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2824 W Chestnut St
B Composite 74.29
Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

  • Cash flow +29.2/30.0
  • ARV discount +15.0/15.0
  • DSCR +10.0/10.0
  • 1% rule +7.2/10.0
  • Livability +3.8/5.0
  • Rent growth +3.6/5.0
  • Schools +3.4/10.0
  • Condition / age +2.2/5.0
  • Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$95,000

2824 W Chestnut St · Springfield, MO 65803
3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 166 Days on market
Built 1948 Fair condition 0.69 ac lot 1-car garage $88/sqft · 40% below area Est $157k · 40% under

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Investor alert! A BRRR type property. Great investment opportunity with nearly 3/4 acre lot! 3 bedroom, 1 bath, just over 1000 square feet. Gorgeous fenced yard with tall privacy fence & mature trees. Lots of possibility to make an excellent return on your investment. $2K worth of windows are on order & included. Newer roof! (Under 5 years)The interior is partially gutted, in the beginning stages of remodel. There's potential to add a second bathroom off of the master. Similar 3/1, a couple doors down, sold recently in the $140's! Property being sold as is.

Key facts

  • 0.69 acre lot
  • Garage
  • Built 1948

Neighborhood map

Property Rental comp Retail Costco Walmart Transit Schools Stadiums Fortune 500 · Circle radius: 6.0 mi
Loading POIs…

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

  • This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

  • At list price, monthly cash flow is $331 ($4k/yr) — positive.
  • The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
  • Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
  • Recommended offer: $84k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
  • Cap rate 10.5% vs local median 4.5% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

  • Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
  • Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
  • Zoned schools: Bissett Elem. (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 215 students, 86% FRL); Westport Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #344 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 433 students, 87% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 46% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
  • Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 593 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 109d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 63% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

  • Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
  • Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
  • At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

  • It's been on market 166 days — a 12% lower offer ($84k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
  • 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

  • Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
  • Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Recommended offer $83,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

  1. It's been on market 166 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
  2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
  3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
  4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
  5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
  6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
  7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
  8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
  9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

1% rule
1.22%
Cap rate
10.47%
Cash-on-cash
14.94%
DSCR
1.66
GRM
6.9

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp)
$157,376
List price
$95,000
Delta
-39.64%
Verdict
UNDERPRICED
Comps
20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi
Address Dist Beds/Ba Sqft Sold Price $/sf Match
1037 N Fulbright Ave 0.40mi 3/1.0 1,114 (+3%) 3mo $155,000 $139 73
1120 N Fulbright Ave 0.45mi 2/1.0 (-1) 1,080 (+0%) 2mo $99,900 $93 72
821 N Forest Ave 0.54mi 3/1.0 1,031 (-4%) 1mo $159,900 $155 67
3119 W Water St 0.44mi 2/1.0 (-1) 1,041 (-3%) 3mo $174,900 $168 67
222 N Westport Ave 0.52mi 3/2.0 1,020 (-5%) 1mo $180,000 $176 62
3208 W Scott St 0.56mi 3/2.0 1,169 (+8%) 0mo $205,000 $175 56
1031 N Forest Ave 0.60mi 3/1.0 976 (-9%) 1mo $159,900 $164 55
629 N Warren Ave 0.59mi 3/1.0 1,192 (+11%) 2mo $145,000 $122 53
2643 W Walnut St 0.54mi 3/2.0 1,178 (+9%) 3mo $155,000 $132 53
630 N Forest Ave 0.53mi 2/1.0 (-1) 1,214 (+13%) 1mo $169,900 $140 48
3355 W Nichols St 0.75mi 3/2.0 1,158 (+8%) 1mo $200,000 $173 48
1306 N Brown Ave 0.67mi 3/2.0 1,220 (+13%) 1mo $169,000 $139 42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold
IRR
6.8%
Equity multiple
1.27×
Total profit
$7,122
Equity at exit
$14,165
10-year hold
IRR
17.1%
Equity multiple
2.48×
Total profit
$39,374
Equity at exit
$8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE)
81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Missouri
81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
County
— inherits STATE
City
— inherits STATE
Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.
Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now
41 active · 53 under contract
Months of supply
3.8 mo (26%/mo absorbed)
Median asking
$135,000 ($135/sqft)
Median days on market
53 d
This list price
15% of active listings are priced below it
ARV vs active asking
+8.0% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65803

