5420 Cove Garden Rd · North Garden, VA 22931

$469,500

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,696 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 180 Days on market

Built 2006 1.46 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This beautifully updated home in Albemarle County is truly move-in ready! Set on 1.46 acres with partial mountain views, this 4-bedroom, 3.5-bath home has been completely renovated from top to bottom—offering the perfect blend of modern style and comfort. Step inside to find gleaming solid oak hardwood floors and a bright, open layout. The all-new kitchen features soft-close cabinetry, quartz countertops, a stainless steel farmhouse sink, and space for an eat-in dining area. Step right out to the side deck—perfect for grilling and summer nights! The living room room opens to a spacious back deck ideal for relaxing or entertaining, while the wide front porch welcomes you with cha

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Soft-close cabinetry
• All-new kitchen

Tags

• PARTIAL MOUNTAIN VIEWS
• SOLID OAK HARDWOOD FLOORS
• ALL-NEW KITCHEN
• SOFT-CLOSE CABINETRY
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL FARMHOUSE SINK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $470k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-12k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $290k (38.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (50.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (50.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Red Hill Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #742 of 1,108 statewide, top 70%, 201 students, 68% FRL); Leslie H. Walton Middle (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #38 of 342 statewide, top 11%, 339 students, 38% FRL); Monticello High (math 49% / reading 81%, grade B, #210 of 319 statewide, top 66%, 1,229 students, 56% FRL) — zoned schools average 54% FRL vs 23% district-wide (31 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $17k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 180 days — a 12% lower offer ($413k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $200k; list at $470k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $234,221 (50.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 180 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 50% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.50% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.70%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.27%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 16.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $7,127
• Equity at exit: $227,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.74×
• Total profit: $97,183
• Equity at exit: $363,980

Cash invested: $131,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22931

• Home prices YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 16.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,342 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,462
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,495/yr
• Insurance: −$196
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$492
• Net cashflow: $-1,015

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,627

Max offer price $290,141

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $117,375
• Closing costs: $14,085
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-04-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-29
   status Active
3. 2026-02-02
   status Active
4. 2025-12-13
   historical
5. 2025-08-11
   price $469,500
6. 2025-07-24
   listed $489,500 Active
7. 2016-10-03
   soldstatus $200,000
8. 2015-10-12
   listed $200,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,495 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,850 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,355/yr (+$113/mo · 54.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,107
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,299
• − Property taxes: −$2,495
• − Insurance: −$2,348
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,249
• − Management: −$2,249
• − Depreciation: −$13,658
• Taxable loss: −$21,191
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,086
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,098/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — North Garden

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 219

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.61%
• Current HPI: 275.8852
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+134.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Pending — CAAR
• 2026-03-29 Relisted — CAAR
• 2026-02-02 Relisted — CAAR
• 2025-12-13 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2025-08-11 Price Changed $469,500 CAAR
• 2025-07-24 Listed $489,500 CAAR
• 2016-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2015-10-12 Listed $200,000 CAAR

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,495 · -3.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.