22666 Lakeway Hbr · Emerald Bay, TX 75762

$90,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,020 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 206 Days on market

Built 2020 $88/sqft · 75% below area $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming retreat located in a serene lake community with access to Lake Palestine. This spacious modular home, built in 2020, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, providing a comfortable and modern living space. Nestled on three lots, surrounded by large, mature shade trees, it creates an ideal setting for relaxation and outdoor enjoyment. Perfect for lake lovers and those seeking a peaceful escape, this property combines conveniences with natural beauty. Don’t miss your chance to own this beautiful lakeside retreat!

Key facts

• Lakeside retreat
• Three lots
• Mature shade trees

Tags

• ACCESS TO LAKE PALESTINE
• MATURE SHADE TREES
• THREE LOTS
• LAKESIDE RETREAT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $759 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 16.4% vs local median 2.9% in Emerald Bay — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#293 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 354 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 206 days — a 12% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $7k; list at $90k implies a 1252% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 72% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 206 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.42%
• Cash-on-cash: 36.15%
• DSCR: 2.61
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $365,784
• List price: $90,000
• Delta: -75.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 31.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $33,849
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 39.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.65×
• Total profit: $92,054
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75762

• Home prices YoY: -28.4%
• Active inventory: 354
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,849 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$167 /mo · $2,003/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$388
• Net cashflow: $759

Break-even live

Break-even rent $888

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 54%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
22712 Creekwood Dr Flint, TX	2.0	1.0	992	$1,500	$1.51	13d	1	0.08mi
16584 Lakeway Cir Flint, TX	3.0	2.0	1500	$1,050	$0.70	13d	1	0.26mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-31
   days on market $90,000 Active 206 DOM
2. 2026-05-30
   days on market $90,000 Active 205 DOM
3. 2026-05-18
   price $90,000 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Welcome to this charming retreat located in a serene lake community with access to Lake Palestine. This spacious modular home, built in 2020, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, providing a comfortable and modern living space. Nestled on three lots, surrounded by large, mature shade trees, it creates an ideal setting for relaxation and outdoor enjoyment. Perfect for lake lovers and those seeking a peaceful escape, this property combines conveniences with natural beauty. Don’t miss your chance to own this beautiful lakeside retreat!

4. 2026-01-17
   price $100,000 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Welcome to this charming retreat located in a serene lake community with access to Lake Palestine. This spacious modular home, built in 2020, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, providing a comfortable and modern living space. Nestled on three lots, surrounded by large, mature shade trees, it creates an ideal setting for relaxation and outdoor enjoyment. Perfect for lake lovers and those seeking a peaceful escape, this property combines conveniences with natural beauty. Don’t miss your chance to own this beautiful lakeside retreat!

5. 2025-11-07
   listed $112,500 Active 538-char remark

   Show marketing remark (538 chars)

   Welcome to this charming retreat located in a serene lake community with access to Lake Palestine. This spacious modular home, built in 2020, offers 3 bedrooms and 2 baths, providing a comfortable and modern living space. Nestled on three lots, surrounded by large, mature shade trees, it creates an ideal setting for relaxation and outdoor enjoyment. Perfect for lake lovers and those seeking a peaceful escape, this property combines conveniences with natural beauty. Don’t miss your chance to own this beautiful lakeside retreat!

6. 2024-12-06
   listed $120,000 Active
7. 2021-02-09
   soldstatus
8. 2014-06-10
   soldstatus $6,657
9. 1996-09-05
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,003 · $167/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,003 · $167/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 72% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,186
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$2,003
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,775
• − Management: −$1,775
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $8,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,974
• After-tax cash flow: $7,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Emerald Bay

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #293
• US rank: #6721

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Smith County · 180,570 people
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• Population (ZIP): 15,704
• Household income: $90,057
• Rent vs Own: 14.6% rent · 85.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 98.0

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 13% Black 11%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 2% Serbian 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 13%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -78.39%
• Current HPI: 197.2375
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tyler, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1252.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $90,000 GTAR
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $100,000 GTAR
• 2025-11-07 Listed $112,500 GTAR
• 2024-12-06 Listed $120,000 GTAR
• 2021-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2014-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $6,657 Public Records
• 1996-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+38.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,003 · +706.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.