Home prices YoY
-29.8%
Rents YoY
4.2%
Active inventory
593
Price-to-rent
6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent
$1,155 high interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I)
$498
Tax from tax record
$43 /mo · $521/yr
Insurance
$40
HOA
$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
$242
Net cashflow
$331

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736
Max offer price $95,000
Occupancy floor 66%

Sensitivity live

Price -10% $385 -5% $358 +0% $331 +5% $304 +10% $277
Rent -10% $240 -5% $285 +0% $331 +5% $377 +10% $422
Rate -1.0pp $379 -0.5pp $355 base $331 +0.5pp $306 +1.0pp $281

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment
$23,750
Closing costs
$2,850
Reserves months
Total cash needed

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested
Monthly P&I
Monthly cashflow
DSCR
Eligible?

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 30 comps

AddressBedsBaths SqftRent$/sqft DOM Units Dist
601 N Fulbright Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 2.0 936 $1,300 $1.39 6d 1 0.18mi
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 780 $1,100 $1.41 139d 1 0.26mi
2543 W Water St Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 1284 $1,195 $0.93 6d 1 0.45mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 912 $950 $1.04 139d 1 0.46mi
730 N West Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 904 $1,095 $1.21 6d 1 0.48mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 900 $995 $1.11 119d 1 0.49mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 945 $995 $1.05 116d 1 0.51mi
2602 W College St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 1350 $995 $0.74 109d 1 0.52mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 975 $850 $0.87 116d 1 0.56mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO 2.0 2.0 1153 $628 $0.54 109d 1 0.56mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO 3.0 2.0 1128 $1,295 $1.15 116d 1 0.60mi
2719 W Mount Vernon St Unit 1 Springfield, MO 2.0 2.0 1060 $795 $0.75 6d 1 0.69mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO 3.0 2.0 1059 $1,350 $1.27 139d 1 0.70mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 1034 $975 $0.94 139d 1 0.71mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 1260 $1,295 $1.03 119d 1 0.81mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 1008 $1,175 $1.17 139d 1 0.84mi
822 N Marion Ave Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 1026 $875 $0.85 6d 1 0.87mi
214 N Marion Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 1.5 1110 $1,150 $1.04 6d 1 0.90mi
3031 W Pacific St Springfield, MO 3.0 1.5 1008 $1,295 $1.28 116d 1 1.05mi
1816 W Scott St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 854 $900 $1.05 6d 1 1.07mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 736 $1,195 $1.62 109d 1 1.09mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 960 $1,095 $1.14 109d 1 1.19mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 1.0 1400 $1,585 $1.13 109d 1 1.26mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO 2.0 2.0 1010 $950 $0.94 119d 1 1.28mi
2625 W Delmar St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 822 $1,104 $1.34 1d 1 1.32mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO 2.0 2.0 1010 $945 $0.94 1d 1 1.33mi
1410 W Nichols St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 884 $875 $0.99 3d 1 1.38mi
1400 W Brower St Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 808 $1,095 $1.36 6d 1 1.38mi
1152 S Hillcrest Ave Springfield, MO 3.0 1.5 1240 $1,300 $1.05 139d 1 1.45mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO 2.0 1.0 885 $865 $0.98 119d 1 1.45mi

Property features AI

Exterior

Parking
1-car garage
Utilities
Public waterPublic sewer
Home design
Single-family residenceOne story
Construction
Asphalt roof
Exterior features
Covered patio/porchProperty has a viewLot approximately 0.69 acres

Interior

Kitchen
Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenDishwasherRefrigerator
Bathrooms
2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling
Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
Interior features
DishwasherRefrigeratorElectric ovenFree-standing electric ovenElectric water heater
Laundry & utility
Laundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

