10406 Moon Meadow Ln · Tyler, TX 75708

$57,750

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 45 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition $595/mo HOA · 47% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Set in a quiet, laid-back community, this home offers a peaceful retreat without sacrificing convenience. Enjoy the calm, open surroundings while still being just minutes from everyday essentials-perfect for relaxing, recharging, and embracing a more comfortable pace of life. Inside, this well-designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath home combines space and functionality with a smart split-bedroom layout that provides added privacy. The open-concept living area flows seamlessly into a modern kitchen featuring a central island with bar seating-ideal for both everyday living and entertaining. The private primary suite is thoughtfully positioned on one side of the home, creating a quiet escape, while two ad

Key facts

• Central island
• Modern kitchen
• Built 2026

Tags

• SMART SPLIT-BEDROOM LAYOUT
• OPEN-CONCEPT LIVING AREA
• MODERN KITCHEN
• CENTRAL ISLAND
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area approximately 1,152; Address: 10406 Moon Meadow Ln, Tyler TX 75708
• Financial info: List price 57,750
• HOA & community: Association fee of 595

Exterior

• Utilities: Electric heating (forced air); Central air conditioning
• Home design: Single-family plan named The Hodges; Spec home

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $0 ($0/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $58k (0.0% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $56k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.6% in Tyler — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#147 in TX, #4,181 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, schools D+, crime D+.
• Winona ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #539 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 67 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 595 units permitted in Smith County in 2024 (45 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($400 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (5.0% local appreciation)).
• Smith County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (5.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($56k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 47% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 54% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $56,017 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.29%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.00%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 3.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

4.96% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $13,576
• Equity at exit: $32,601

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.59×
• Total profit: $41,845
• Equity at exit: $56,162

Cash invested: $16,170 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75708

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 67
• Price-to-rent: 3.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,258 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$303
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $866/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$595
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $-0

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,258

Max offer price $57,746

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,438
• Closing costs: $1,732
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10480 Sunny Meadows Blvd Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1184	$1,228	$1.04	13d	2	0.15mi
10230 Peterson Rd Tyler, TX	3.0	2.0	1232	$1,350	$1.10	13d	1	0.58mi
11300 US Highway 271 Tyler, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0	1360	$1,299	$0.96	43d	1	0.63mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $595 · $7,140/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $57,750 Active 45 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $57,750 Active 44 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $57,750 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $57,750 Active 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $57,750 Active 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $57,750 Active 39 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $57,750 Active 38 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $57,750 Active 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $57,750 Active 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $57,750 Active 34 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $57,750 Active 33 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $57,750 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $57,750 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $57,750 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $57,750 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-06
    listed $57,750 Active 835-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 54% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,235
• − Property taxes: −$866
• − Insurance: −$289
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,208
• − Management: −$1,208
• − HOA: −$7,140
• − Depreciation: −$1,680
• Taxable loss: −$526
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$126
• After-tax cash flow: $126/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained, modern manufactured home in a quiet community offers a good investment opportunity with minimal repairs and updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants.
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can increase the home's appeal to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase convenience and appeal to both buyers and tenants. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, attracting more buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winona ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846230
• Math proficiency: 32% ▲ 2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,761
• Composite: 28.98/100
• National rank: #6624
• State rank: #539 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tyler

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #147
• US rank: #4181

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 127,842
• Population (ZIP): 10,001

Population outlook (Smith County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,890 people
• By 2030: 261,665 · +5.1%
• By 2040: 286,114 · +15.0%
• By 2050: 308,006 · +23.8%
• By 2075: 354,171 · +42.3%
• By 2100: 372,828 · +49.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 51% White 39% Two or more races 9% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 49%
• Common ancestry: Danish 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 62% English-only · Spanish 37% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smith

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: -39.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+39.4 2016: R+43.9 2012: R+46.9 2008: R+39.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.96%
• Current HPI: 216.4494
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B