19946 Mountain Dale Dr · Houston, TX 77433

$197,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,289 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1983 4,830 sqft lot Est $217k · 9% under $39/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.2/30.0
• ARV discount +11.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Updated one-story home in Lancaster offering peace of mind with major system upgrades already completed. Recent improvements include a new HVAC system (2025), full-home PEX repipe (2025), interior/exterior paint (2023), updated flooring (2023), energy-efficient windows (2022), and a water heater (2021). Just off the entry, the spacious family room features luxury vinyl plank flooring and a cozy wood-burning fireplace, creating the perfect gathering space. The kitchen offers abundant cabinet storage and matching stainless steel appliances and flows seamlessly into the adjoining dining room. The generously sized primary suite includes dual closets and a private ensuite bath with a walk-in sho

Key facts

• Large backyard
• New hvac system
• Full-home pex repipe

Tags

• NEW HVAC SYSTEM
• FULL-HOME PEX REPIPE
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT WINDOWS
• COZY WOOD-BURNING FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT CABINET STORAGE
• LARGE BACKYARD

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Lancaster HOA with an annual fee of $470

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 1983; Slab foundation; Composition roof
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Patio; Fence (back yard); Private yard; Subdivision setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor (approximately 14 x 13); Second bedroom on the first floor (approximately 12 x 10); Third bedroom on the first floor (approximately 11 x 10)
• Flooring: Carpet; Plank; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Wood-burning fireplace; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Has heating and cooling (see Heating & cooling section for details)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-40 ($-479/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $190k (3.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $197k (0.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (3.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Cypress-Fairbanks ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #161 of 826 in TX (top 20%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hopper Middle (math 24% / reading 34%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 930 students, 80% FRL); Cypress Springs H S (math 35% / reading 60%, grade D, #583 of 1,632 statewide, top 36%, 2,788 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 43% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.3%/yr); 2034 active listings in the ZIP; 39 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($144k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($195k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $37k; list at $198k implies a 434% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.7% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,453 (3.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.05%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.87%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $216,552
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
19927 Mountain Dale Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,282 (-0%)	1mo	$199,000	$155	94
19956 Sutton Falls Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+3%)	3mo	$199,900	$151	89
7114 Pheasant Grove Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-5%)	3mo	$227,000	$185	72
7343 Village Lake Dr	0.32mi	3/2.5	1,350 (+5%)	4mo	$212,900	$158	72
19427 Elmtree Estates Dr	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+3%)	1mo	$220,000	$166	71
7351 Village Lake Dr	0.33mi	3/2.5	1,364 (+6%)	4mo	$229,000	$168	70
19407 Glenway Falls Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+3%)	2mo	$229,900	$173	68
19822 Creston Cove Ct	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,303 (+1%)	1mo	$210,000	$161	67
6734 Prairie Village Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,326 (+3%)	0mo	$225,000	$170	66
6727 Cypress Glades Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,256 (-3%)	4mo	$225,000	$179	63
7303 Rising Brook Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,157 (-10%)	0mo	$205,000	$177	63
7315 Prairie Village Dr	0.48mi	3/2.0	1,386 (+8%)	5mo	$225,000	$162	61

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-40,140
• Equity at exit: $29,448

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-59,816
• Equity at exit: $17,076

Cash invested: $55,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77433

• Home prices YoY: -28.5%
• Rents YoY: -1.3%
• Active inventory: 2034
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,968 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,036
• Tax from tax record: −$437 /mo · $5,248/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$39
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$413
• Net cashflow: $-40