  1. 2026-09-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 166 DOM
  2. 2026-09-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 165 DOM
  3. 2026-09-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 164 DOM
  4. 2026-09-20
    days on market $95,000 Active 163 DOM
  5. 2026-09-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 161 DOM
  6. 2026-09-17
    days on market $95,000 Active 160 DOM
  7. 2026-09-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 159 DOM
  8. 2026-09-15
    days on market $95,000 Active 158 DOM
  9. 2026-09-14
    days on market $95,000 Active 157 DOM
  10. 2026-09-13
    days on market $95,000 Active 156 DOM
  11. 2026-09-12
    days on market $95,000 Active 155 DOM
  12. 2026-09-11
    days on market $95,000 Active 154 DOM
  13. 2026-09-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 148 DOM
  14. 2026-09-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 147 DOM
  15. 2026-09-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 146 DOM
  16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 143 DOM
  17. 2026-08-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 142 DOM
  18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $95,000 Active 141 DOM
  19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 140 DOM
  20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 139 DOM
  21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 137 DOM
  22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $95,000 Active 136 DOM
  23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 135 DOM
  24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 134 DOM
  25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 133 DOM
  26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $95,000 Active 132 DOM
  27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $95,000 Active 131 DOM
  28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 130 DOM
  29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $95,000 Active 129 DOM
  30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 128 DOM
  31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $95,000 Active 127 DOM
  32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $95,000 Active 126 DOM
  33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $95,000 Active 125 DOM
  34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $95,000 Active 124 DOM
  35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $95,000 Active 123 DOM
  36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $95,000 Active 122 DOM
  37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 121 DOM
  38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 120 DOM
  39. 2026-08-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
  40. 2026-08-06
    days on market $95,000 Active 118 DOM
  41. 2026-08-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 117 DOM
  42. 2026-08-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
  43. 2026-08-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 115 DOM
  44. 2026-07-31
    days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
  45. 2026-07-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
  46. 2026-07-29
    days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
  47. 2026-07-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
  48. 2026-07-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
  49. 2026-07-24
    days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
  50. 2026-07-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

Current annual tax
$521 · $43/mo
Projected year-2 tax
$922 · $77/mo
Expected delta
+$401/yr (+$33/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

  • 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
  • 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
  • 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
  • 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
  • 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

Loading nearby amenities…

Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income
$13,857
− Mortgage interest
−$5,321
− Property taxes
−$521
− Insurance
−$475
− Repairs & maintenance
−$1,109
− Management
−$1,109
− Depreciation
−$2,764
Taxable income
$2,559
combined federal + state — saved on this device
Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
−$614
After-tax cash flow
$3,359/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,925–$48,465 screening

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Painting the exterior and repairing the flooring and interior walls would be the highest-ROI updates.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening

  • Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
  • Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
  • Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
  • Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
  • Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

  • Moderate exterior siding — The exterior siding shows some discoloration and minor damage.
  • Major flooring — The flooring in the visible areas is in poor condition, with significant wear and tear.
  • Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint are in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

  • Resale paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers.
  • Rental repair flooring — Repairing the flooring will make the home more comfortable and appealing to renters, potentially increasing rental income.
  • Both paint interior walls — Painting the interior walls can improve the home's appearance and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters.

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bissett Elem. F MO #879/1,115 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Pipkin Middle F MO #324/391 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Central High D+ MO #92/521 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District
Springfield R-XII
NCES district ID
2928860
Math proficiency
32% ▼ -2.00%
Reading proficiency
46% ▼ -3.00%
Median HH income
$37,886
Composite
32.45/100
National rank
#5717
State rank
#174 of 324 in MO
B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Springfield

Score
75/100
State rank
#57
US rank
#4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place
Springfield, MO
County
Greene County · 319,054 people
City population
223,044
Metro
Springfield, MO
Population (ZIP)
42,882
Household income
$50,572
Rent vs Own
45.0% rent · 55.0% own
Severe rent burden
11% of renters

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025)
319,054 people
By 2030
335,135 · +5.0%
By 2040
366,186 · +14.8%
By 2050
397,431 · +24.6%
By 2075
477,035 · +49.5%
By 2100
520,828 · +63.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character
Predominantly White (82%)
Race & ethnicity
White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
Hispanic origin (detail)
Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
Common ancestry
Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
Foreign-born
3% · Canada
Languages at home
95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

2024 margin
Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
2008→2024 swing
-5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
All cycles
2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

Civics

Price history

+197.8% since first listed
12 events — show timeline
  • 2026-06-14 Price Changed $95,000 SOMO
  • 2026-05-21 Price Changed $105,000 SOMO
  • 2026-04-10 Listed $120,000 SOMO
  • 2022-02-25 Price Changed $1,095 RENT.
  • 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) Public Records
  • 2021-07-22 Sold (MLS) SOMO
  • 2021-06-01 Listed $66,000 SOMO
  • 2018-11-16 Sold (MLS) SOMO
  • 2018-08-17 Listed $42,500 SOMO
  • 2015-03-25 Sold (MLS) SOMO
  • 2014-11-21 Listed $31,900 SOMO
  • 2014-02-24 Sold (Public Records) Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

Loading sold comps…