40744 N Noble Hawk Ct · Anthem, AZ 85086

$1

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,898 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 26 Days on market

Built 2003 Good condition 5,750 sqft lot $553/mo HOA · 17% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.5/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The list price is not indicative of seller's final reserve amount. This property is part of an online bidding event. Inspections of this property and contact with occupants are strictly prohibited. Property is sold ''as is'' and no for sale sign allowed.

Key facts

• 5,750 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association fees include grounds and street maintenance
• HOA & community: HOA with quarterly and monthly fees (association maintains grounds and streets); No visible trucks/trailers/RVs/boats allowed; Community amenities include gated & guarded entry, pool, community spa (heated), golf, pickleball courts, tennis courts, playground, biking/walking paths, and fitness center

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with direct access; Garage door opener; Extended-length garage; Attached garage cabinets; 2 covered parking spaces (2-car garage)
• Security: Fire sprinkler system; Guarded entry / security guard
• Utilities: Private sewer; Private water company
• Home design: Single-family residence; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Built with stucco and wood frame; Tile roof; Painted exterior
• Exterior features: Stucco and painted wood-frame construction; Tile roof; Block and wrought-iron fencing; Sprinklers front and rear with auto timers; Desert front and back landscaping; On golf course; Cul-de-sac lot; Private maintained road; Mountain views

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen island; Pantry; Breakfast bar; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; Breakfast bar; No interior steps; Kitchen island; Pantry; Primary suite with full bath; Separate shower and tub; Solar screens on windows; Dual-pane windows; Hard/low nap floors
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

🔨 Auction listing. The $1 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $521,950 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $1. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-19k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $1).
• Cap rate 2.7% vs local median 3.7% in Anthem — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#98 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Deer Valley Unified District (4246) (urban): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #33 of 249 in AZ (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Gavilan Peak School (math 54% / reading 59%, grade C+, #191 of 1,109 statewide, top 18%, 565 students, 13% FRL); Boulder Creek High School (math 45% / reading 48%, grade D-, #55 of 381 statewide, top 14%, 2,375 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.6%/yr); 381 active listings in the ZIP; 33 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($122k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($0) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 782925.0% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.87%
• DSCR: 0.43
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $521,950
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1788 W Dion Dr	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,970 (+4%)	2mo	$688,000	$349	78
1870 W Dion Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	2,080 (+10%)	2mo	$692,000	$333	72
1704 W Dion Dr	0.36mi	3/3.0	2,041 (+8%)	1mo	$600,000	$294	70
1821 W Kuralt Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,965 (+4%)	2mo	$525,000	$267	57
41017 N Prestancia Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,082 (+10%)	1mo	$649,999	$312	50
2335 W Muirfield Dr	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (+7%)	1mo	$499,500	$245	46
2030 W Clearview Trl	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,143 (+13%)	2mo	$492,500	$230	42
2413 W Lewis And Clark Trl	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-14%)	1mo	$387,030	$236	41
41333 N Belfair Way	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,616 (-15%)	2mo	$472,500	$292	41
2517 W Morse Dr	0.75mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,120 (+12%)	0mo	$576,000	$272	40
2452 W Warren Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,638 (-14%)	2mo	$450,500	$275	37
2419 W Warren Dr	0.71mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,168 (+14%)	1mo	$452,000	$208	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.62% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -42.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.29×
• Total profit: $-188,499
• Equity at exit: $77,824

10-year hold

• IRR: -82.7%
• Equity multiple: -1.11×
• Total profit: $-309,029
• Equity at exit: $45,129

Cash invested: $146,146 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85086

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 381

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,282 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,737
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$652 /mo · $7,829/yr
• Insurance: −$217
• HOA: −$553
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$689
• Net cashflow: $-1,567

