1159 W Curlew Pl · Tarpon Springs, FL 34689

$550,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,354 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 12 Days on market

Built 2000 10,424 sqft lot Est $612k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.1/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic country style home. Huge great room with gas fireplace. Gourmet kitchen with breakfast nook. Neutral colors throughout, ceramic tile, lots of windows and doors. House is very light and bright. Great paved backyard with spa. Top quality construction. Don't miss this home! Great opportunity!

Key facts

• Marble countertops
• Open floorplan
• Dining area

Tags

• OPEN FLOORPLAN
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• MARBLE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• EAT-IN KITCHEN
• DINING AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Unfurnished; Living area approximately 2,354 (public records); Total building area approximately 3,326 (public records)
• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available; Cable available; Electricity connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single family residence; One story; Faces south; Homestead exempt
• Construction: Block construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built on 0.24 acre lot (approx. 87 x 120)
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porch; Front porch; Rear porch; Outdoor kitchen; Private mailbox; Irrigation system; Trees and landscaping; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Stone counters; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Bamboo; Ceramic tile; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; High ceilings; Living room / dining room combo; Open floorplan; Stone counters; Walk-in closets
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer; Dryer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-35 ($-417/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $544k (1.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $418k (24.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $418k (24.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Tarpon Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#502 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A, schools A-; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pinellas (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #31 of 73 in FL (top 42%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 399 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,676 units permitted in Pinellas County in 2024 (1,422 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,175/mo this rent would consume 67% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 721% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pinellas County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 12 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $234k; list at $550k implies a 135% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $417,512 (24.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.22%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.27%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $612,040
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1120 Lancer Ln	0.12mi	4/3.0	2,364 (+0%)	10mo	$615,000	$260	84
1113 Carlton Rd	0.09mi	4/3.0	2,537 (+8%)	13mo	$615,000	$242	70
328 Liam Ave	0.65mi	4/3.0	2,334 (-1%)	2mo	$565,000	$242	64
460 Denise St	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,157 (-8%)	0mo	$600,000	$278	63
1848 Briland St	0.47mi	4/2.5	2,134 (-9%)	5mo	$535,000	$251	54
723 Waterside Ct	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,197 (-7%)	2mo	$730,000	$332	54
1117 S Florida Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,444 (+4%)	10mo	$635,000	$260	51
1072 Mainsail Dr	0.31mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,057 (-13%)	13mo	$585,000	$284	43
979 Ridgewood Ter	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,646 (+12%)	2mo	$715,000	$270	41
405 Driftwood Dr E	0.73mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,073 (-12%)	2mo	$800,000	$386	37
1222 Starboard Ky	0.59mi	4/3.0	2,007 (-15%)	12mo	$514,000	$256	36
731 Waterside Ct	0.60mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,048 (-13%)	5mo	$487,500	$238	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-103,799
• Equity at exit: $82,007

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.08×
• Total profit: $-141,438
• Equity at exit: $47,554

Cash invested: $154,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34689

• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 399
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$220 /mo · $2,636/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$877
• Net cashflow: $-35

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,219

Max offer price $543,855

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,500
• Closing costs: $16,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
14 Mariner Dr Tarpon Springs, FL	3.0	3.0	2800	$3,500	$1.25	24d	1	0.60mi
4857 Hummingbird Trl Palm Harbor, FL	3.0	2.5	2152	$4,000	$1.86	16d	1	0.75mi
1417 Poinsettia Ave Unit 1244469P Tarpon Springs, FL	4.0	3.0	2098	$6,739	$3.21	7d	1	1.27mi
4 W Orange St Tarpon Springs, FL	5.0	3.0	2055	$4,999	$2.43	4d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $550,000 Active 12 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $550,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $550,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $550,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $550,000 Active 7 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $550,000 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $550,000 Active 2 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 699-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $550,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,636 · $220/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,565 · $380/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,929/yr (+$161/mo · 73.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 53% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $50,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,809
• − Property taxes: −$2,636
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,008
• − Management: −$4,008
• − Depreciation: −$16,000
• Taxable loss: −$10,110
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,426
• After-tax cash flow: $2,009/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pinellas
• NCES district ID: 1201560
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $46,270
• Composite: 43.27/100
• National rank: #3046
• State rank: #31 of 73 in FL

Livability — Tarpon Springs

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #502
• US rank: #9244

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tarpon Springs, FL
• County: Pinellas County · 939,478 people
• City population: 27,324
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 27,324
• Household income: $74,854
• Rent vs Own: 18.5% rent · 81.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Pinellas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,027,532 people
• By 2030: 1,063,586 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 1,125,020 · +9.5%
• By 2050: 1,168,637 · +13.7%
• By 2075: 1,265,188 · +23.1%
• By 2100: 1,260,357 · +22.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 7% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinellas

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.2) · D 46.9% · R 52.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.5pp toward R · 2008: 8.3pp · 2024: -5.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.2 2020: D+0.2 2016: R+1.1 2012: D+5.6 2008: D+8.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.96%
• Current HPI: 303.7434
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.16%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+175.1% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $550,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $234,000 Public Records
• 2008-11-13 Sold (MLS) $234,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-04-23 Listed $260,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-07-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-23 Listed $440,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-08-03 Sold (Public Records) $280,000 Public Records
• 2004-08-01 Sold (MLS) $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-10 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-04-28 Listed $294,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-02-16 Sold (Public Records) $199,900 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,636 · +6.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.