2200 196th St SE Unit #59 · Bothell East, WA 98012

$39,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1976 $28/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Alder Trails, one of Bothell’s most desirable 55+ communities! This charming manufactured home offers an incredible opportunity to create your dream space, with endless potential to update, remodel, and add your personal touch. Whether you envision a modern refresh or a custom renovation, the possibilities here are truly exciting. Nestled in a beautifully maintained, park-like setting, residents enjoy access to community amenities including a clubhouse, fitness center, green space, and regular social events. Ideally located near shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences, with Canyon Park Shopping Center and Canyon Park Place just minutes away. Enjoy nearby outdoor recreat

Key facts

• Green space
• Outdoor recreation
• Fitness center

Tags

• CLUBHOUSE
• FITNESS CENTER
• GREEN SPACE
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES
• OUTDOOR RECREATION
• SCENIC WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($25k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $38k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 69.9% vs local median 1.4% in Bothell East — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 90/100 on livability (#5 in WA, #104 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, amenities A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Northshore School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #9 of 291 in WA (top 3%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 451 active listings in the ZIP; 29 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,982 units permitted in Snohomish County in 2024 (1,492 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Snohomish County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.4% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($38k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (33%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $32k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $37,553 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 7.48% ✓
• Cap rate: 69.89%
• Cash-on-cash: 227.12%
• DSCR: 11.11
• GRM: 1.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,000
• List price: $39,950
• Delta: -68.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2200 196th St SE #96	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	9mo	$80,000	$56	92
2200 SE 196th St #2	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (0%)	8mo	$75,000	$52	89
2200 196th St SE #66	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,344 (-7%)	0mo	$125,000	$93	89
2200 196th St SE #87	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	15mo	$100,000	$69	88
2200 196th St SE #17	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,404 (-2%)	11mo	$211,400	$151	82
19315 22nd Ave SE	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,440 (0%)	12mo	$365,000	$253	79
2200 196th St SE #80	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	12mo	$65,600	$49	74
2000 192nd St SE #116	0.32mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,414 (-2%)	5mo	$429,000	$303	73
2200 196th St SE #30	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,248 (-13%)	3mo	$110,000	$88	70
19229 22nd Ave SE	0.29mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,344 (-7%)	17mo	$430,000	$320	56
1615 208th St SE #40	0.60mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,536 (+7%)	22mo	$212,550	$138	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.37% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.31×
• Total profit: $126,508
• Equity at exit: $5,957

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 25.70×
• Total profit: $276,264
• Equity at exit: $3,454

Cash invested: $11,186 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98012

• Rents YoY: 2.4%
• Active inventory: 451
• Price-to-rent: 1.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,987 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$210
• Tax from tax record: −$16 /mo · $194/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$627
• Net cashflow: $2,117

