55 Sugar St #10 · Newtown, CT 06470

$119,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 576 sqft · Manufactured public records · 220 Days on market

Built 2025 871 sqft lot $207/sqft · 18% below area Est $139k · 14% under $585/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.6/30.0
• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +8.5/10.0
• Schools +6.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Brand-new one-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home in Black Bear Village. This newly built home features an open-concept living area with modern finishes, a bright kitchen with new appliances, and a comfortable bedroom with ample closet space. The full bathroom offers contemporary fixtures, design, and a washer and dryer hookup. Energy-efficient construction, new mechanicals, and convenient single-level living make this home a great option for easy maintenance. Lot rent of $585 includes land rent, common area maintenance, water, sewer, and trash. Move-in ready and close to local shops, restaurants, and major routes. Building Town tax is to be approximately $800.00 per year, please ignore the automated land tax displayed.

Key facts

• Built 2025
• Listed 220 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $283 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.1% vs local median 1.9% in Newtown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#51 in CT, #3,286 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Newtown School District (suburban): math 59% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #24 of 153 in CT (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 5% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 220 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 220 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.68% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.15%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.20%
• DSCR: 1.45
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $139,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -14.39%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.97×
• Total profit: $-929
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $23,717
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06470

• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$38 /mo · $459/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$585
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $283

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,642

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $350	-5% $317	+0% $283	+5% $249	+10% $216
Rent	-10% $125	-5% $204	+0% $283	+5% $362	+10% $441
Rate	-1.0pp $343	-0.5pp $313	base $283	+0.5pp $252	+1.0pp $221

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
55 Sugar St #17 Newtown, CT	2.0	1.0	480	$2,000	$4.17	45d	1	0.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $585 · $7,020/yr
• Likely covers: watersewertrash

Listing history 2 events

1. 2025-10-18
   listed $119,000 Active 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Brand-new one-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home in Black Bear Village. This newly built home features an open-concept living area with modern finishes, a bright kitchen with new appliances, and a comfortable bedroom with ample closet space. The full bathroom offers contemporary fixtures, design, and a washer and dryer hookup. Energy-efficient construction, new mechanicals, and convenient single-level living make this home a great option for easy maintenance. Lot rent of $585 includes land rent, common area maintenance, water, sewer, and trash. Move-in ready and close to local shops, restaurants, and major routes. Building Town tax is to be approximately $800.00 per year, please ignore the automated land tax displayed.

2. 2025-10-11
   historical $119,000 727-char remark

   Show marketing remark (727 chars)

   Brand-new one-bedroom, one-bathroom mobile home in Black Bear Village. This newly built home features an open-concept living area with modern finishes, a bright kitchen with new appliances, and a comfortable bedroom with ample closet space. The full bathroom offers contemporary fixtures, design, and a washer and dryer hookup. Energy-efficient construction, new mechanicals, and convenient single-level living make this home a great option for easy maintenance. Lot rent of $585 includes land rent, common area maintenance, water, sewer, and trash. Move-in ready and close to local shops, restaurants, and major routes. Building Town tax is to be approximately $800.00 per year, please ignore the automated land tax displayed.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,503 · $125/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,044/yr (+$87/mo · 227.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$459
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − HOA: −$7,020
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,958
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$470
• After-tax cash flow: $2,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Newtown School District
• NCES district ID: 0902910
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $110,184
• Composite: 60.11/100
• National rank: #870
• State rank: #24 of 153 in CT

Livability — Newtown

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #51
• US rank: #3286

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 15,576

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 12% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2% Salvadoran 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Dominican Republic, China
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.23%
• Current HPI: 209.6686
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2025-10-18 Listed $119,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-10-11 Coming Soon $119,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+0.2%/yr

Latest (2023): $459 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.