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,266

Max offer price $295,178

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $130,488
• Closing costs: $15,658
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 33 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1891 W Dion Dr Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1510	$3,500	$2.32	43d	1	0.10mi
1916 W Spirit Ct Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1759	$4,000	$2.27	43d	1	0.11mi
1788 W Dion Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1912	$3,300	$1.73	24d	1	0.23mi
1776 W Owens Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$3,500	$2.41	43d	1	0.37mi
1653 W Ainsworth Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.5	2391	$4,000	$1.67	24d	1	0.38mi
1726 W Medinah Ct Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1760	$4,700	$2.67	43d	1	0.42mi
40309 N Bell Meadow Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1490	$3,500	$2.35	20d	1	0.43mi
40838 N Prestancia Ct Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2082	$4,500	$2.16	43d	1	0.44mi
1702 W Owens Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1264	$2,400	$1.90	18d	1	0.44mi
40130 N Thunder Hills Ct Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,200	$1.69	5d	1	0.46mi
40291 N La Cantera Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1454	$2,195	$1.51	20d	1	0.46mi
1537 W Spirit Dr Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.5	2544	$4,450	$1.75	43d	1	0.49mi
41112 N Prestancia Dr Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	2082	$5,000	$2.40	43d	1	0.51mi
41520 N River Bend Ct Phoenix, AZ	2.0	2.0	1728	$3,850	$2.23	24d	1	0.51mi
1836 W Kuralt Dr Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1432	$2,199	$1.54	12d	1	0.60mi
40936 N Citrus Canyon Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1431	$2,100	$1.47	43d	1	0.66mi
2106 W Hemingway Ct Phoenix, AZ	4.0	3.0	2120	$2,800	$1.32	43d	1	0.68mi
39807 N Belfair Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	2136	$8,000	$3.75	2d	1	0.69mi
2517 W Memorial Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	4.0	1827	$2,150	$1.18	3d	1	0.70mi
2517 W Memorial Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,150	$1.18	7d	1	0.70mi
39560 N Prairie Ln Anthem, AZ	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,445	$1.34	4d	1	0.79mi
2023 W Shackleton Dr Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.5	2575	$2,670	$1.04	12d	1	0.80mi
2462 W Turtle Hill Dr Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1400	$5,000	$3.57	43d	1	0.81mi
2423 W Shadow Glen Ct Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1344	$3,990	$2.97	43d	1	0.84mi
2499 W Lewis and Clark Trl Phoenix, AZ	4.0	2.0	1827	$2,340	$1.28	24d	1	0.85mi
2501 W Myopia Dr Unit 1546125P Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1485	$2,419	$1.63	15d	1	0.89mi
41831 N Mill Creek Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1741	$2,400	$1.38	21d	1	0.95mi
2579 W Lewis and Clark Trl Phoenix, AZ	3.0	2.0	1230	$2,450	$1.99	24d	1	0.95mi
41708 N Cross Timbers Trl Unit 1545666P Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	2249	$2,993	$1.33	16d	1	1.08mi
39746 N Cross Timbers Way Anthem, AZ	3.0	2.0	1230	$2,050	$1.67	20d	1	1.19mi
2902 W Haley Dr Anthem, AZ	4.0	3.0	2347	$3,200	$1.36	3d	1	1.22mi
41410 N Fairgreen Way Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	1344	$4,000	$2.98	43d	1	1.37mi
41418 N Clear Crossing Rd Anthem, AZ	2.0	2.0	2039	$3,250	$1.59	43d	1	1.44mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $553 · $6,636/yr

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $1 Pending 26 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1 Active 18 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1 Active 17 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1 Active 16 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $1 Active 13 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1 Active 12 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1 Active 9 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $1 Active
16. 2025-12-09
    historical
17. 2025-09-08
    listed $650,000 Active
18. 2025-07-22
    historical
19. 2025-05-08
    listed $660,000 Active
20. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $605,000
21. 2023-01-31
    soldstatus $605,000 Closed
22. 2022-12-31
    status Pending
23. 2022-12-22
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
24. 2022-11-26
    price $619,000
25. 2022-11-26
    status Active
26. 2022-11-19
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
27. 2022-08-26
    listed $629,900 Active
28. 2015-09-15
    soldstatus $310,000 Closed
29. 2015-09-15
    soldstatus $310,000
30. 2015-08-15
    status Pending
31. 2015-08-07
    price $329,900
32. 2015-07-21
    price $339,900
33. 2015-07-06
    listed $349,900 Active
34. 2011-06-13
    soldstatus $257,000 Closed
35. 2011-06-13
    soldstatus $257,000
36. 2011-05-10
    status Pending
37. 2011-05-06
    listed $265,000 Active
38. 2004-06-10
    soldstatus $329,800
39. 2004-05-17
    soldstatus $329,800
40. 2004-04-05
    historical
41. 2004-03-24
    listed $329,800

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥110°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,386
• − Mortgage interest: −$29,237
• − Property taxes: −$7,829
• − Insurance: −$2,610
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,151
• − Management: −$3,151
• − HOA: −$6,636
• − Depreciation: −$15,184
• Taxable loss: −$28,412
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,819
• After-tax cash flow: $-11,987/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This single-family home is in good condition with a well-maintained exterior and interior. It has potential for minor cosmetic improvements to enhance its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants.
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior more inviting and appealing to potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Interior touch-ups — Fresh paint and minor touch-ups can make the interior more inviting and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Deer Valley Unified District (4246)
• NCES district ID: 0407750
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $72,516
• Composite: 47.0/100
• National rank: #2346
• State rank: #33 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Anthem

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #14158

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Anthem, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 43,270
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 43,270
• Household income: $121,676
• Rent vs Own: 14.8% rent · 85.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 724.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Romanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 4% Vietnamese 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -117.19%
• Current HPI: 305.1539
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.62%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+97.1% since first listed

27 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $1 ARMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-09-08 Listed $650,000 ARMLS
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed $660,000 ARMLS
• 2023-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $605,000 Public Records
• 2023-01-31 Sold (MLS) $605,000 ARMLS
• 2022-12-31 Pending — ARMLS
• 2022-12-22 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-11-26 Price Changed $619,000 ARMLS
• 2022-11-26 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2022-11-19 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2022-08-26 Listed $629,900 ARMLS
• 2015-09-15 Sold (Public Records) $310,000 Public Records
• 2015-09-15 Sold (MLS) $310,000 ARMLS
• 2015-08-15 Pending — ARMLS
• 2015-08-07 Price Changed $329,900 ARMLS
• 2015-07-21 Price Changed $339,900 ARMLS
• 2015-07-06 Listed $349,900 ARMLS
• 2011-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $257,000 Public Records
• 2011-06-13 Sold (MLS) $257,000 ARMLS
• 2011-05-10 Pending — ARMLS
• 2011-05-06 Listed $265,000 ARMLS
• 2004-06-10 Sold (Public Records) $329,800 Public Records
• 2004-05-17 Sold (MLS) $329,800 ARMLS
• 2004-04-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2004-03-24 Listed $329,800 ARMLS

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,842 · -10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.