Is 130 Padre Blvd #612 in South Padre Island, TX a good investment?

CashFlowRE grades it D with a 5.2% cap rate and $-267/mo modeled cash flow at a $305,000 list price. See the full underwriting and recommended offer on the page.

What is the cap rate for 130 Padre Blvd #612?

The modeled cap rate is 5.2% — annual NOI divided by price, using CashFlowRE's rent and expense estimates.

What would this property rent for?

Estimated market rent is $3,115/month, from CashFlowRE's rent model.

D Composite 42.75

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

ARV discount +15.0/15.0
Cash flow +8.5/30.0
1% rule +5.2/10.0
Condition / age +3.8/5.0
Livability +3.0/5.0
Rent growth +2.5/5.0
Schools +2.5/10.0
DSCR +2.3/10.0
Appreciation +0.0/10.0

$305,000

130 Padre Blvd #612 · South Padre Island, TX 78597

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,043 sqft · Condo · 74 Days on market

Built 1984 Good condition $292/sqft · 23% below area Est $395k · 23% under $620/mo HOA · 20% of rent

🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence

Listing remarks MLS

Top-floor coastal retreat offering more space than many comparable condos in the area — and competitively priced. Located just a short walk from the beach, this beautifully furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath condo combines comfort, functionality, and island living in one attractive package. Enjoy abundant natural light, ocean breezes, and an open-concept living and dining area that flows seamlessly into the fully equipped kitchen — perfect for entertaining or relaxing after a day by the water. Both bedrooms are generously sized with ample closet space, while the primary suite features a private bath. Step onto your private balcony and enjoy the relaxed coastal atmosphere from this quiet, well-maintained community. Features include in-unit stackable washer/dryer, new roof installed in 2025, tennis and pickleball courts, and move-in ready furnishings. Excellent opportunity for a vacation getaway, or investment property on South Padre Island.

Key facts

Private balcony
New roof installed
$620 HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $305k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

At list price, monthly cash flow is $-267 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $266k (12.7% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $305k).
Recommended offer: $266k (12.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 1.8% in South Padre Island — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,077 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing B; Watch: amenities C-, crime F, commute F.
Point Isabel ISD (town): math 14% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #756 of 826 in TX (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
Zoned schools: Port Isabel J H (math 10% / reading 29%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,662 statewide, top 88%, 425 students, 84% FRL); Port Isabel H S (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,632 statewide, top 70%, 606 students, 82% FRL) — zoned schools average 83% FRL vs 35% district-wide (48 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: 580 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 70d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,326 units permitted in Cameron County in 2024 (503 in 5+ unit buildings).
At $3,115/mo this rent would consume 55% of the median local household income ($68k/yr) (locally 20% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Cameron County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

It's been on market 74 days — a 6% lower offer ($287k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
9 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→31/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,328 (12.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 74 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

1% rule: 1.02% ✓
Cap rate: 5.24%
Cash-on-cash: -3.76%
DSCR: 0.83
GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

ARV (median comp): $395,393
List price: $305,000
Delta: -22.86%
Verdict: UNDERPRICED
Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
200 Padre Blvd Unit A314 (1314)	0.08mi	2/2.0	967 (-7%)	8mo	$337,500	$349	77
130 Padre Blvd #102	0.00mi	2/1.0	858 (-18%)	13mo	$250,000	$291	60
402 Padre Blvd #605	0.40mi	2/2.0	1,112 (+7%)	14mo	$499,000	$449	59
404 Padre Blvd #202	0.42mi	2/2.0	926 (-11%)	5mo	$519,000	$560	57
404 Padre Blvd #1004	0.42mi	2/2.0	1,235 (+18%)	2mo	$480,000	$389	54
1700 Gulf Blvd #307	1.11mi	2/2.0	1,076 (+3%)	11mo	$399,950	$372	51
115 E Marlin St Unit D	1.41mi	2/2.0	1,130 (+8%)	2mo	$435,000	$385	49
708 Padre Blvd #1504	0.63mi	2/2.0	1,172 (+12%)	4mo	$584,900	$499	46
1816 Gulf Blvd #402	1.16mi	2/2.0	1,167 (+12%)	15mo	$695,000	$596	33
2100 Gulf Blvd	1.33mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,226 (+18%)	3mo	$640,000	$522	32
2100 Gulf Blvd #302	1.33mi	2/2.0	1,226 (+18%)	16mo	$450,000	$367	26
1700 Gulf Blvd #312	1.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (+20%)	15mo	$459,000	$365	23

