15491 Eve Dr · Pymatuning North, PA 16424

$215,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,800 sqft · SingleFamily · 16 Days on market

Built 1969 4.55 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +9.2/10.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks

Secluded 1.5-story home nestled on 4.5 acres and bordering Pymatuning State Park on the north shore of the lake. This 3-bedroom, 2 full bath property offers the perfect setting for a lake retreat or year-round country living. Just minutes from Wilson and Alcatraz - a fisherman's paradise! Allotment residents have their own private lake access. Enjoy flexible heating options with both wood stoves and an oil furnace. The attached 3-bay garage provides ample space for vehicles, hobbies, and storage, while the oversized carport is ideal for a boat or RV. Inside, you'll find a bonus pantry for additional storage and a dedicated bar area, perfect for entertaining. On the second floor, you'll find

Key facts

• Lake retreat
• Wood stoves
• Oil furnace

Tags

• 4.5 ACRES
• BORDERS STATE GAME LANDS
• LAKE RETREAT
• FLEXIBLE HEATING OPTIONS
• WOOD STOVES
• OIL FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 3-car garage
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; One and one-half stories
• Construction: Frame construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Secluded lot; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher
• Flooring: Hardwood floors; Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Has heating (see remarks)
• Interior features: Decorative fireplace (1); Dishwasher; Crawl space basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $174k (19.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $153k (28.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $153k (28.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,568 in PA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Conneaut SD (rural): math 38% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #241 of 539 in PA (top 45%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Conneaut Valley El Sch (math 57% / reading 62%, grade B-, #377 of 1,518 statewide, top 28%, 316 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Valley Ms (math 29% / reading 58%, grade D, #208 of 512 statewide, top 41%, 259 students, 100% FRL); Conneaut Area Senior High (math 95% / reading 24%, grade C+, #79 of 437 statewide, top 18%, 579 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 44% district-wide (50 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 83 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $18k appreciation (8.5% local appreciation)).
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $153,300 (28.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.63%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

8.48% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.34×
• Total profit: $80,468
• Equity at exit: $170,480

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.07×
• Total profit: $244,934
• Equity at exit: $345,447

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16424

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,533 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$226 /mo · $2,718/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$322
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,827

Max offer price $173,930

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-111	-5% $-172	+0% $-232	+5% $-293	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-354	-5% $-293	+0% $-232	+5% $-172	+10% $-111
Rate	-1.0pp $-124	-0.5pp $-178	base $-232	+0.5pp $-288	+1.0pp $-345

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-02
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $215,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,718 · $226/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,057 · $255/mo
• Expected delta: +$340/yr (+$28/mo · 12.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,396
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,718
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,472
• − Management: −$1,472
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$6,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,593
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conneaut SD
• NCES district ID: 4206590
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $43,946
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3813
• State rank: #241 of 539 in PA

Livability — Pymatuning North

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1568
• US rank: #20867

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pymatuning North, PA
• Population (ZIP): 4,328

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,399 people
• By 2030: 77,977 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 70,659 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 63,841 · -21.6%
• By 2075: 50,198 · -38.3%
• By 2100: 37,898 · -53.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 3% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.2) · D 30.0% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.8pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -39.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.2 2020: R+37.2 2016: R+38.5 2012: R+19.6 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 8.48%
• Current HPI: 276.8388
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Pending — GEBOR
• 2026-04-13 Listed $215,000 GEBOR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,718 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.