2423 Harnage St · Lake Isabella, CA 93240

$59,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 22 Days on market

Built 1976 Fair condition 6,534 sqft lot Est $77k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0

Listing remarks

The previous owner was in the middle of rehabbing this home and is selling it unfinished. seller is very motivated so make an offer. 1976, 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms. There is a master bedroom with a full bath and a Jack and Jill half bathroom next to the 2 guest bedrooms. Fully fenced, All the insulation and everything comes with it. This property is the heart of Lake Isabella town in the Kern river Valley and is close to the Lake for the fishing derby, the "Trail of 100 GIANTS" for the HUGE redwood trees, The Kern River in Kernville with river rafting, fly fishing, famous Brewery, airport and only a few hours North of Los Angeles! Great place to retire with only 3 stop lights in th

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Close to the lake
• Kern river

Tags

• JACK AND JILL HALF BATHROOM
• FULLY FENCED
• HEART OF LAKE ISABELLA
• CLOSE TO THE LAKE
• TRAIL OF 100 GIANTS
• KERN RIVER

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Residential property; Fixer-upper
• Construction: Composition/Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Has a view

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $59k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $844 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $59k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 23.5% vs local median 7.4% in Lake Isabella — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#999 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A, cost of living B+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Kernville Union Elementary (rural): math 20% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #1,128 of 1,400 in CA (top 81%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 135 active listings in the ZIP; 3,244 units permitted in Kern County in 2024 (73 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($408 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.5% local appreciation)).
• Kern County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.5% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 10→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,115 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 23.46%
• Cash-on-cash: 61.30%
• DSCR: 3.73
• GRM: 3.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $76,800
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2243 Hinson St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	11mo	$80,000	$111	56
1819 Curran	0.40mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	0mo	$69,000	$96	55
1825 Williams Ct	0.31mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	8mo	$55,000	$76	54
1755 Curran Ave	0.39mi	2/2.0 (-1)	840 (+5%)	21mo	$70,000	$83	51
2301 Harnage St	0.15mi	2/1.0 (-1)	684 (-14%)	16mo	$53,500	$78	46
2040 Young Ave	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	720 (-10%)	21mo	$70,000	$97	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.55% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.19×
• Total profit: $69,238
• Equity at exit: $35,426

10-year hold

• IRR: 66.2%
• Equity multiple: 10.81×
• Total profit: $162,083
• Equity at exit: $62,853

Cash invested: $16,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93240

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 135
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,584 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$309
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $844

Break-even live

Break-even rent $516

Max offer price $59,000

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,750
• Closing costs: $1,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $59,000 Active 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $59,000 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $59,000 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $59,000 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $59,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $59,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $59,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 4 DOM
16. 2026-05-27
    listed $59,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 10 d/yr ≥93°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 24 unhealthy d/yr today · 30 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,305
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,521
• − Management: −$1,521
• − Depreciation: −$1,716
• Taxable income: $9,768
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,344
• After-tax cash flow: $7,782/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its resale or rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — Significant wear and potential leaks.
• Major exterior siding — Peeling paint and general discoloration.
• Major flooring — Visible wear and tear.
• Major interior walls/paint — Visible wear and tear.
• Major windows — Visible wear and tear.
• Major foundation/structure — Visible wear and tear.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — Visible wear and tear.
• Major landscaping — Visible wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Both painting and repainting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal.
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall condition.
• Both exterior siding repair — A repaired exterior can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal.
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and comfort.
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Fresh paint and repairs can improve the home's appearance and comfort.
• Both window repair or replacement — New or repaired windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and comfort.
• Both foundation and structure repair — A repaired foundation and structure can improve the home's structural integrity and comfort.
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency.
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
roof · Significant wear and potential leaks.	Major	$15,000–50,000
exterior siding · Peeling paint and general discoloration.	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping · Visible wear and tear.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 8 items		$120,000–400,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both painting and repainting — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — A clean and functioning HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both roof repair — A repaired roof can prevent water damage and improve the home's overall condition. ↑
• Both exterior siding repair — A repaired exterior can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal. ↑
• Both flooring replacement — New flooring can improve the home's appearance and comfort. ↑
• Both interior wall and paint repair — Fresh paint and repairs can improve the home's appearance and comfort. ↑
• Both window repair or replacement — New or repaired windows can improve the home's energy efficiency and comfort. ↑
• Both foundation and structure repair — A repaired foundation and structure can improve the home's structural integrity and comfort. ↑
• Both HVAC system replacement — A new HVAC system can improve the home's comfort and energy efficiency. ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — A well-maintained landscape can improve the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kernville Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619590
• Math proficiency: 20% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $29,896
• Composite: 25.91/100
• National rank: #12766
• State rank: #1128 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lake Isabella

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #999
• US rank: #24814

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Isabella, CA
• City population: 5,622
• Population (ZIP): 5,622

Population outlook (Kern County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 947,286 people
• By 2030: 978,984 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 1,045,018 · +10.3%
• By 2050: 1,105,232 · +16.7%
• By 2075: 1,229,538 · +29.8%
• By 2100: 1,238,059 · +30.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 5% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Korean 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kern

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.1) · D 38.2% · R 59.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -17.8pp · 2024: -21.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.1 2020: R+10.2 2016: R+15.0 2012: R+20.9 2008: R+17.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.55%
• Current HPI: 341.2481
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $59,000 SSMLS