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

IRR: -22.4%
Equity multiple: 0.23×
Total profit: $-66,017
Equity at exit: $45,476

10-year hold

IRR: -16.1%
Equity multiple: 0.09×
Total profit: $-77,665
Equity at exit: $26,371

Cash invested: $85,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
County: — inherits STATE
City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

For sale now: 0 active · 1 under contract

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 78597

Home prices YoY: -13.5%
Active inventory: 580
Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

Estimated rent: $3,115 medium interval (Pro) →
Mortgage (P&I): −$1,599
Tax est. 1.5%: −$381 /mo · $4,575/yr
Insurance: −$127
HOA: −$620
Lot rent: −$0
Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$654
Net cashflow: $-267

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,453

Max offer price $266,328

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-56	-5% $-162	+0% $-267	+5% $-373	+10% $-478
Rent	-10% $-513	-5% $-390	+0% $-267	+5% $-144	+10% $-21
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-190	base $-267	+0.5pp $-346	+1.0pp $-427

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

Down payment: $76,250
Closing costs: $9,150
Club membership (one-time): —
Reserves months: —
Total cash needed: —

Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live

Conventional

25% down · 7.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.

DSCR

20% down · 8.5% · 30yr

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.

Hard money

10% down · 12.0% · 12mo

Cash invested: —
Monthly P&I: —
Monthly cashflow: —
DSCR: —
Eligible?: —

Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
200 Padre Blvd #1208 South Padre Island, TX	1.0	2.0	781	$3,000	$3.84	93d	1	0.09mi
150 Padre Blvd Unit 1372339P South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	1194	$4,507	$3.77	70d	1	0.15mi
113 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 2 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	1.0	750	$2,300	$3.07	63d	1	1.05mi
111 W Sunny Isle Dr Unit 201 South Padre Island, TX	2.0	2.0	928	$2,500	$2.69	63d	1	1.06mi

Property features AI

Finance

Other: Paved road accessSidewalks in the community
HOA & community: Mandatory association: Gulfview Homeowner AssociationMonthly association fee of $620POA transfer fee applies

Exterior

Parking: No garage or carportNo covered or assigned parking spaces
Utilities: Public waterCity sewer
Home design: Condominium (Gulfview II)Not new constructionFlat or other roof
Construction: Slab foundationNo construction material specified
Exterior features: BalconyBBQ pit / grillOn-site exercise roomCovered patioGulfside waterfront

Interior

Kitchen: RefrigeratorElectric smooth top range
Flooring: Tile
Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric)Central air conditioning (electric)
Interior features: Laminate countertopsCeiling fan(s)Drapes
Laundry & utility: Electric water heaterWater heater located in utility area

HOA detail $620/mo · $7,440/yr condo

Likely covers: water
Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 50 events

2026-08-08

days on market $305,000 Active 74 DOM
2026-08-07

days on market $305,000 Active 73 DOM
2026-08-06

days on market $305,000 Active 72 DOM
2026-08-05

days on market $305,000 Active 71 DOM
2026-08-04

days on market $305,000 Active 70 DOM
2026-08-03

days on market $305,000 Active 69 DOM
2026-07-31

days on market $305,000 Active 66 DOM
2026-07-29

days on market $305,000 Active 64 DOM
2026-07-27

days on market $305,000 Active 62 DOM
2026-07-25

days on market $305,000 Active 60 DOM
2026-07-23

days on market $305,000 Active 58 DOM
2026-07-22

days on market $305,000 Active 57 DOM
2026-07-21

days on market $305,000 Active 56 DOM
2026-07-18

days on market $305,000 Active 53 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $305,000 Active 51 DOM
2026-07-16