Break-even live

Break-even rent $307

Max offer price $39,950

Occupancy floor 24%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,988
• Closing costs: $1,198
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 29 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2009 196th St SE Bothell, WA	2.0	2.0	1017	$2,355	$2.32	43d	1	0.16mi
2115 201st Pl SE Unit P3 Bothell, WA	3.0	3.0	1753	$2,999	$1.71	5d	1	0.17mi
19905 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	3.0	1.0–3.0	1244	$3,560	$2.86	1d	1	0.20mi
19324 22nd Ave SE #4 Bothell, WA	3.0	2.5	1195	$2,950	$2.47	24d	1	0.22mi
2422 Stafford Way Bothell, WA	4.0	2.5	1869	$3,800	$2.03	4d	1	0.28mi
20225 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	893	$2,942	$3.29	2d	38	0.29mi
1730 196th St SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	924	$3,215	$3.48	1d	1	0.32mi
19928 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	813	$2,307	$2.84	1d	12	0.35mi
20310 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1195	$2,880	$2.41	43d	1	0.47mi
2201 192nd St SE Bothell, WA	3.0	2.5	1703	$3,400	$2.00	20d	1	0.51mi
18930 Bothell Everett Hwy Unit V101 Bothell, WA	2.0	2.0	980	$2,225	$2.27	5d	1	0.52mi
1910 189th Pl SE Bothell, WA	2.0	2.0	1082	$2,395	$2.21	20d	1	0.54mi
18930 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,225	$2.38	15d	3	0.56mi
18930 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	933	$2,325	$2.49	18d	3	0.56mi
2129 Maltby Rd Bothell, WA	3.0	2.0	1207	$2,195	$1.82	5d	4	0.57mi
1322 194th St SE Bothell, WA	4.0	3.5	1800	$3,550	$1.97	2d	1	0.57mi
20520 Bothell Everett Hwy Bothell, WA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	845	$2,317	$2.74	1d	9	0.58mi
1805 186th Pl SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1043	$2,746	$2.63	1d	13	0.72mi
2319 210th St SE Bothell, WA	4.0	2.5	1742	$3,800	$2.18	24d	1	0.79mi
20707 31st Dr SE Bothell, WA	2.0	2.0	1334	$2,740	$2.05	18d	1	0.86mi
622 204th St SE Bothell, WA	4.0	2.0	1800	$3,400	$1.89	2d	1	1.00mi
1225 183rd St SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$3,061	$3.21	1d	31	1.12mi
18331 35th Dr SE Bothell, WA	3.0	2.5	1740	$3,518	$2.02	1d	1	1.17mi
3612 183rd Ln SE Bothell, WA	3.0	2.5	1732	$3,350	$1.93	43d	1	1.21mi
18213 36th Ave SE Bothell, WA	3.0	2.5	1740	$3,400	$1.95	1d	1	1.26mi
21623 16th Dr SE Bothell, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	990	$3,295	$3.33	2d	11	1.27mi
17615 Brook Blvd Bothell, WA	3.0	1.5	1464	$3,395	$2.32	3d	1	1.30mi
17606 Brook Blvd Bothell, WA	3.0	2.0	1614	$3,400	$2.11	5d	1	1.30mi
19626 Filbert Rd Bothell, WA	3.0	1.0	1084	$2,800	$2.58	24d	1	1.37mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,950 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on market $39,950 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,950 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,950 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,950 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $49,950 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $49,950 Active 70 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $49,950 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $49,950 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $49,950 Active 65 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $49,950 Active 64 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $49,950 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $49,950 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $49,950 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-04-29
    price $54,950
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $59,950 Active
17. 2004-06-01
    soldstatus $32,000
18. 2003-10-10
    listed $34,950

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $194 · $16/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $392 · $33/mo
• Expected delta: +$198/yr (+$16/mo · 102.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,839
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,238
• − Property taxes: −$194
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,867
• − Management: −$2,867
• − Depreciation: −$1,162
• Taxable income: $26,311
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$6,315
• After-tax cash flow: $19,091/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Northshore School District
• NCES district ID: 5305910
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $92,951
• Composite: 67.41/100
• National rank: #826
• State rank: #9 of 291 in WA

Livability — Bothell East

• Score: 90/100
• State rank: #5
• US rank: #104

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bothell East, WA
• County: Snohomish County · 786,756 people
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• Population (ZIP): 77,041
• Household income: $146,144
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1904.0

Population outlook (Snohomish County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 899,800 people
• By 2030: 960,975 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 1,074,447 · +19.4%
• By 2050: 1,171,954 · +30.2%
• By 2075: 1,384,849 · +53.9%
• By 2100: 1,497,296 · +66.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Asian 28% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 9% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 29% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 65% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 8% Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Snohomish

• 2024 margin: D (+19.0) · D 57.8% · R 38.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.1pp no change · 2008: 18.9pp · 2024: 19.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.0 2020: D+20.6 2016: D+16.6 2012: D+16.2 2008: D+18.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -780.30%
• Current HPI: 366.3746
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.37%
• Metro: Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+57.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $54,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Listed $59,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-06-01 Sold (MLS) $32,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-10-10 Listed $34,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $194 · -78.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.