4202 Ticonderoga Ln #66 · North Highlands, CA 95660

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 48 Days on market

Built 2006 $112/sqft · 83% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2 bath home has new flooring and paint feels like a brand new home. a remodeled kitchen with brand new appliance. The bathrooms are roomy with a nice soaking tub and showers. Home has fresh paint inside and out. New windows and doors. Completely upgraded. Located in a very nice quiet family park. Close to dining, shopping, schools and entertainment. Park residents have access to the swimming pool and more.

Key facts

• 2 parking spots
• Built 2006
• Listed 48 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $146k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.9% vs local median 4.1% in North Highlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#523 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D, crime F.
• Twin Rivers Unified (suburban): math 29% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #970 of 1,400 in CA (top 69%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.7%/yr); 108 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($68k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 5.7% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 48 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 20% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $125k; 20% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $145,500 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 48 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.37% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.01%
• DSCR: 1.89
• GRM: 6.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $82,019
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: 82.89%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 14 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5064 - 5477 S Valley Forge Ln #25	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	7mo	$88,900	$64	83
4139 Minute Man Ln	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,283 (-4%)	11mo	$92,000	$72	82
4133 Potomac Ln	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,298 (-3%)	10mo	$100,000	$77	79
4130 Annapolis Ln #159	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,225 (-9%)	9mo	$107,500	$88	73
4125 Potomac Ln #129	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-11%)	8mo	$58,000	$48	68
5040 Jackson St #110	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$81,500	$57	63
5040 Jackson St #60	0.36mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+7%)	4mo	$75,000	$52	62
5040 Jackson St #149	0.26mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-7%)	12mo	$88,000	$71	60
5040 Jackson St #23	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,213 (-10%)	13mo	$119,500	$99	60
5040 Jackson St #54	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,512 (+12%)	10mo	$75,000	$50	57
5040 Jackson St #44	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+14%)	9mo	$74,000	$48	54
3655 N Ohio Ln #87	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,522 (+13%)	13mo	$120,000	$79	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.69% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $25,976
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.49×
• Total profit: $104,679
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95660

• Rents YoY: 5.7%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 6.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,056 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$75 /mo · $895/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$432
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,169

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $785	-5% $743	+0% $700	+5% $658	+10% $615
Rent	-10% $538	-5% $619	+0% $700	+5% $782	+10% $863
Rate	-1.0pp $776	-0.5pp $739	base $700	+0.5pp $662	+1.0pp $622

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4020 Tricia Way Unit 4688001002 North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	44d	1	0.32mi
4008 Tricia Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,700	$1.89	13d	1	0.34mi
5123 Shell St North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	912	$1,950	$2.14	2d	1	0.47mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Unit 52 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,395	$1.55	2d	1	0.56mi
4561 Ashcroft Ave Apt 49 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	888	$1,499	$1.69	2d	1	0.56mi
5001 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1106	$2,400	$2.17	2d	1	0.57mi
3731 Scallop Ct North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$2,150	$2.33	44d	1	0.58mi
5048 Date Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,588	$1.59	44d	1	0.62mi
5516 Palmdale Way Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1115	$2,250	$2.02	21d	1	0.64mi
4930 Polk St North Highlands, CA	2.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	938	$1,795	$1.91	2d	3	0.65mi
4215 Palm Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,660	$2.14	2d	3	0.80mi
4716 Tulane Ct Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1303	$2,450	$1.88	24d	1	0.81mi
3609 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,795	$1.99	2d	2	0.81mi
5614 Hillsdale Blvd Unit A Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,450	$1.55	22d	1	0.88mi
4815 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0–1.5	1000	$1,662	$1.66	8d	2	0.89mi
5415 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	850	$1,725	$2.03	2d	3	0.90mi
3517 Myrtle Ave North Highlands, CA	2.0	2.0	900	$1,750	$1.94	3d	1	0.90mi
5625 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	875	$2,150	$2.46	2d	1	0.93mi
5600 Walerga Rd #4 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,700	$1.84	2d	1	0.94mi
5443 College Oak Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$1,850	$2.25	44d	3	0.95mi
5800 Hamilton St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	823	$1,770	$2.15	2d	4	0.95mi
4815 Mary Kate Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,850	$1.68	44d	1	0.96mi
4821 Mary Kate Dr Unit 4823 Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1050	$1,675	$1.60	2d	1	0.97mi
5674 Hillsdale Blvd Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	933	$1,600	$1.71	2d	1	0.97mi
4901 Little Oak Ln Sacramento, CA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	915	$1,832	$2.00	2d	7	0.99mi
5525 Missie Way Unit 8346003001/85 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,985	$1.99	2d	1	1.00mi
5012 Sunshine Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	970	$1,775	$1.83	11d	1	1.03mi
Venuto Way North Highlands, CA	2.0	1.0	906	$2,095	$2.31	11d	2	1.08mi
5733 San Vincente Way North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	925	$2,195	$2.37	2d	1	1.10mi
4255 Winding Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	1300	$1,995	$1.53	8d	1	1.10mi
4758 Greenholme Dr Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,595	$1.73	44d	1	1.14mi
5129 Myrtle Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.5	1275	$1,895	$1.49	44d	1	1.20mi
5720 Brett Dr Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1567	$2,650	$1.69	21d	1	1.22mi
5000 Tufts St Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1696	$2,700	$1.59	44d	1	1.25mi
4440 Oakhollow Dr Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	842	$1,590	$1.89	2d	8	1.28mi
6037 N Haven Dr North Highlands, CA	3.0	1.0	884	$2,150	$2.43	2d	1	1.28mi
5966 Walerga Rd #4 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	924	$1,550	$1.68	2d	1	1.31mi
5317 Marmith Ave Sacramento, CA	3.0	2.0	1580	$7,650	$4.84	45d	1	1.38mi
4209 Horgan Way Sacramento, CA	4.0	2.0	1450	$2,750	$1.90	24d	1	1.46mi
5322 Hemlock St Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	800	$1,875	$2.34	2d	2	1.46mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   status $150,000 Pending 48 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $150,000 Active 48 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $150,000 Active 47 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $150,000 Active 46 DOM
5. 2024-04-22
   soldstatus $124,900 Closed 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   This spacious beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2 bath home has new flooring and paint feels like a brand new home. a remodeled kitchen with brand new appliance. The bathrooms are roomy with a nice soaking tub and showers. Home has fresh paint inside and out. New windows and doors. Completely upgraded. Located in a very nice quiet family park. Close to dining, shopping, schools and entertainment. Park residents have access to the swimming pool and more.

