2824 W Chestnut St · Springfield, MO 65803

$95,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,077 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 120 Days on market

Built 1948 Fair condition 0.69 ac lot 1-car garage $88/sqft · 39% below area Est $157k · 39% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.8/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor alert! A BRRR type property. Great investment opportunity with nearly 3/4 acre lot! 3 bedroom, 1 bath, just over 1000 square feet. Gorgeous fenced yard with tall privacy fence & mature trees. Lots of possibility to make an excellent return on your investment. $2K worth of windows are on order & included. Newer roof! (Under 5 years)The interior is partially gutted, in the beginning stages of remodel. There's potential to add a second bathroom off of the master. Similar 3/1, a couple doors down, sold recently in the $140's! Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• 0.69 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1948

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $319 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).
• Recommended offer: $86k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 4.5% in Springfield — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#57 in MO, #4,121 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Springfield R-XII (urban): math 32% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #174 of 324 in MO (top 54%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Bissett Elem. (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #879 of 1,115 statewide, top 81%, 215 students, 86% FRL); Westport Middle School (math 12% / reading 29%, grade F, #344 of 391 statewide, top 88%, 433 students, 87% FRL); Central High (math 42% / reading 62%, grade D+, #92 of 521 statewide, top 20%, 1,464 students, 51% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 46% district-wide (28 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 506 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 73d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,302 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $657 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Greene County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $27k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 120 days — a 9% lower offer ($86k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $86,450 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 120 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.40%
• DSCR: 1.64
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $156,785
• List price: $95,000
• Delta: -39.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1037 N Fulbright Ave	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,114 (+3%)	1mo	$155,000	$139	74
3036 W Water St	0.41mi	3/1.5	1,040 (-3%)	2mo	$135,000	$130	71
3119 W Water St	0.44mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,041 (-3%)	2mo	$174,900	$168	68
1208 N Fulbright Ave	0.51mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,116 (+4%)	2mo	$56,500	$51	64
2613 W Walnut St	0.56mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,052 (-2%)	2mo	$85,000	$81	63
735 N Brown Ave	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+12%)	2mo	$115,000	$95	56
629 N Warren Ave	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,192 (+11%)	0mo	$145,000	$122	55
2643 W Walnut St	0.54mi	3/2.0	1,178 (+9%)	1mo	$155,000	$132	54
1330 N Fulbright Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-6%)	3mo	$115,000	$114	53
939 N Brown Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+10%)	3mo	$159,900	$134	50
2200 W Phelps St	0.69mi	3/1.0	936 (-13%)	2mo	$135,900	$145	44
2326 W Nichols St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	945 (-12%)	2mo	$150,000	$159	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.24% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.24×
• Total profit: $6,349
• Equity at exit: $14,165

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $37,651
• Equity at exit: $8,214

Cash invested: $26,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 34 active · 34 under contract
• Months of supply: 3.1 mo (32%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $130,000 ($124/sqft)
• Median days on market: 62 d
• This list price: 24% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +17.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 65803

• Home prices YoY: -29.8%
• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 506
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$498
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $521/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $319

Break-even live

Break-even rent $736

Max offer price $95,000

Occupancy floor 67%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $373	-5% $346	+0% $319	+5% $292	+10% $265
Rent	-10% $229	-5% $274	+0% $319	+5% $364	+10% $409
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $343	base $319	+0.5pp $295	+1.0pp $270

