70822 SW Douglas Dr · Green Meadows, OR 97801

$209,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,536 sqft · Manufactured · 8 Days on market

Built 1977 0.53 ac lot Est $267k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.8/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check out this 1977 double wide on a 0.53 acre lot. 3 bed 2 bath with 1536 sf(m/l) all on 1 level. Home has a wood stove for extra heat on those cold winter days. There is a shared well agreement and a septic system. The home needs tlc but this is a great opportunity at this price! Call today!

Key facts

• 0.53 acre lot
• Wood stove
• Septic system

Tags

• WOOD STOVE
• SHARED WELL AGREEMENT
• SEPTIC SYSTEM
• 0.53 ACRE LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property type: Residential; Property sub-type: Manufactured home on real property; Resale condition; Main level living area reported as 1,536 (county)
• Financial info: No land lease
• HOA & community: Not a senior community; Zoned RR2

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking
• Security: No built-in security features reported
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electric service and electric fuel
• Home design: Manufactured home on real property; Single-story (main living on one level); Valley view
• Construction: Built in 1977; Composition roof; Skirting foundation (manufactured-home skirting)
• Exterior features: Deck; Garden; RV parking; Public road access; T-111 siding; Seasonal and sloped lot; Gravel road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Free-standing range; Free-standing refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level; Second bedroom on main level; Third bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Ground-level, one-level living with accessibility features; Laminate and vinyl flooring; Laundry area; Wood-burning fireplace (1); Aluminum-framed windows; Crawl space
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $72 ($861/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $170k (18.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $170k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Pendleton SD 16 (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #24 of 58 in OR (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mckay Creek Elementary School (math 54% / reading 54%, grade C, #79 of 412 statewide, top 21%, 246 students, 65% FRL); Sunridge Middle School (math 28% / reading 43%, grade F, #59 of 128 statewide, top 46%, 637 students, 65% FRL); Pendleton High School (math 22% / reading 62%, grade F, #67 of 143 statewide, top 46%, 795 students, 73% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 44% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.7%/yr); 139 active listings in the ZIP; 205 units permitted in Umatilla County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Umatilla County population projected to shrink 3% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,218 (18.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.47%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $267,264
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
70809 SW Douglas Dr	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,728 (+12%)	20mo	$300,000	$174	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.41×
• Total profit: $-34,368
• Equity at exit: $31,163

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-43,647
• Equity at exit: $18,071

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97801

• Rents YoY: -2.7%
• Active inventory: 139
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,702 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$90 /mo · $1,079/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$357
• Net cashflow: $72

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,611

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $190	-5% $131	+0% $72	+5% $13	+10% $-47
Rent	-10% $-63	-5% $4	+0% $72	+5% $139	+10% $206
Rate	-1.0pp $177	-0.5pp $125	base $72	+0.5pp $18	+1.0pp $-38

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $209,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $209,000 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $209,000 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $209,000 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $209,000 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $209,000 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 295-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $209,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,079 · $90/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,027 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$948/yr (+$79/mo · 87.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 5 d/yr ≥97°F today · 11 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,426
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$1,079
• − Insurance: −$1,045
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,634
• − Management: −$1,634
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$2,753
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$661
• After-tax cash flow: $1,521/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pendleton SD 16
• NCES district ID: 4109510
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $49,009
• Composite: 30.19/100
• National rank: #6315
• State rank: #24 of 58 in OR

Livability — Green Meadows

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Green Meadows, OR
• County: Umatilla County · 29,551 people
• Metro: Hermiston-Pendleton, OR
• Population (ZIP): 21,575
• Household income: $71,639
• Rent vs Own: 39.3% rent · 60.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 866.0

Population outlook (Umatilla County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 76,329 people
• By 2030: 75,975 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 75,119 · -1.6%
• By 2050: 74,058 · -3.0%
• By 2075: 70,639 · -7.5%
• By 2100: 63,441 · -16.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Slovak 4% Portuguese 4%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Umatilla

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.8) · D 29.7% · R 67.5% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.1pp toward R · 2008: -22.6pp · 2024: -37.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+35.6 2012: R+28.1 2008: R+22.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -312.42%
• Current HPI: 198.6911
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.66%
• Metro: Hermiston-Pendleton, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $209,000 RMLS

Property tax history

+1.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,079 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.