6. 2024-04-22
   soldstatus $124,900 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   This spacious beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2 bath home has new flooring and paint feels like a brand new home. a remodeled kitchen with brand new appliance. The bathrooms are roomy with a nice soaking tub and showers. Home has fresh paint inside and out. New windows and doors. Completely upgraded. Located in a very nice quiet family park. Close to dining, shopping, schools and entertainment. Park residents have access to the swimming pool and more.

7. 2024-03-29
   status Pending 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   This spacious beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2 bath home has new flooring and paint feels like a brand new home. a remodeled kitchen with brand new appliance. The bathrooms are roomy with a nice soaking tub and showers. Home has fresh paint inside and out. New windows and doors. Completely upgraded. Located in a very nice quiet family park. Close to dining, shopping, schools and entertainment. Park residents have access to the swimming pool and more.

8. 2024-02-29
   listed $124,900 Active 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   This spacious beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2 bath home has new flooring and paint feels like a brand new home. a remodeled kitchen with brand new appliance. The bathrooms are roomy with a nice soaking tub and showers. Home has fresh paint inside and out. New windows and doors. Completely upgraded. Located in a very nice quiet family park. Close to dining, shopping, schools and entertainment. Park residents have access to the swimming pool and more.

9. 2024-02-29
   listed $124,900 453-char remark

   Show marketing remark (453 chars)

   This spacious beautifully updated 3 bedroom 2 bath home has new flooring and paint feels like a brand new home. a remodeled kitchen with brand new appliance. The bathrooms are roomy with a nice soaking tub and showers. Home has fresh paint inside and out. New windows and doors. Completely upgraded. Located in a very nice quiet family park. Close to dining, shopping, schools and entertainment. Park residents have access to the swimming pool and more.

10. 2009-09-02
    soldstatus $74,860

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $895 · $75/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,140 · $95/mo
• Expected delta: +$245/yr (+$20/mo · 27.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 38 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,669
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$895
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,974
• − Management: −$1,974
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $6,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,515
• After-tax cash flow: $6,890/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Twin Rivers Unified
• NCES district ID: 0601332
• Math proficiency: 29% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $42,481
• Composite: 30.67/100
• National rank: #11437
• State rank: #970 of 1400 in CA

Livability — North Highlands

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #523
• US rank: #17613

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Highlands, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 56,900
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 35,451
• Household income: $68,235
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1300.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Hispanic / Latino 37% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Scandinavian 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 56% English-only · Spanish 25% Russian/Polish/Slavic 9% Other Indo-European 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -273.83%
• Current HPI: 438.1022
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.69%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+66.8% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $124,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2024-04-22 Sold (MLS) $124,900 BAREIS
• 2024-03-29 Pending — BAREIS
• 2024-02-29 Listed $124,900 BAREIS
• 2024-02-29 Listed $124,900 San Francisco MLS
• 2009-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $74,860 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $895 · +82.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.