8740 SE Yeshua Ln · Southworth, WA 98367

$279,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1994 1.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on 1.24 acres, this 3Bdrm/2bath home offers space, privacy, and a chance to add your own improvements. The open floor plan features vaulted ceilings and good natural light, creating a functional layout with potential to personalize. Existing features includes an efficient ductless heating system. The property is surrounded by trees for a peaceful, private feel, yet is conveniently located just minutes from the Southworth Ferry & schools. HUD home, sold "as-is".

Key facts

• 1.24 acres
• Surrounded by trees
• Minutes from schools

Tags

• 1.24 ACRES
• DUCTLESS HEATING SYSTEM
• SURROUNDED BY TREES
• MINUTES FROM SOUTHWORTH FERRY
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $279k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $362 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $274k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $274k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#317 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• South Kitsap School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #71 of 291 in WA (top 24%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: South Colby Elementary (290 students, 32% FRL); South Kitsap High School (2,389 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 356 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,294 units permitted in Kitsap County in 2024 (302 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kitsap County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $274,476 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.85%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.56%
• DSCR: 1.25
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.67×
• Total profit: $-25,984
• Equity at exit: $41,600

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-8,266
• Equity at exit: $24,123

Cash invested: $78,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98367

• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 356
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,745 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,463
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,721/yr
• Insurance: −$116
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$576
• Net cashflow: $362

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,286

Max offer price $279,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $520	-5% $441	+0% $362	+5% $283	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $145	-5% $254	+0% $362	+5% $471	+10% $579
Rate	-1.0pp $503	-0.5pp $433	base $362	+0.5pp $290	+1.0pp $216

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,750
• Closing costs: $8,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 36 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-19
   status Active
3. 2026-04-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-04-03
   status Active
5. 2026-02-17
   status Pending
6. 2026-02-06
   listed $279,000 Active
7. 2019-05-21
   soldstatus $277,573 Sold
8. 2019-05-21
   soldstatus $277,573
9. 2019-04-12
   status Pending Inspection
10. 2019-04-04
    listed $275,000 Active
11. 2017-03-31
    soldstatus $208,500 Sold
12. 2017-03-31
    soldstatus $208,500
13. 2017-03-08
    status Pending
14. 2017-03-02
    status Pending Inspection
15. 2017-01-17
    price $210,000
16. 2016-11-27
    status Active
17. 2016-11-27
    price $215,000
18. 2016-11-08
    historical Taken Off Market
19. 2016-10-18
    status Active
20. 2016-10-08
    status Pending
21. 2016-09-20
    status Pending Inspection
22. 2016-09-13
    price $212,000
23. 2016-08-19
    price $215,000
24. 2016-07-22
    status Active
25. 2016-06-28
    status Pending
26. 2016-06-10
    status Pending Inspection
27. 2016-06-08
    listed $230,000 Active
28. 2008-07-23
    soldstatus $140,000 Sold
29. 2008-07-23
    soldstatus $140,000
30. 2008-07-14
    historical
31. 2008-07-11
    historical
32. 2008-05-10
    historical
33. 2008-04-03
    price $140,000
34. 2007-10-25
    listed $155,000
35. 2007-10-06
    listed $140,000
36. 1993-08-05
    soldstatus $11,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,721 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,734 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$13/yr (+$1/mo · 0.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥86°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 8 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,937
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,628
• − Property taxes: −$2,721
• − Insurance: −$1,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,635
• − Management: −$2,635
• − Depreciation: −$8,116
• Taxable loss: −$193
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$46
• After-tax cash flow: $4,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: South Kitsap School District
• NCES district ID: 5308160
• Math proficiency: 52% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $62,824
• Composite: 52.31/100
• National rank: #3445
• State rank: #71 of 291 in WA

Livability — Southworth

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #11562

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kitsap County · 243,099 people
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,756
• Household income: $115,482
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 595.0

Population outlook (Kitsap County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 277,525 people
• By 2030: 285,040 · +2.7%
• By 2040: 294,957 · +6.3%
• By 2050: 300,622 · +8.3%
• By 2075: 315,580 · +13.7%
• By 2100: 304,340 · +9.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 4% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Italian 7% Portuguese 6% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% Other Asian/Pacific 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Kitsap

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.9) · D 58.8% · R 37.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 12.3pp · 2024: 20.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.9 2020: D+18.1 2016: D+11.6 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -441.02%
• Current HPI: 351.671
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.60%
• Metro: Bremerton-Silverdale-Port Orchard, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+2326.1% since first listed

36 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-19 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-09 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-03 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-17 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-06 Listed $279,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-21 Sold (Public Records) $277,573 Public Records
• 2019-05-21 Sold (MLS) $277,573 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-04-04 Listed $275,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-31 Sold (Public Records) $208,500 Public Records
• 2017-03-31 Sold (MLS) $208,500 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-03-02 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-01-17 Price Changed $210,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-27 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-27 Price Changed $215,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-11-08 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-18 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-10-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-20 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-09-13 Price Changed $212,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-08-19 Price Changed $215,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-07-22 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-28 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-10 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-06-08 Listed $230,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Sold (MLS) $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-23 Sold (MLS) $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-14 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-07-11 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-10 Contingent — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-03 Price Changed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-25 Listed $155,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-10-06 Listed $140,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1993-08-05 Sold (Public Records) $11,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,721 · +0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.