000 HARMLS
• 2022-08-25 Listed $321,000 HARMLS
• 2022-07-30 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2022-07-11 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2022-03-29 Listed $299,900 HARMLS
• 2021-03-26 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-12-29 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2020-10-14 Price Changed $184,995 HARMLS
• 2020-02-16 Listed $165,900 HARMLS
• 2016-01-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2015-02-18 Price Changed $11,000 HARMLS
• 2014-09-16 Listed $12,000 HARMLS
• 2010-01-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-03-03 Listed $9,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+31.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,977 · +7.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.