12251 Truchard Dr · Grangerland, TX 77306

$195,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,560 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 234 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition $125/sqft · 12% above area Est $174k · 12% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +2.2/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into charm and comfort with this beautifully updated home, thoughtfully designed for both style and functionality. A warm welcome begins at the newly added 6x6’ front porch and continues through the inviting 6x12’ back deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. Inside, you’ll find fresh paint throughout, a fully upgraded kitchen featuring newly repainted cabinets, modern cabinet hardware, and a butcher block island that adds both character and utility. The kitchen also boasts upgraded appliances, rebuilt pantry, and upgraded door hardware throughout the home. The living room showcases an elegant farmhouse beam, blending rustic charm with modern updates. Additional exterior upgrades include lattice skirting and a Blink camera doorbell for extra peace of mind. This home is truly move-in ready—offering the perfect balance of comfort, modern upgrades, and thoughtful details inside and out.

Key facts

• Inviting back deck
• Rebuilt pantry
• Butcher block island

Tags

• NEWLY ADDED FRONT PORCH
• INVITING BACK DECK
• FULLY UPGRADED KITCHEN
• BUTCHER BLOCK ISLAND
• UPGRADED APPLIANCES
• REBUILT PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $195k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $138 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (13.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (13.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.1% in Grangerland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Creighton El (math 31% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 940 students, 92% FRL); Moorhead J H (math 35% / reading 42%, grade F, #704 of 1,662 statewide, top 43%, 1,391 students, 82% FRL); Conroe H S (math 32% / reading 51%, grade F, #767 of 1,632 statewide, top 47%, 4,915 students, 61% FRL) — zoned schools average 78% FRL vs 34% district-wide (44 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 36% at this address vs 57% district-wide (-21 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Conroe ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 416 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $62k; list at $195k implies a 212% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $168,530 (13.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.03%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $174,440
• List price: $195,000
• Delta: 11.79%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11762 Brinkburn Ct	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,522 (-2%)	3mo	$253,990	$167	70
18796 Loom Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	1mo	$245,990	$154	66
11775 Brinkburn Ct	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,474 (-6%)	0mo	$203,090	$138	66
18764 Loom Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	2mo	$245,990	$154	65
18753 Loom Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,600 (+3%)	2mo	$241,990	$151	64
12070 Woodbrook Dr	0.50mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+7%)	1mo	$264,990	$159	59
12809 Naval Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-10%)	1mo	$231,990	$165	58
18789 Loom Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-10%)	2mo	$230,990	$165	57
18792 Loom Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,402 (-10%)	1mo	$231,990	$165	56
11881 Brunel Dr	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,667 (+7%)	3mo	$266,990	$160	56
11769 Brinkburn Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (+9%)	2mo	$266,990	$156	54
18902 Kingham Woods Ct	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,707 (+9%)	2mo	$268,990	$158	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-22,878
• Equity at exit: $29,075

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-8,885
• Equity at exit: $16,860

Cash invested: $54,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77306

• Home prices YoY: -4.1%
• Active inventory: 416
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,685 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,023
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,074/yr
• Insurance: −$81
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $138

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,511

Max offer price $195,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $248	-5% $193	+0% $138	+5% $83	+10% $28
Rent	-10% $5	-5% $71	+0% $138	+5% $205	+10% $271
Rate	-1.0pp $236	-0.5pp $188	base $138	+0.5pp $87	+1.0pp $36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $48,750
• Closing costs: $5,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $195,000 Active 234 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $195,000 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $195,000 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $195,000 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $195,000 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $195,000 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $195,000 Active 222 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $195,000 Active 221 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $195,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $195,000 Active 217 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $195,000 Active 216 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $195,000 Active 215 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $195,000 Active 214 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $195,000 Active 213 DOM
15. 2026-02-19
    price $195,000 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Step into charm and comfort with this beautifully updated home, thoughtfully designed for both style and functionality. A warm welcome begins at the newly added 6x6’ front porch and continues through the inviting 6x12’ back deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. Inside, you’ll find fresh paint throughout, a fully upgraded kitchen featuring newly repainted cabinets, modern cabinet hardware, and a butcher block island that adds both character and utility. The kitchen also boasts upgraded appliances, rebuilt pantry, and upgraded door hardware throughout the home. The living room showcases an elegant farmhouse beam, blending rustic charm with modern updates. Additional exterior upgrades include lattice skirting and a Blink camera doorbell for extra peace of mind. This home is truly move-in ready—offering the perfect balance of comfort, modern upgrades, and thoughtful details inside and out.

16. 2025-10-30
    listed $200,000 Active 937-char remark

    Show marketing remark (937 chars)

    Step into charm and comfort with this beautifully updated home, thoughtfully designed for both style and functionality. A warm welcome begins at the newly added 6x6’ front porch and continues through the inviting 6x12’ back deck, perfect for entertaining or relaxing outdoors. Inside, you’ll find fresh paint throughout, a fully upgraded kitchen featuring newly repainted cabinets, modern cabinet hardware, and a butcher block island that adds both character and utility. The kitchen also boasts upgraded appliances, rebuilt pantry, and upgraded door hardware throughout the home. The living room showcases an elegant farmhouse beam, blending rustic charm with modern updates. Additional exterior upgrades include lattice skirting and a Blink camera doorbell for extra peace of mind. This home is truly move-in ready—offering the perfect balance of comfort, modern upgrades, and thoughtful details inside and out.

17. 2025-05-06
    soldstatus $62,500
18. 2025-01-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,074 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,568 · $297/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,494/yr (+$208/mo · 232.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,923
• − Property taxes: −$1,074
• − Insurance: −$975
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,618
• − Management: −$1,618
• − Depreciation: −$5,673
• Taxable loss: −$1,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$398
• After-tax cash flow: $2,054/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This beautifully updated home offers a good condition with fresh paint and modern appliances, making it a great investment opportunity.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value.
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and value. ↑
• Resale Replace countertops — Modern countertops can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Smart home devices can improve convenience and energy efficiency, attracting both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,086
• Household income: $76,257
• Rent vs Own: 18.1% rent · 81.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 231.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (55%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% White 41% Two or more races 11% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 51%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada
• Languages at home: 53% English-only · Spanish 45% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.02%
• Current HPI: 306.3801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+212.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-19 Price Changed $195,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-30 Listed $200,000 HARMLS
• 2025-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $62,500 Public Records
• 2025-01-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records