days on market $305,000 Active 50 DOM
2026-07-14

days on market $305,000 Active 49 DOM
2026-07-13

days on market $305,000 Active 48 DOM
2026-07-12

days on market $305,000 Active 47 DOM
2026-07-11

days on market $305,000 Active 46 DOM
2026-07-10

days on market $305,000 Active 45 DOM
2026-07-09

days on market $305,000 Active 44 DOM
2026-07-08

days on market $305,000 Active 43 DOM
2026-07-07

days on market $305,000 Active 42 DOM
2026-07-06

days on market $305,000 Active 41 DOM
2026-07-05

days on market $305,000 Active 40 DOM
2026-07-04

days on market $305,000 Active 39 DOM
2026-07-03

days on market $305,000 Active 38 DOM
2026-07-02

days on market $305,000 Active 37 DOM
2026-07-01

days on market $305,000 Active 36 DOM
2026-06-30

days on market $305,000 Active 35 DOM
2026-06-29

days on market $305,000 Active 34 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $305,000 Active 33 DOM
2026-06-28

days on market $305,000 Active 32 DOM
2026-06-27

days on market $305,000 Active 31 DOM
2026-06-25

days on market $305,000 Active 29 DOM
2026-06-23

days on market $305,000 Active 27 DOM
2026-06-22

days on market $305,000 Active 26 DOM
2026-06-18

days on market $305,000 Active 23 DOM
2026-06-17

days on market $305,000 Active 22 DOM
2026-06-16

days on market $305,000 Active 21 DOM
2026-06-15

days on market $305,000 Active 20 DOM
2026-06-14

days on market $305,000 Active 18 DOM
2026-06-13

days on market $305,000 Active 17 DOM
2026-06-10

days on market $305,000 Active 15 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $305,000 Active 14 DOM
2026-06-09

days on market $305,000 Active 13 DOM
2026-06-07

days on market $305,000 Active 12 DOM
2026-06-03

days on market $305,000 Active 8 DOM
2026-06-02

days on market $305,000 Active 7 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (shaded) · 52% chance over 30 yrs
🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥105°F today · 31 d/yr by 30 yrs out
💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Nearby sold comps map

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Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi

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Taxation est. · year 1

Rental income: $37,375
− Mortgage interest: −$17,085
− Property taxes: −$4,575
− Insurance: −$1,525
− Repairs & maintenance: −$2,990
− Management: −$2,990
− HOA: −$7,440
− Depreciation: −$8,873
Taxable loss: −$8,102

Your marginal tax rate % combined federal + state — saved on this device

Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,945
After-tax cash flow: $-1,262/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $5,215–$15,645 screening

This top-floor coastal retreat offers more space than many comparable condos in the area and is competitively priced. The property is in good condition with some cosmetic updates needed to enhance its value.

Repairs flagged

Minor kitchen cabinets — Light wear and tear.
Minor bathroom fixtures — Older style and possibly worn out.
Minor living area flooring — Tile flooring appears worn and could benefit from a fresh coat of sealant.
Minor paint in living areas — Paint appears faded and could be refreshed with a fresh coat.

Value-add opportunities

Both Paint living areas and bathrooms — Fresh paint can significantly improve the appearance and value of the property. ↑
Both Replace kitchen cabinets and countertops — New cabinets and countertops can enhance the functionality and aesthetic appeal of the kitchen. ↑
Both Replace bathroom fixtures — Modern fixtures can improve the functionality and aesthetic appeal of the bathrooms. ↑
Both Replace flooring in living areas — New flooring can enhance the functionality and aesthetic appeal of the living areas. ↑
Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — Fresh landscaping can improve the curb appeal and overall aesthetic of the property. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Middle Port Isabel J H F TX #1,445/1,662 Nat'l #11,801/14,009 High Port Isabel H S F TX #1,112/1,632 Nat'l #11,215/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

District: Point Isabel ISD
NCES district ID: 4835250
Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -24.00%
Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -10.00%
Median HH income: $38,115
Composite: 18.78/100
National rank: #8871
State rank: #756 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 60/100

