5644 Celebration Dr · Ave Maria, FL 34142

$440,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,816 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 344 Days on market

Built 2023 7,405 sqft lot $476/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Welcome Home to this spectacular Prestige Pulte built home in the Del Webb 55+ community located in Ave Maria, FL. Tasteful upscale enhancements abound in this highly UPGRADED home! EXTENDED room off dining area with sliders in both the extended room and the living room area, SONOS Sound system, upgraded cabinets throughout including crown molding and extended draws in kitchen, quartz counters, SS appliances, large kitchen island, upgraded tile level placed on the diagonal, 8 ft doors, professionally installed blinds throughout with cordless blinds in all windows for easy up and down motion and a remote controlled blind in the sliders. The living room has built-in Sonos surround sound, inst

Key facts

• Large kitchen island
• Quartz counters
• Upgraded cabinets

Tags

• UPGRADED CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERS
• LARGE KITCHEN ISLAND
• BUILT-IN SONOS SURROUND SOUND
• SEAMLESS GLASS SHOWER DOOR
• OUTDOOR KITCHEN INSTALLATION

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Deeded restrictions: no commercial, no RV
• Financial info: Total annual recurring community fees listed
• HOA & community: Mandatory HOA; Quarterly HOA fee; Master quarterly fee; Professional management; HOA covers cable, internet/WiFi, irrigation water, lawn/land maintenance, manager, reserves, street lights, street maintenance, and trash removal; Community amenities: clubhouse, community pool, exercise room, tennis courts, pickleball, golf course (non-equity), putting green, bike/jog paths, sidewalks, dog park, library, restaurant, salon, hobby room, billiards, sauna, shopping, underground utilities, streetlights

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage; Paved driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Central water; Central sewer; Cable available
• Home design: Single-family residence; 1 story / ranch; Rear exposure facing NE; Residential property in Ave Maria community
• Construction: Concrete block construction; Stucco exterior; Tile roof; Built in 2023
• Exterior features: Automatic sprinkler system; Impact resistant sliding windows; Screened lanai/porch; Landscaped view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator/freezer; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms; Split bedroom floor plan; Walk-in closet (master)
• Flooring: Tile; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Master bath with dual sinks and shower
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heating; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Built-in cabinets; Cable prewire; High-speed internet available; Laundry tub; Pantry; Smoke detectors; Window coverings; Great room; Screened lanai/porch; Dining (family)
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry in residence; Laundry tub; Auto garage door

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $440k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-16 ($-197/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $437k (0.7% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $440k).
• Recommended offer: $387k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Estates Elementary School (math 70% / reading 67%, grade B+, #409 of 2,144 statewide, top 20%, 862 students, 53% FRL); Palmetto Ridge High School (math 43% / reading 51%, grade D-, #207 of 667 statewide, top 32%, 2,347 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.0%/yr); 449 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,665/mo this rent would consume 90% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 1093% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.1%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($387k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $80k (15%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $387,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.32%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.05% appreciation · 2.95% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-34,893
• Equity at exit: $105,193

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.03×
• Total profit: $4,096
• Equity at exit: $109,596

Cash invested: $123,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34142

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.0%
• Active inventory: 449
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,665 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,307
• Tax from tax record: −$583 /mo · $6,995/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$152 /mo · $1,824/yr
• HOA: −$476
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$980
• Net cashflow: $-16

