6305 W Limberlost Cir · Knik-Fairview, AK 99623

$249,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Other public records · 26 Days on market

Built 1984 3.57 ac lot $217/sqft · 33% below area Est $374k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.5/30.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.3/10.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

3.57 acres Home has GOOD BONES. Electric, Septic, Well. 1152 sft of living spc and 768 ft of unfinished basement for your desires. Sit high on a bluff for all the sun you want. Lot is a 2-family dwelling lot w/ one dwelling. Fenced garden area w/ fruit trees and or a horse coral. Multiple out buildings sheds shops. Estate Sale. Estate to be cashed out. Big down, good terms, call, to be considered

Key facts

• 3.57 acre lot
• Built 1984
• Listed 26 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage; No carport
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Residential property; Not attached to another unit
• Construction: Wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Built in 1984
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Private yard; Fire pit; Fire service area; Horse property; Bluff lot; Road service area; Storage

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (total)
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (1 full bath, 1 three-quarter bath)
• Interior features: Basement; Bedroom and bathroom on main level; Primary bedroom and bathroom on main level; Electric service; Window coverings; Wood stove

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-222 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $211k (15.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.3% in Knik-Fairview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Goose Bay Elementary (336 students, 42% FRL); Wasilla Middle School (math 30% / reading 46%, grade F, #18 of 36 statewide, top 49%, 610 students, 44% FRL); Wasilla High School (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #42 of 61 statewide, top 82%, 848 students, 35% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 31% at this address vs 46% district-wide (-15 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 414 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $169,064 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.23%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.80%
• DSCR: 0.83
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $374,294
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -33.23%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.17% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-54,406
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-64,689
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99623

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 414
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,691 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$143 /mo · $1,713/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$355
• Net cashflow: $-222

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,971

Max offer price $210,729

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-151	+0% $-222	+5% $-292	+10% $-363
Rent	-10% $-355	-5% $-289	+0% $-222	+5% $-155	+10% $-88
Rate	-1.0pp $-96	-0.5pp $-158	base $-222	+0.5pp $-286	+1.0pp $-352

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2898 Vine Rd Wasilla, AK	1.0	1.0	960	$1,500	$1.56	44d	1	0.22mi
4980 Kelsi Loop Unit 1 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,350	$1.81	24d	1	1.21mi
6850 W Lilly Pad Cir Unit 3 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	24d	1	1.25mi
1635 S Pollywog Pl Unit B Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1100	$1,900	$1.73	14d	1	1.35mi
1622 S Blue Duck Cir Unit 2 Wasilla, AK	3.0	2.0	1129	$1,900	$1.68	14d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-06-01
   status $249,900 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-05-05
   listed $249,900 Active 399-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AK · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,713 · $143/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,343 · $195/mo
• Expected delta: +$631/yr (+$53/mo · 36.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,288
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,713
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,623
• − Management: −$1,623
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$7,189
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,725
• After-tax cash flow: $-936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Knik-Fairview

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Knik-Fairview, AK
• County: Matanuska Susitna Borough · 100,174 people
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• Population (ZIP): 23,424
• Household income: $88,799
• Rent vs Own: 18.0% rent · 82.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 285.0

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Two or more races 10% Native American 8% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Matanuska-Susitna

• 2016 margin: R (+15.2) · D 37.7% · R 52.9% · Other 9.4%
• All cycles: 2016: R+15.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -48.82%
• Current HPI: 200.2242
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.17%
• Metro: Anchorage, AK
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-31 Pending — AKMLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $249,900 AKMLS

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $1,713 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.