9791 Old Liberty Rd · Liberty, NC 27298

$199,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1960 0.75 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cute brick ranch nestled in Liberty with endless potential! This 3 bedroom 1 bath home offers a full unfinished basement, providing plenty of space for storage, a workshop, or future expansion. An additional bathroom is located downstairs and just needs finishing touches to become a 2nd bathroom. Situated in a beautiful setting, this home is FULL of opportunity and ready for your personal touch!

Key facts

• Brick ranch
• 0.75 acre lot
• Built 1960

Tags

• BRICK RANCH
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT
• ADDITIONAL BATHROOM DOWNSTAIRS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No homeowners association

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Private water source; Septic tank
• Home design: Residential stick/site-built house; One story; Built in 1960; Existing structure; Two fireplaces (basement and den)
• Construction: Brick construction
• Exterior features: Garden; Partially cleared lot; Private maintained road

Interior

• Kitchen: Range
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump heating; Electric heating; Central air conditioning; Electric water heater
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Attic access only; Has primary bedroom on the main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer connection; Laundry in basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $181k (9.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $181k (9.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.1% in Liberty — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#56 in NC, #4,472 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Randolph County School System (rural): math 43% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #94 of 178 in NC (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Liberty Elementary School (math 42% / reading 37%, grade F, #694 of 1,410 statewide, top 53%, 415 students, 77% FRL); Northeastern Randolph Middle School (math 36% / reading 39%, grade F, #256 of 475 statewide, top 55%, 481 students, 61% FRL); Providence Grove High School (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #311 of 535 statewide, top 60%, 653 students, 51% FRL).
• Market conditions: 80 active listings in the ZIP; 789 units permitted in Randolph County in 2024 (168 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Randolph County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($197k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 22% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $181,429 (9.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.89%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-17,951
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $2,739
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27298

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 80
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,814 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $884/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$381
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,526

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $341	-5% $285	+0% $228	+5% $171	+10% $115
Rent	-10% $85	-5% $156	+0% $228	+5% $300	+10% $371
Rate	-1.0pp $329	-0.5pp $279	base $228	+0.5pp $176	+1.0pp $124

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-31
   status $199,900 Pending 23 DOM
2. 2026-05-09
   historical Due Diligence Period
3. 2026-05-05
   listed $199,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $884 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,639 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$755/yr (+$63/mo · 85.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 5/10 Major 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,771
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$884
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,742
• − Management: −$1,742
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$609
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$146
• After-tax cash flow: $2,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Randolph County School System
• NCES district ID: 3703780
• Math proficiency: 43% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,490
• Composite: 36.37/100
• National rank: #4686
• State rank: #94 of 178 in NC

Livability — Liberty

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #56
• US rank: #4472

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 10,507

Population outlook (Randolph County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 142,640 people
• By 2030: 140,911 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 135,692 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 128,575 · -9.9%
• By 2075: 111,507 · -21.8%
• By 2100: 93,376 · -34.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Randolph

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+57.2) · D 21.0% · R 78.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.0pp toward R · 2008: -42.3pp · 2024: -57.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+57.2 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+56.7 2012: R+50.2 2008: R+42.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -37.90%
• Current HPI: 257.7834
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Contingent — Triad MLS
• 2026-05-05 Listed $199,900 Triad MLS

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $884 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.