2824 W Chestnut St · Springfield, MO 65803

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 72 Days on market

Built 1948 0.69 ac lot $88/sqft · 38% below area Est $154k · 38% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Loads of potential in this 3 bed 2 bath property on a good sized lot! The current tenants are month to month so this property would work for an investor or owner occupant. This home does need work, but with could be a total gem with some polishing!

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $95,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$154,183) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.6% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bissett Elem. (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 215 students, 86% FRL); Westport Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #344 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 433 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools average 86% FRL vs 46% district-wide (40 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 39% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Springfield R-XII average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 401 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 72 days — a 6% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $89,300 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 72 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $154,183
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -38.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3036 W Water St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-3%)	1mo	$135,000	$130	73
928 N Glenn Ave	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,160 (+8%)	2mo	$155,000	$134	65
1208 N Fulbright Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+4%)	0mo	$56,500	$51	65
1020 N Ethyl Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	989 (-8%)	2mo	$179,900	$182	61
735 N Brown Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+12%)	1mo	$115,000	$95	58
1330 N Fulbright Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-6%)	1mo	$115,000	$114	54
939 N Brown Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+10%)	1mo	$159,900	$134	51
1113 N Clifton Ave	0.50mi	2/2.0 (-1)	972 (-10%)	2mo	$165,000	$170	49
3215 W Bergman St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,167 (+8%)	1mo	$199,900	$171	49
2200 W Phelps St	0.69mi	3/1.0	936 (-13%)	0mo	$135,900	$145	46
2326 W Nichols St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	945 (-12%)	1mo	$150,000	$159	45
1027 Warren Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+12%)	2mo	$180,000	$149	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,349
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $37,651
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 65803

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 401
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $346	+0% $319	+5% $292	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $274	+0% $319	+5% $364	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $343	base $319	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	45d	1	0.26mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	45d	1	0.46mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	25d	1	0.49mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	22d	1	0.51mi
2602 W College St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1350	$995	$0.74	15d	1	0.52mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	22d	1	0.56mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	15d	1	0.56mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,295	$1.15	22d	1	0.60mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	45d	1	0.70mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	45d	1	0.71mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,295	$1.03	25d	1	0.81mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	45d	1	0.84mi
3031 W Pacific St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	22d	1	1.05mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	15d	1	1.09mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	15d	1	1.19mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,585	$1.13	15d	1	1.26mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	25d	1	1.28mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	15d	1	1.33mi
1152 S Hillcrest Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,300	$1.05	45d	1	1.45mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	25d	1	1.45mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $95,000 Active 66 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 61 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 60 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $105,000 Active 59 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 54 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $105,000 Active 53 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $105,000 Active 52 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $105,000 Active 51 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $105,000 Active 50 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    listed $120,000 Active 248-char remark

    Show marketing remark (248 chars)

    Loads of potential in this 3 bed 2 bath property on a good sized lot! The current tenants are month to month so this property would work for an investor or owner occupant. This home does need work, but with could be a total gem with some polishing!

17. 2022-02-25
    price $1,095
18. 2021-07-23
    soldstatus
19. 2021-07-22
    soldstatus 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Investor alert! A BRRR type property. Great investment opportunity with nearly 3/4 acre lot! 3 bedroom, 1 bath, just over 1000 square feet. Gorgeous fenced yard with tall privacy fence & mature trees. Lots of possibility to make an excellent return on your investment. $2K worth of windows are on order & included. Newer roof! (Under 5 years)The interior is partially gutted, in the beginning stages of remodel. There's potential to add a second bathroom off of the master. Similar 3/1, a couple doors down, sold recently in the $140's! Property being sold as is.

20. 2021-06-01
    listed $66,000 575-char remark

    Show marketing remark (575 chars)

    Investor alert! A BRRR type property. Great investment opportunity with nearly 3/4 acre lot! 3 bedroom, 1 bath, just over 1000 square feet. Gorgeous fenced yard with tall privacy fence & mature trees. Lots of possibility to make an excellent return on your investment. $2K worth of windows are on order & included. Newer roof! (Under 5 years)The interior is partially gutted, in the beginning stages of remodel. There's potential to add a second bathroom off of the master. Similar 3/1, a couple doors down, sold recently in the $140's! Property being sold as is.

21. 2018-11-16
    soldstatus
22. 2018-08-17
    listed $42,500
23. 2015-03-25
    soldstatus
24. 2014-11-21
    listed $31,900
25. 2014-02-24
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$578
• After-tax cash flow: $3,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 244,327 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 42,882
• Household income: $50,572
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1305.0

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.08%
• Current HPI: 205.0439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+276.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $120,000 SOMO
• 2022-02-25 Price Changed $1,095 RENT.
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-22 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2021-06-01 Listed $66,000 SOMO
• 2018-11-16 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-08-17 Listed $42,500 SOMO
• 2015-03-25 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-11-21 Listed $31,900 SOMO
• 2014-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.