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,686

Max offer price $437,093

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $110,000
• Closing costs: $13,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5939 Gala Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	3.0	2300	$5,995	$2.61	23d	1	0.28mi
5709 Constitution St Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1900	$2,400	$1.26	23d	1	0.35mi
5690 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$3,295	$1.82	23d	1	0.44mi
5690 Mayflower Way #601 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1815	$5,500	$3.03	23d	1	0.44mi
5705 Mayflower Way #1407 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1536	$2,250	$1.46	23d	1	0.46mi
5697 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,495	$1.62	23d	1	0.47mi
5728 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2087	$2,650	$1.27	23d	1	0.48mi
8010 Helena Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$2,500	$1.61	21d	1	0.48mi
5309 Beckton Rd Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2051	$2,395	$1.17	23d	1	0.50mi
5476 Katia Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1983	$4,300	$2.17	23d	1	0.56mi
6168 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1570	$5,495	$3.50	13d	1	0.56mi
5769 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1554	$4,000	$2.57	23d	1	0.56mi
6003 Diamonte Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2395	$11,995	$5.01	23d	1	0.57mi
5538 Useppa Dr Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$10,995	$5.94	23d	1	0.59mi
6189 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$6,295	$4.04	23d	1	0.59mi
5435 Pikewood Ct Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.5	1850	$3,695	$2.00	21d	1	0.59mi
6205 Harmony Dr Immokalee, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$5,000	$3.21	23d	1	0.61mi
5515 Whistling Straights Ct Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	2419	$6,500	$2.69	21d	1	0.62mi
5651 Double Eagle Cir #4338 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.63mi
5445 Double Eagle Cir #3011 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$2,495	$1.59	23d	1	0.63mi
6036 Ellerston WAY #1311 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$4,490	$2.58	23d	1	0.63mi
6039 Ellerston WAY #2017 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$6,295	$4.65	23d	1	0.63mi
5629 Double Eagle Cir #4218 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1301	$6,295	$4.84	23d	1	0.63mi
5710 Melbourne Ct #6511 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	0.63mi
6012 Ellerston WAY #1121 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2110	$6,295	$2.98	23d	1	0.63mi
5704 Melbourne Ct #6712 Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	1741	$7,295	$4.19	23d	1	0.63mi
6023 Diamonte Pl Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2379	$4,995	$2.10	23d	1	0.64mi
5909 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1850	$10,995	$5.94	23d	1	0.67mi
5988 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1602	$5,200	$3.25	23d	1	0.68mi
5374 Ferris Ave Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.5	1933	$2,350	$1.22	23d	1	0.69mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3521 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1569	$4,995	$3.18	23d	1	0.69mi
5935 Mayflower Way Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1460	$2,550	$1.75	23d	1	0.70mi
5466 Double Eagle Cir #3425 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$5,995	$4.42	23d	1	0.71mi
5454 Double Eagle Cir #3325 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,495	$1.84	23d	1	0.72mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir #2915 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$6,295	$4.61	21d	1	0.74mi
5937 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	2.0	2061	$4,995	$2.42	23d	1	0.74mi
5433 Double Eagle Cir Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1366	$3,295	$2.41	23d	1	0.74mi
5938 Berwick Ln Ave Maria, FL	3.0	3.0	2247	$10,995	$4.89	23d	1	0.75mi
5428 Double Eagle Cir #2517 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,695	$1.99	23d	1	0.76mi
5478 Double Eagle Cir #3515 Ave Maria, FL	2.0	2.0	1355	$2,395	$1.77	23d	1	0.76mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $476 · $5,712/yr

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $440,000 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $440,000 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $440,000 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $440,000 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-06-10
   days on market $440,000 Active 336 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $440,000 Active 335 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $440,000 Active 334 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $440,000 Active 333 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $440,000 Active 328 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $440,000 Active 327 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $440,000 Active 326 DOM
12. 2026-05-30
    days on market $440,000 Active 325 DOM
13. 2026-03-10
    price $440,000
14. 2026-02-12
    price $465,000
15. 2025-08-29
    price $490,000
16. 2025-07-09
    listed $520,000 Active
17. 2025-05-17
    historical $3,500
18. 2024-12-13
    listed $3,500
19. 2024-10-10
    historical $3,500
20. 2024-06-05
    listed $3,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $6,995 · $583/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,995 · $583/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AH · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $55,978
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,647
• − Property taxes: −$6,995
• − Insurance: −$4,024
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,478
• − Management: −$4,478
• − HOA: −$5,712
• − Depreciation: −$12,800
• Taxable loss: −$7,157
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,718
• After-tax cash flow: $1,520/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Collier
• NCES district ID: 1200330
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $58,275
• Composite: 50.23/100
• National rank: #1892
• State rank: #16 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ave Maria

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ave Maria, FL
• County: Collier County · 396,295 people
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,149
• Household income: $62,333
• Rent vs Own: 48.7% rent · 51.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1093.0

Population outlook (Collier County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,858 people
• By 2030: 450,054 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 502,232 · +19.3%
• By 2050: 544,932 · +29.5%
• By 2075: 627,203 · +49.0%
• By 2100: 659,015 · +56.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 63% Two or more races 39% Black 19% White 16% Native American 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 43% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 2% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 34% English-only · Spanish 53% French/Haitian/Cajun 12%

Political lean MEDSL · Collier

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 33.1% · R 66.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -22.5pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+24.7 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+30.1 2008: R+22.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.05%
• Current HPI: 226.9105
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.95%
• Metro: Naples-Marco Island, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+12471.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-10 Price Changed $440,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2026-02-12 Price Changed $465,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $490,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-07-09 Listed $520,000 NAPLESMLS
• 2025-05-17 Rental Removed $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-12-13 Listed for Rent $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-10-10 Rental Removed $3,500 NAPLESMLS
• 2024-06-05 Listed for Rent $3,500 NAPLESMLS

Property tax history

+42.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,995 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.