15724 Flackwood Trl · Apple Valley, MN 55124

$179,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,086 sqft · Townhouse · 109 Days on market

Built 1999 $420/mo HOA · 21% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.1/10.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• $420 HOA
• Garage
• Built 1999

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA managed by First Service Residential; Monthly association fee of $420; HOA covers cable TV, hazard insurance, internet, lawn care, grounds maintenance, sewer, shared amenities, and water

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage with garage door opener; Asphalt driveway; 1 garage space
• Utilities: City water connected; City sewer connected; Natural gas
• Home design: Attached residential property; Two levels; Main entry on main level
• Construction: Slab foundation; Foundation area 620; Above-grade finished area 1,086
• Exterior features: Patio; Metal and vinyl exterior; Paved street frontage; No fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (upper level)
• Flooring: Tile floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bath (upper level); 1 half bath (main floor)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Informal dining area; Walk-in closet; No basement
• Laundry & utility: In-unit washer and dryer; Washer/Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $179k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-82 ($-978/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (6.6% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $179k).
• Recommended offer: $163k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Apple Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#10 in MN, #379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F.
• Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan (suburban): math 50% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #58 of 301 in MN (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 18% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 276 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,134 units permitted in Dakota County in 2024 (898 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dakota County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($163k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $152k; 18% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 21% of rent.

Recommended offer $162,890 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.75%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.95%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-33,366
• Equity at exit: $26,689

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-32,326
• Equity at exit: $15,477

Cash invested: $50,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55124

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 276
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,994 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$939
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$224 /mo · $2,685/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$420
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$419
• Net cashflow: $-82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,098

Max offer price $167,206

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $42	-5% $-20	+0% $-82	+5% $-143	+10% $-205
Rent	-10% $-239	-5% $-160	+0% $-82	+5% $-3	+10% $76
Rate	-1.0pp $9	-0.5pp $-36	base $-82	+0.5pp $-128	+1.0pp $-175

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,750
• Closing costs: $5,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15782 Flackwood Trl Apple Valley, MN	3.0	1.5	1400	$1,995	$1.43	21d	1	0.05mi
6444 158th St W Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.5	1260	$1,889	$1.50	3d	1	0.23mi
15734 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1130	$1,810	$1.60	0d	15	0.28mi
15539 Float Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	927	$1,795	$1.94	25d	1	0.30mi
15531 Flyboat Ln Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	1010	$1,865	$1.85	25d	1	0.33mi
15482 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,825	$1.53	0d	1	0.34mi
15482 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1190	$1,825	$1.53	3d	1	0.34mi
15533 Flight Way Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.5	976	$1,995	$2.04	25d	1	0.40mi
15600 Galaxie Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1244	$1,642	$1.32	0d	7	0.60mi
6780 Fortino St Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1117	$4,085	$3.66	0d	12	0.62mi
15283 Galante Ln Saint Paul, MN	2.0	1.0–2.0	880	$2,250	$2.56	0d	17	0.77mi
6859 152nd St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1062	$2,022	$1.90	0d	13	0.78mi
15380 Garrett Ave Saint Paul, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–3.0	1676	$3,296	$1.97	3d	10	0.86mi
7472 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$1,468	$1.42	0d	2	0.98mi
15899 Elmhurst Ln Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	1031	$2,268	$2.20	0d	14	1.08mi
7624 157th St W Apple Valley, MN	1.0	1.0	720	$1,395	$1.94	25d	1	1.21mi
14650 Foliage Ave Saint Paul, MN	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,263	$2.31	0d	24	1.27mi
5181 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1044	$1,973	$1.89	0d	4	1.29mi
7802 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,400	$1.40	25d	2	1.31mi
5076 161st St W Lakeville, MN	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1186	$2,203	$1.86	0d	14	1.32mi
7824 Whitney Dr Apple Valley, MN	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,750	$1.40	4d	1	1.37mi
16947 Garcia Way Unit 2 Rosemount, MN	2.0	1.0	900	$1,595	$1.77	17d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $420 · $5,040/yr

Listing history 26 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $179,000 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $179,000 Active 106 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $179,000 Active 105 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $179,000 Active 104 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $179,000 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $179,000 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $179,000 Active 97 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $179,000 Active 96 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $189,000 Active 92 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $189,000 Active 91 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 90 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 88 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    price $199,900
17. 2026-03-31
    price $209,000
18. 2026-03-05
    listed $219,000 Active
19. 2026-03-02
    historical $219,000
20. 2008-01-28
    historical
21. 2007-08-06
    listed $149,900
22. 2007-08-04
    historical
23. 2007-02-04
    listed $154,900
24. 2003-08-08
    soldstatus $152,000
25. 2003-07-01
    historical
26. 2003-06-25
    listed $147,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,932
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,027
• − Property taxes: −$2,685
• − Insurance: −$895
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,915
• − Management: −$1,915
• − HOA: −$5,040
• − Depreciation: −$5,207
• Taxable loss: −$3,751
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$900
• After-tax cash flow: $-78/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rosemount-Apple Valley-Eagan
• NCES district ID: 2732390
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $85,559
• Composite: 49.48/100
• National rank: #2000
• State rank: #58 of 301 in MN

Livability — Apple Valley

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #10
• US rank: #379

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living C Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Apple Valley, MN
• County: Dakota County · 417,704 people
• City population: 55,658
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 55,658
• Household income: $97,727
• Rent vs Own: 26.5% rent · 73.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1406.0

Population outlook (Dakota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 450,671 people
• By 2030: 465,068 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 486,770 · +8.0%
• By 2050: 498,743 · +10.7%
• By 2075: 533,865 · +18.5%
• By 2100: 550,133 · +22.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 10% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Dakota

• 2024 margin: D (+12.9) · D 55.4% · R 42.5% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.4pp toward D · 2008: 5.5pp · 2024: 12.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.9 2020: D+13.9 2016: D+4.7 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+5.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -275.56%
• Current HPI: 227.4734
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.27%
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+35.5% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Price Changed $199,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-31 Price Changed $209,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-05 Listed $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Coming Soon $219,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-28 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-06 Listed $149,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-04 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-04 Listed $154,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-08-08 Sold (MLS) $152,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-07-01 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-06-25 Listed $147,500 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid