940 Leidich St · Orion, MI 48362

$415,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,890 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 25 Days on market

Built 1953 0.32 ac lot $220/sqft · 33% below area Est $615k · 33% under · waterfront

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.7/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to the best of BOAT worlds! 940 Leidich Street comes with a deeded share of the largest unbuilt lot left on Lake Orion. You are only a short walk from enjoying your day on all sports Lake Orion. Unlike lake front homes, this home also has a large yard and privacy. Located at the end of a dead-end road, this house is perfect for kids and pets. This 3-bedroom, 2.5 bath home has plenty of room with unique features. Original hardwood floors throughout. A large great room features a custom stone, natural wood fireplace. French doors lead out to a large wrap around deck and hot tub. Sunroom is currently used as an office but could be used as a dining room. Eat in kitchen with built in se

Key facts

• Privacy
• Deeded share of lot
• Large yard

Tags

• DEEDED SHARE OF LOT
• LARGE YARD
• PRIVACY
• END OF DEAD-END ROAD
• ORIGINAL HARDWOOD FLOORS
• CUSTOM STONE FIREPLACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $415k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-119 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $394k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $309k (25.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $309k (25.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lake Orion Community Schools (suburban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #45 of 540 in MI (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 16% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Orion Oaks Elementary School (math 39% / reading 59%, grade D, #425 of 1,397 statewide, top 31%, 515 students, 32% FRL); Oakview Middle School (math 50% / reading 64%, grade B, #66 of 493 statewide, top 14%, 406 students, 35% FRL); Lake Orion Community High School (math 54% / reading 75%, grade B-, #46 of 713 statewide, top 7%, 2,174 students, 24% FRL).
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($409k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $136k; list at $415k implies a 205% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $308,817 (25.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.23%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $615,172
• List price: $415,000
• Delta: -32.54%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
892 Heights Rd	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,966 (+4%)	14mo	$700,000	$356	71
710 Pine Tree Rd	0.43mi	3/2.5	1,932 (+2%)	9mo	$445,000	$230	66
664 King Cir	0.45mi	3/3.0	1,979 (+5%)	2mo	$1,360,000	$687	66
531 Pine Tree Rd	0.17mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+6%)	20mo	$316,000	$158	65
677 King Cir	0.42mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,950 (+3%)	11mo	$427,500	$219	61
571 Westpointe Ct. Ct	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,899 (+0%)	19mo	$869,000	$458	59
807 Pine Tree Rd W	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,740 (-8%)	11mo	$840,000	$483	59
533 Bellevue Ave	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-5%)	10mo	$725,000	$403	56
455 Shady Oaks St	0.07mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,128 (+13%)	21mo	$752,000	$353	52
633 Detroit Ave	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,836 (-3%)	22mo	$500,000	$272	47
683 Birmingham Ave	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,820 (-4%)	21mo	$289,900	$159	42
734 Woodland Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,640 (-13%)	15mo	$275,000	$168	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-74,981
• Equity at exit: $61,878

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-75,648
• Equity at exit: $35,882

Cash invested: $116,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48362

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 11.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,088 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,176
• Tax from tax record: −$210 /mo · $2,515/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$649
• Net cashflow: $-119

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,239

Max offer price $393,948

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $116	-5% $-2	+0% $-119	+5% $-237	+10% $-354
Rent	-10% $-363	-5% $-241	+0% $-119	+5% $3	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $-14	base $-119	+0.5pp $-227	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $103,750
• Closing costs: $12,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
391 Shady Oaks St Lake Orion, MI	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,995	$1.56	0d	1	0.10mi
391 Shady Oaks St Lake Orion, MI	3.0	2.0	1920	$2,995	$1.56	12d	1	0.10mi
442 Mystic Cove Ln Lake Orion, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0–3.0	1989	$5,350	$2.69	0d	4	1.17mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-04
   listed $415,000 Active 1243-char remark
2. 2026-05-04
   listed $415,000 Active 1254-char remark
3. 2026-05-04
   historical
4. 2026-05-04
   historical
5. 2026-05-04
   historical
6. 2026-05-04
   historical
7. 2026-05-04
   listed $415,000 Active
8. 2026-04-10
   listed $450,000 Active
9. 2026-04-10
   listed $450,000 Active
10. 2026-03-31
    listed $575,000 Active
11. 2026-03-31
    listed $575,000 Active
12. 2026-03-24
    historical
13. 1996-09-06
    soldstatus $136,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,515 · $210/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,453 · $371/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,938/yr (+$161/mo · 77.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,058
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,246
• − Property taxes: −$2,515
• − Insurance: −$2,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,965
• − Management: −$2,965
• − Depreciation: −$12,073
• Taxable loss: −$8,781
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,107
• After-tax cash flow: $677/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lake Orion Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2620730
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $82,396
• Composite: 51.21/100
• National rank: #1755
• State rank: #45 of 540 in MI

Livability — Orion

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• City population: 10,401
• Population (ZIP): 14,746

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 5% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -307.96%
• Current HPI: 182.3653
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+205.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-04 Listed $415,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-04 Listed $415,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $450,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-10 Listed $450,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $575,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-31 Listed $575,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-03-24 Coming Soon — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1996-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $136,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,515 · +2.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.