201 Northcrest Acrs · Avon, PA 17046

$83,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,852 sqft · Manufactured public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1991 $45/sqft · 67% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Plenty of room in this 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath home on one of the largest lots in Northcrest Acres. Sellers are leaving all appliances and most window treatments! You won't believe the space inside - There is a foyer, formal dining room, large eat in kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious living room!

Key facts

• Driveway for parking
• Manageable lot size
• Built 1991

Tags

• DOUBLE-WIDE MANUFACTURED HOME
• WELL-APPOINTED KITCHEN
• DRIVEWAY FOR PARKING
• MANAGEABLE LOT SIZE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property manager present; Ownership is ground rent
• Financial info: Ground rent exists with a monthly payment of $495; Annual ground rent listed under income/expense

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking
• Utilities: Community water; Community septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Estimated year built
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Above-grade structures noted
• Exterior features: Driveway; Other above-grade structures; Ground rent applies (monthly payment of $495); Not in a federal flood zone; Pets allowed on a case-by-case basis

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms (both on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: 90% forced air heating; Propane (leased) heating fuel; Central air conditioning; Cooling uses bottled gas; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Estimated living area

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $785 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#483 in PA, #4,457 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Cornwall-Lebanon SD (suburban): math 37% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #219 of 539 in PA (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Union Canal El Sch (math 33% / reading 46%, grade F, #947 of 1,518 statewide, top 65%, 406 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 121 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 315 units permitted in Lebanon County in 2024 (36 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $574 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lebanon County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.4% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 12y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $39k; list at $83k implies a 113% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $81,755 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.03% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.65%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.55%
• DSCR: 2.80
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $251,696
• List price: $83,000
• Delta: -67.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.36% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 41.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.91×
• Total profit: $44,278
• Equity at exit: $12,376

10-year hold

• IRR: 49.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $137,582
• Equity at exit: $7,176

Cash invested: $23,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17046

• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 121
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,682 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$435
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $885/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $785

Break-even live

Break-even rent $688

Max offer price $83,000

Occupancy floor 48%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,750
• Closing costs: $2,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
160 Robert's Cir Lebanon, PA	2.0	2.0	1320	$1,625	$1.23	43d	1	1.05mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-03
   statusdays on market $83,000 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $83,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $83,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $83,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-05-30
   days on market $83,000 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-05-13
   listed $94,500 Active 1142-char remark
7. 2014-06-23
   soldstatus $39,000 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Plenty of room in this 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath home on one of the largest lots in Northcrest Acres. Sellers are leaving all appliances and most window treatments! You won't believe the space inside - There is a foyer, formal dining room, large eat in kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious living room!

8. 2014-06-23
   historical

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Plenty of room in this 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath home on one of the largest lots in Northcrest Acres. Sellers are leaving all appliances and most window treatments! You won't believe the space inside - There is a foyer, formal dining room, large eat in kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious living room!

9. 2014-05-29
   historical 304-char remark

   Show marketing remark (304 chars)

   Plenty of room in this 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath home on one of the largest lots in Northcrest Acres. Sellers are leaving all appliances and most window treatments! You won't believe the space inside - There is a foyer, formal dining room, large eat in kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious living room!

10. 2014-04-01
    listed $42,900 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Plenty of room in this 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath home on one of the largest lots in Northcrest Acres. Sellers are leaving all appliances and most window treatments! You won't believe the space inside - There is a foyer, formal dining room, large eat in kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious living room!

11. 2014-04-01
    listed $42,900

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Plenty of room in this 3 bedrooms, 2 full bath home on one of the largest lots in Northcrest Acres. Sellers are leaving all appliances and most window treatments! You won't believe the space inside - There is a foyer, formal dining room, large eat in kitchen with breakfast bar and spacious living room!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $885 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,098 · $92/mo
• Expected delta: +$213/yr (+$18/mo · 24.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 11% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,187
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,649
• − Property taxes: −$885
• − Insurance: −$415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,615
• − Management: −$1,615
• − Depreciation: −$2,415
• Taxable income: $8,592
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,062
• After-tax cash flow: $7,362/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cornwall-Lebanon SD
• NCES district ID: 4206840
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $62,483
• Composite: 41.0/100
• National rank: #3589
• State rank: #219 of 539 in PA

Livability — Avon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #483
• US rank: #4457

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lebanon County · 95,836 people
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• Population (ZIP): 31,835
• Household income: $62,221
• Rent vs Own: 36.4% rent · 63.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 905.0

Population outlook (Lebanon County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 144,806 people
• By 2030: 147,534 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 152,952 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 159,406 · +10.1%
• By 2075: 181,736 · +25.5%
• By 2100: 198,402 · +37.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 34% Two or more races 12% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 20% Dominican 9%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Polish 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 23%

Political lean MEDSL · Lebanon

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+32.0) · D 33.6% · R 65.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.1pp toward R · 2008: -18.9pp · 2024: -32.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+32.0 2020: R+31.7 2016: R+35.5 2012: R+28.0 2008: R+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.36%
• Current HPI: 217.3106
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.36%
• Metro: Lebanon, PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+93.5% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-21 Price Changed $83,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $94,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-23 Sold (MLS) $39,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-06-23 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-05-29 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-01 Listed $42,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2014-04-01 Listed $42,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $885 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.