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,750
• Closing costs: $2,850
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
922 N Glenn Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	780	$1,100	$1.41	93d	1	0.26mi
741 N West Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	912	$950	$1.04	93d	1	0.46mi
740 N West Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	900	$995	$1.11	72d	1	0.49mi
2854 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	945	$995	$1.05	70d	1	0.51mi
2602 W College St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1350	$995	$0.74	62d	1	0.52mi
3028 W Walnut St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	975	$850	$0.87	70d	1	0.56mi
250 N Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1153	$628	$0.54	62d	1	0.56mi
3002 W Elm St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1128	$1,295	$1.15	70d	1	0.60mi
3016 W Hovey St Springfield, MO	3.0	2.0	1059	$1,350	$1.27	93d	1	0.70mi
2541 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	1034	$975	$0.94	93d	1	0.71mi
2412 W Lincoln St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1260	$1,295	$1.03	72d	1	0.81mi
547 S Hilton Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1008	$1,175	$1.17	93d	1	0.84mi
3031 W Pacific St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1008	$1,295	$1.28	70d	1	1.05mi
1740 W Olive St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	736	$1,195	$1.62	62d	1	1.09mi
2204 W Madison St Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	960	$1,095	$1.14	62d	1	1.19mi
412 S Duke Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.0	1400	$1,585	$1.13	62d	1	1.26mi
1020 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$950	$0.94	72d	1	1.28mi
1040 S Clifton Ave Springfield, MO	2.0	2.0	1010	$945	$0.94	62d	1	1.33mi
1152 S Hillcrest Ave Springfield, MO	3.0	1.5	1240	$1,300	$1.05	93d	1	1.45mi
1406 W Calhoun St Unit B Springfield, MO	2.0	1.0	885	$865	$0.98	72d	1	1.45mi

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchProperty has a viewLot approximately 0.69 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenDishwasherRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherRefrigeratorElectric ovenFree-standing electric ovenElectric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-08-08
   days on market $95,000 Active 120 DOM
2. 2026-08-07
   days on market $95,000 Active 119 DOM
3. 2026-08-06
   days on market $95,000 Active 118 DOM
4. 2026-08-05
   days on market $95,000 Active 117 DOM
5. 2026-08-04
   days on market $95,000 Active 116 DOM
6. 2026-08-03
   days on market $95,000 Active 115 DOM
7. 2026-07-31
   days on market $95,000 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-07-30
   days on market $95,000 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-07-29
   days on market $95,000 Active 110 DOM
10. 2026-07-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 108 DOM
11. 2026-07-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-07-24
    days on market $95,000 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-07-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 104 DOM
14. 2026-07-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 103 DOM
15. 2026-07-21
    days on market $95,000 Active 102 DOM
16. 2026-07-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 99 DOM
17. 2026-07-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 97 DOM
18. 2026-07-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 96 DOM
19. 2026-07-14
    days on market $95,000 Active 95 DOM
20. 2026-07-13
    days on market $95,000 Active 94 DOM
21. 2026-07-12
    days on market $95,000 Active 93 DOM
22. 2026-07-11
    days on market $95,000 Active 92 DOM
23. 2026-07-10
    days on market $95,000 Active 91 DOM
24. 2026-07-09
    days on market $95,000 Active 90 DOM
25. 2026-07-08
    days on market $95,000 Active 89 DOM
26. 2026-07-07
    days on market $95,000 Active 88 DOM
27. 2026-07-06
    days on market $95,000 Active 87 DOM
28. 2026-07-05
    days on market $95,000 Active 86 DOM
29. 2026-07-04
    days on market $95,000 Active 85 DOM
30. 2026-07-03
    days on market $95,000 Active 84 DOM
31. 2026-07-02
    days on market $95,000 Active 83 DOM
32. 2026-07-01
    days on market $95,000 Active 82 DOM
33. 2026-06-30
    days on market $95,000 Active 81 DOM
34. 2026-06-29
    days on market $95,000 Active 80 DOM
35. 2026-06-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 79 DOM
36. 2026-06-28
    days on market $95,000 Active 78 DOM
37. 2026-06-27
    days on market $95,000 Active 77 DOM
38. 2026-06-25
    days on market $95,000 Active 75 DOM
39. 2026-06-23
    days on market $95,000 Active 73 DOM
40. 2026-06-22
    days on market $95,000 Active 72 DOM
41. 2026-06-18
    days on market $95,000 Active 69 DOM
42. 2026-06-17
    days on market $95,000 Active 68 DOM
43. 2026-06-16
    days on market $95,000 Active 67 DOM
44. 2026-06-15
    pricedays on market $95,000 Active 66 DOM
45. 2026-06-14
    days on market $105,000 Active 64 DOM
46. 2026-06-10
    days on market $105,000 Active 61 DOM
47. 2026-06-09
    days on market $105,000 Active 60 DOM
48. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 59 DOM
49. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 58 DOM
50. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 54 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $521 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $922 · $77/mo
• Expected delta: +$401/yr (+$33/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,677
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,321
• − Property taxes: −$521
• − Insurance: −$475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,094
• − Management: −$1,094
• − Depreciation: −$2,764
• Taxable income: $2,408
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$578
• After-tax cash flow: $3,253/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab Est. rehab $26,925–$48,465 screening