Livability — South Padre Island

Score: 60/100
State rank: #1077
US rank: #19107

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living D- Crime F Employment B- Housing B Health & safety B- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

Census place: South Padre Island, TX
County: Cameron County · 441,603 people
Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
Population (ZIP): 2,935
Household income: $68,421
Rent vs Own: 29.4% rent · 70.6% own
Severe rent burden: 20% of renters

Population outlook (Cameron County) Hauer SSP2

Today (2025): 441,603 people
By 2030: 448,113 · +1.5%
By 2040: 456,385 · +3.3%
By 2050: 456,294 · +3.3%
By 2075: 423,851 · -4.0%
By 2100: 342,787 · -22.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (76%)
Race & ethnicity: White 76% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 7% Black 6% Asian 2%
Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14%
Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% German 2%
Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cameron

2024 margin: Lean R (+5.8) · D 46.7% · R 52.5%
2008→2024 swing: -34.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.8pp · 2024: -5.8pp
All cycles: 2024: R+5.8 2020: D+13.2 2016: D+32.5 2012: D+32.4 2008: D+28.8

Not yet ingested

Civics: —

Market trends

HPI YoY: ▼ -66.59%
Current HPI: 425.29
Rent YoY: —
Metro: Brownsville-Harlingen, TX
State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
Energy	16	$1,198B
#8 Exxon Mobil Spring $349.6B #16 Chevron Houston $202.8B #28 Phillips 66 Houston $145.5B #34 Valero Energy San Antonio $124.0B #53 Energy Transfer Dallas $82.7B #75 ConocoPhillips Houston $57.0B #78 Enterprise Products Partners Houston $56.2B #92 Plains GP Holdings Houston $50.1B #134 HF Sinclair Dallas $29.6B #142 Occidental Petroleum Houston $26.3B #173 Targa Resources Houston $19.4B #188 Cheniere Energy Houston $17.6B #239 Kinder Morgan Houston $15.3B #419 APA Corporation Houston $8.6B #393 Cabot Oil & Gas Houston $7.9B #455 Coterra Energy Houston $5.8B
Technology	5	$198B
#44 Dell Technologies Round Rock $95.6B #87 Oracle Austin $53.0B #132 Hewlett Packard Enterprise Spring $30.1B #193 Texas Instruments Dallas $16.3B #406 Match Group Dallas $3.4B
Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
#228 Quanta Services Houston $23.7B #258 Jacobs Solutions Dallas $16.3B #318 AECOM Dallas $16.1B #279 Fluor Irving $16.1B
Energy Services	3	$60B
#136 Baker Hughes Houston $28.5B #154 Halliburton Houston $23.1B #368 Smith International Houston $8.4B
Utilities	3	$41B
#194 Vistra Irving $16.3B #211 NRG Energy Houston $15.4B #259 CenterPoint Energy Houston $9.4B
Healthcare	2	$330B
#9 McKesson Irving $309.0B #163 Tenet Healthcare Dallas $20.6B

Price history

+14423.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

2026-05-26 Listed $305,000 RGVMLS
2026-05-26 Listed $305,000 MCALLENMLS
2026-05-15 Listed $305,000 SPIBOR
2026-04-18 Rental Removed $2,500 Avail
2026-03-16 Listed for Rent $2,500 Avail
2025-09-12 Rental Removed $2,200 Avail
2025-09-10 Listed $329,000 SPIBOR
2025-07-14 Listed for Rent $2,200 Avail
2025-07-07 Rental Removed $2,200 Avail
2025-05-17 Price Changed $2,200 Avail
2025-05-06 Listed for Rent $2,350 Avail
2024-01-30 Rental Removed $2,300 Avail
2024-01-09 Listed for Rent $2,300 Avail
2023-12-21 Rental Removed $1,900 Avail
2023-11-12 Price Changed $1,900 Avail
2023-10-17 Listed for Rent $2,100 Avail
2021-05-21 Sold (MLS) — SPIBOR

Cash-flow waterfall

monthly

Sold comps — $/sqft

last 12 mo · ≤1 mi

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