284 Forest Ave · West Milton, OH 45383

$157,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,040 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 107 Days on market

Built 1958 7,405 sqft lot $152/sqft · 13% below area Est $181k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• Cash flow +11.6/30.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Cute brick ranch home located in quiet neighborhood on corner lot in West Milton

Key facts

• Brick ranch home
• Quiet neighborhood
• Corner lot

Tags

• BRICK RANCH HOME
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $158k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-50 ($-600/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (5.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (24.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (24.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.2% in West Milton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#777 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-, crime B+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Milton-Union Exempted Village (rural): math 54% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #324 of 656 in OH (top 49%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Milton-Union Elementary School (math 61% / reading 61%, grade B, #652 of 1,584 statewide, top 41%, 609 students, 0% FRL); Milton-Union Middle School (math 56% / reading 58%, grade B, #305 of 654 statewide, top 48%, 349 students, 0% FRL); Milton-Union High School (math 27% / reading 72%, grade D, #390 of 781 statewide, top 54%, 383 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 33% FRL vs 62% district-wide (29 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 326 units permitted in Miami County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 107 days — a 9% lower offer ($144k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $83k; list at $158k implies a 90% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $120,000 (24.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 107 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.36%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $180,836
• List price: $157,900
• Delta: -12.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
301 N Spring St	0.08mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-3%)	1mo	$152,500	$151	91
409 W Hamilton St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,016 (-2%)	1mo	$174,900	$172	83
290 N Jay St	0.28mi	3/1.0	960 (-8%)	5mo	$186,400	$194	70
207 Palm Ct	0.25mi	3/1.0	950 (-9%)	5mo	$162,500	$171	70
430 Forest Ave	0.15mi	2/1.5 (-1)	950 (-9%)	3mo	$170,000	$179	69
7 Rockleigh Ave	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,066 (+2%)	2mo	$180,000	$169	68
224 Locust Ln	0.38mi	3/1.0	979 (-6%)	5mo	$184,900	$189	68
108 Wagner Rd	0.16mi	3/1.5	1,120 (+8%)	12mo	$201,500	$180	67
155 Stillwater St	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+4%)	1mo	$150,000	$139	67
134 Mckinley Ave	0.44mi	3/1.0	1,190 (+14%)	3mo	$195,900	$165	53
514 S Miami St	0.61mi	2/1.0 (-1)	956 (-8%)	4mo	$135,000	$141	49
634 S Main	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,164 (+12%)	7mo	$165,000	$142	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-28,812
• Equity at exit: $23,543

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.34×
• Total profit: $-29,350
• Equity at exit: $13,652

Cash invested: $44,212 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45383

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$828
• Tax from tax record: −$104 /mo · $1,250/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $-50

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,263

Max offer price $149,063

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $39	-5% $-5	+0% $-50	+5% $-95	+10% $-139
Rent	-10% $-145	-5% $-97	+0% $-50	+5% $-3	+10% $45
Rate	-1.0pp $29	-0.5pp $-10	base $-50	+0.5pp $-91	+1.0pp $-133

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,475
• Closing costs: $4,737
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
439 Lyle Dr West Milton, OH	2.0	2.0	1106	$1,200	$1.08	4d	1	0.15mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $157,900 Active 107 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $157,900 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $157,900 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $157,900 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   pricedays on market $157,900 Active 102 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $164,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $164,900 Active 99 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,900 Active 98 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,900 Active 97 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $164,900 Active 96 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $164,900 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $164,900 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $164,900 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $164,900 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-04
    status Active 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Cute brick ranch home located in quiet neighborhood on corner lot in West Milton

16. 2026-05-04
    price $164,900 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Cute brick ranch home located in quiet neighborhood on corner lot in West Milton

17. 2026-04-24
    historical ActiveUnderContract 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Cute brick ranch home located in quiet neighborhood on corner lot in West Milton

18. 2026-03-24
    price $169,900 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Cute brick ranch home located in quiet neighborhood on corner lot in West Milton

19. 2026-03-02
    listed $179,900 Active 80-char remark

    Show marketing remark (80 chars)

    Cute brick ranch home located in quiet neighborhood on corner lot in West Milton

20. 2014-07-03
    soldstatus $83,000
21. 1993-12-07
    soldstatus $64,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,250 · $104/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,857 · $155/mo
• Expected delta: +$606/yr (+$51/mo · 48.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,845
• − Property taxes: −$1,250
• − Insurance: −$790
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,152
• − Management: −$1,152
• − Depreciation: −$4,593
• Taxable loss: −$3,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$812
• After-tax cash flow: $211/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Milton-Union Exempted Village
• NCES district ID: 3904551
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $51,479
• Composite: 49.12/100
• National rank: #2048
• State rank: #324 of 656 in OH

Livability — West Milton

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #777
• US rank: #14077

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: West Milton, OH
• County: Miami · 104,562 people
• Metro: Dayton-Kettering-Beavercreek, OH
• Population (ZIP): 6,883
• Household income: $63,795
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 3.5

Population outlook (Miami County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 107,816 people
• By 2030: 108,896 · +1.0%
• By 2040: 109,581 · +1.6%
• By 2050: 108,110 · +0.3%
• By 2075: 101,523 · -5.8%
• By 2100: 85,787 · -20.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Miami

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.1) · D 27.0% · R 72.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.6pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -45.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.1 2020: R+44.3 2016: R+45.6 2012: R+35.6 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -89.93%
• Current HPI: 233.9432
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+157.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Relisted — Dayton MLS
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $164,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-04-24 Contingent — Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $169,900 Dayton MLS
• 2026-03-02 Listed $179,900 Dayton MLS
• 2014-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $83,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-07 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,250 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.