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance to improve its condition and increase its value. Painting the exterior and repairing the flooring and interior walls would be the highest-ROI updates.

Components & finishes AI

Roof asphalt shingle · good

Deferred maintenance Est. $2,500–$10,000 screening

• Minor Roof (roof) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Windows (windows) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Electrical (electrical) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Plumbing (plumbing) — No visible signs of damage or wear
• Minor Exterior (exterior) — No visible signs of damage or wear

Repairs flagged

• Moderate exterior siding — The exterior siding shows some discoloration and minor damage.
• Major flooring — The flooring in the visible areas is in poor condition, with significant wear and tear.
• Major interior walls/paint — The interior walls and paint are in poor condition, with visible wear and tear.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale paint exterior — Painting the exterior can improve the home's curb appeal and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Rental repair flooring — Repairing the flooring will make the home more comfortable and appealing to renters, potentially increasing rental income. ↑
• Both paint interior walls — Painting the interior walls can improve the home's appearance and make it more attractive to both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Moderate scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 34/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Bissett Elem. F MO #879/1,115 Nat'l #30,133/41,679 Middle Pipkin Middle F MO #324/391 Nat'l #10,474/14,009 High Central High D+ MO #92/521 Nat'l #5,016/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Springfield R-XII
• NCES district ID: 2928860
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $37,886
• Composite: 32.45/100
• National rank: #5717
• State rank: #174 of 324 in MO

B Composite livability gradescore 75/100

Livability — Springfield

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #4121

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Springfield, MO
• County: Greene County · 319,054 people
• City population: 223,044
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• Population (ZIP): 42,882
• Household income: $50,572
• Rent vs Own: 45.0% rent · 55.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 319,054 people
• By 2030: 335,135 · +5.0%
• By 2040: 366,186 · +14.8%
• By 2050: 397,431 · +24.6%
• By 2075: 477,035 · +49.5%
• By 2100: 520,828 · +63.2%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

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Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 38.9% · R 59.7% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: -15.8pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+24.4 2008: R+15.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -87.08%
• Current HPI: 205.0439
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.24%
• Metro: Springfield, MO
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public waterPublic sewer
• Home design: Single-family residenceOne story
• Construction: Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered patio/porchProperty has a viewLot approximately 0.69 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric ovenFree-standing electric ovenDishwasherRefrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning
• Interior features: DishwasherRefrigeratorElectric ovenFree-standing electric ovenElectric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on main level

Price history

+197.8% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-14 Price Changed $95,000 SOMO
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $105,000 SOMO
• 2026-04-10 Listed $120,000 SOMO
• 2022-02-25 Price Changed $1,095 RENT.
• 2021-07-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-07-22 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2021-06-01 Listed $66,000 SOMO
• 2018-11-16 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2018-08-17 Listed $42,500 SOMO
• 2015-03-25 Sold (MLS) — SOMO
• 2014-11-21 Listed $31,900 SOMO
• 2014-02-24 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+0.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $521 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.