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,018

Max offer price $190,453

Occupancy floor 97%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,375
• Closing costs: $5,925
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 39 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19917 Stoney Haven Dr Cypress, TX	2.0	1.5	1060	$1,579	$1.49	44d	1	0.15mi
20123 Braley Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.5	1726	$2,036	$1.18	4d	1	0.25mi
19715 Swan Valley Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1380	$1,886	$1.37	44d	1	0.43mi
19442 Elmtree Estates Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1735	$1,776	$1.02	13d	1	0.45mi
19943 Crested Hill Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1204	$1,621	$1.35	7d	1	0.53mi
20126 Breezy Oak Ct Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1667	$2,100	$1.26	4d	1	0.54mi
19434 Glenway Falls Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1326	$1,800	$1.36	44d	1	0.54mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	44d	1	0.56mi
20978 Farm to Market Road 529 Unit SWFS2 Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,725	$1.68	3d	1	0.56mi
6810 N Fry Rd Katy, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1151	$2,683	$2.33	2d	56	0.64mi
7850 Maverick Trace Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	3.0	1852	$1,875	$1.01	44d	1	0.72mi
19607 Buckland Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1798	$1,965	$1.09	3d	1	0.82mi
6619 Rusty Ridge Ln Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1450	$1,895	$1.31	4d	1	0.86mi
20507 Barker Bend Ct Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1488	$1,825	$1.23	44d	1	0.86mi
20735 Dewberry Creek Ln Katy, TX	4.0	2.0	1609	$1,756	$1.09	22d	1	0.87mi
19939 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,105	$2.26	2d	15	0.90mi
7310 Coconut Bay Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1620	$2,307	$1.42	44d	1	0.94mi
20211 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1065	$2,506	$2.35	2d	27	0.94mi
20217 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,565	$1.41	44d	1	1.00mi
19638 Billineys Park Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.5	1752	$1,750	$1.00	20d	1	1.02mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	24d	1	1.02mi
20634 Longenbaugh Rd Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	44d	1	1.02mi
6502 Wellington Meadows Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1416	$1,500	$1.06	13d	1	1.02mi
7323 Livery Ln Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1516	$1,780	$1.17	22d	1	1.04mi
21054 Breezeway Cove Dr Bridgeland, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.5	1784	$2,408	$1.35	3d	41	1.08mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	7d	1	1.10mi
18723 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	3.0	2.0	1274	$1,750	$1.37	11d	1	1.10mi
21035 Carmel Valley Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1431	$1,791	$1.25	24d	1	1.12mi
21038 Treasure Gate Ln Cypress, TX	4.0	2.5	1804	$2,676	$1.48	44d	1	1.18mi
21054 Montego Breeze Ln Cypress, TX	3.0–5.0	2.0–3.5	1935	$2,199	$1.14	13d	21	1.23mi
6506 Garden Canyon Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1842	$1,895	$1.03	22d	1	1.25mi
19299 W Little York Rd Unit ACS2 Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,984	$1.78	44d	1	1.27mi
18531 Lippizaner Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1692	$1,799	$1.06	22d	1	1.28mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	44d	1	1.28mi
19501 W Little York Rd Katy, TX	2.0	2.0	990	$1,250	$1.26	24d	1	1.28mi
21235 Catalina Palm Dr Cypress, TX	4.0	2.0	1756	$2,600	$1.48	44d	1	1.29mi
20967 Young Meadows Way Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1256	$1,795	$1.43	7d	1	1.39mi
6402 Wild River Dr Katy, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,091	$1.33	3d	1	1.44mi
8357 Fry Rd Unit FCC Cypress, TX	2.0	2.0	1018	$1,775	$1.74	11d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $39 · $468/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,500 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,500 Pending 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,500 Pending 15 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   status $197,500 Pending 14 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,500 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,500 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $197,500 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $197,500 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,500 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-02
    listed $197,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,248 · $437/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,248 · $437/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,063
• − Property taxes: −$5,248
• − Insurance: −$988
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,889
• − Management: −$1,889
• − HOA: −$468
• − Depreciation: −$5,745
• Taxable loss: −$3,678
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$883
• After-tax cash flow: $404/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cypress-Fairbanks ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816110
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $72,025
• Composite: 43.63/100
• National rank: #2968
• State rank: #161 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 116,550
• Household income: $143,934
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1700.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.73)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 27% Black 17% Two or more races 14% Asian 13%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 21% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 19% Other Indo-European 4% Vietnamese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.83%
• Current HPI: 220.2136
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.27%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+433.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $197,500 HARMLS
• 1998-05-07 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1998-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,248 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.