557 Moose Dr · Onalaska, TX 77360

$119,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,022 sqft · Manufactured public records · 273 Days on market

Built 1967 6,298 sqft lot $116/sqft · 37% below area Est $189k · 37% under $54/mo HOA · 5% of rent ↓ 21% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.8/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this clean-as-a-pin, 2-bedroom, 1-bath vintage manufactured home located in a desirable lake subdivision that offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. Nestled on 3 fenced subdivision lots, this well-maintained home is ideal as a weekend getaway, full-time residence, or investment property. Step inside to find new vinyl flooring and fresh paint throughout, giving the home a bright, updated feel while retaining its vintage charm. The layout is cozy yet functional, with an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces—perfect for relaxing or entertaining after a day on the lake. Enjoy peace of mind with new PEX pipe plumbing, providing modern efficiency and reliability. Located just a short walk or drive from the community boat ramp, you’ll have easy access to the lake for fishing, boating, or water sports. The community swimming pool adds even more recreational fun during the warm summer months.

Key facts

• Community boat ramp
• Fresh paint
• Open living area

Tags

• VINTAGE MANUFACTURED HOME
• NEW VINYL FLOORING
• FRESH PAINT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• NEW PEX PIPE PLUMBING
• COMMUNITY BOAT RAMP

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $119k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $114k (4.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $105k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.9% in Onalaska — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,055 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, schools D.
• Onalaska ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #213 of 826 in TX (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 350 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $99 of equity ($823 loan paydown + $-724 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 273 days — a 12% lower offer ($105k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $11k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $104,720 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 273 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.41%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.00%
• DSCR: 1.18
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $189,000
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: -37.04%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
142 Javelina St	0.59mi	2/2.0 (-1)	960 (-6%)	6mo	$299,750	$312	50
168 Rain Forest Rd	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	924 (-10%)	5mo	$189,000	$205	46
342 Rain Forest Rd	0.52mi	2/2.0 (-1)	896 (-12%)	11mo	$79,000	$88	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.61% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.01×
• Total profit: $218
• Equity at exit: $30,977

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $21,185
• Equity at exit: $34,488

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77360

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Active inventory: 350
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,136 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax from tax record: −$59 /mo · $705/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$239
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $995

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
120 Farm to Market Road 356 Unit 4 Onalaska, TX	2.0	1.0	754	$875	$1.16	44d	1	0.66mi
132 Broken Arrow Onalaska, TX	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	44d	1	0.89mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $119,000 Active 273 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 272 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 271 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 270 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 269 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $119,000 Active 267 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 266 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $119,000 Active 264 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 263 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $119,000 Active 262 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,000 Active 261 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,000 Active 258 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 257 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 256 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 255 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 254 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $119,000 Active 253 DOM
18. 2025-12-06
    price $119,000 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Welcome to this clean-as-a-pin, 2-bedroom, 1-bath vintage manufactured home located in a desirable lake subdivision that offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. Nestled on 3 fenced subdivision lots, this well-maintained home is ideal as a weekend getaway, full-time residence, or investment property. Step inside to find new vinyl flooring and fresh paint throughout, giving the home a bright, updated feel while retaining its vintage charm. The layout is cozy yet functional, with an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces—perfect for relaxing or entertaining after a day on the lake. Enjoy peace of mind with new PEX pipe plumbing, providing modern efficiency and reliability. Located just a short walk or drive from the community boat ramp, you’ll have easy access to the lake for fishing, boating, or water sports. The community swimming pool adds even more recreational fun during the warm summer months.

19. 2025-09-19
    listed $130,000 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Welcome to this clean-as-a-pin, 2-bedroom, 1-bath vintage manufactured home located in a desirable lake subdivision that offers the perfect blend of relaxation and recreation. Nestled on 3 fenced subdivision lots, this well-maintained home is ideal as a weekend getaway, full-time residence, or investment property. Step inside to find new vinyl flooring and fresh paint throughout, giving the home a bright, updated feel while retaining its vintage charm. The layout is cozy yet functional, with an open living area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen and dining spaces—perfect for relaxing or entertaining after a day on the lake. Enjoy peace of mind with new PEX pipe plumbing, providing modern efficiency and reliability. Located just a short walk or drive from the community boat ramp, you’ll have easy access to the lake for fishing, boating, or water sports. The community swimming pool adds even more recreational fun during the warm summer months.

20. 2025-08-06
    historical
21. 2025-08-01
    status Active
22. 2025-07-31
    historical
23. 2025-03-09
    listed $150,000 Active
24. 2021-04-14
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $705 · $59/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,178 · $181/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,472/yr (+$123/mo · 208.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,631
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$705
• − Insurance: −$595
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,090
• − Management: −$1,090
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable loss: −$626
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$150
• After-tax cash flow: $1,482/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onalaska ISD
• NCES district ID: 4833690
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $38,882
• Composite: 40.91/100
• National rank: #3616
• State rank: #213 of 826 in TX

Livability — Onalaska

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1055
• US rank: #18716

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Onalaska, TX
• Population (ZIP): 6,130

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.61%
• Current HPI: 150.9486
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-20.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $119,000 HARMLS
• 2025-09-19 Listed $130,000 HARMLS
• 2025-08-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-01 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2025-07-31 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-03-09 Listed $150,000 HARMLS
• 2021-04-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $705 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.