1739 Birchwood Dr · Canandaigua, NY 14425

$299,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1982 10,000 sqft lot Est $322k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.8/30.0
• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nestled in a quiet, low-traffic neighborhood within the highly sought-after Farmington/Canandaigua School District, this is the kind of home you don't find every day. Cherished by the same proud owners for over 43 years, the love and care poured into every detail speaks for itself the moment you arrive. Fantastic curb appeal greets you with meticulously maintained landscaping, a welcoming front walk way & a brand-new tear-off roof 2024. Step inside to a bright, open-concept main living space featuring luxury vinyl plank flooring and fresh paint throughout. The living room flows effortlessly into the beautifully updated kitchen with new modern white cabinets, sleek contemporary counter

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• Built 1982
• Listed 17 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story home; Vinyl siding; Resale property
• Construction: Block foundation; Vinyl siding exterior
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Deck; Partial fencing; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One main-level bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Tile; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump; Electric heating; Forced air; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Kitchen-family room combo; Living-dining room; Full finished basement with sump pump; 7 total rooms; Basement level laundry
• Laundry & utility: Laundry in basement; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-137 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (8.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $272k (9.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $272k (9.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 3.3% in Canandaigua — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#243 in NY, #3,822 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, cost of living B; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Canandaigua City School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #305 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Canandaigua Primary-Elementary School (math 37% / reading 49%, grade F, #1,354 of 2,108 statewide, top 64%, 1,475 students, 41% FRL); Canandaigua Middle School (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D+, #330 of 729 statewide, top 46%, 676 students, 0% FRL); Canandaigua Academy (math 100% / reading 92%, grade A+, #71 of 1,100 statewide, top 7%, 1,082 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 26% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 73 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 284 units permitted in Ontario County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($95k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ontario County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($295k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $272,044 (9.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.91% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.74%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.96%
• DSCR: 0.91
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $321,822
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5838 Walnut Dr	0.13mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,820 (-3%)	6mo	$350,000	$192	78
5788 Mountain Ash Dr	0.27mi	3/1.5	1,902 (+1%)	18mo	$255,000	$134	71
1757 Beechwood Dr	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,768 (-6%)	14mo	$320,000	$181	68
1753 Maplewood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (+12%)	1mo	$269,500	$128	63
1612 Wheatstone Dr	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,800 (-4%)	8mo	$250,000	$139	61
1844 Saddle Horn Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,057 (+9%)	11mo	$352,000	$171	58
1611 Wheatstone Dr	0.54mi	3/1.0	2,000 (+6%)	10mo	$248,000	$124	54
1749 Maplewood Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,668 (-11%)	20mo	$335,000	$201	47
6017 Palomino Ct	0.45mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,098 (+12%)	24mo	$360,000	$172	31
5773 Bonnie Brae Cir	0.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,731 (-8%)	22mo	$267,500	$155	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,152
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.28×
• Total profit: $-60,306
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14425

• Home prices YoY: -15.1%
• Active inventory: 73
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,720 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$589 /mo · $7,062/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$571
• Net cashflow: $-137

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,894

Max offer price $275,692

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $33	-5% $-52	+0% $-137	+5% $-222	+10% $-307
Rent	-10% $-352	-5% $-244	+0% $-137	+5% $-30	+10% $78
Rate	-1.0pp $14	-0.5pp $-61	base $-137	+0.5pp $-215	+1.0pp $-294

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1512 Redfern Dr Farmington, NY	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,800	$1.66	4d	1	1.06mi
1515 Red Fern Dr Unit 1512 Farmington, NY	3.0	2.5	1688	$2,800	$1.66	4d	1	1.06mi
1188 Barry Pl Farmington, NY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	1072	$2,675	$2.50	4d	12	1.11mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $299,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,900 Active 14 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,900 Active 13 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,900 Active 12 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   price $299,900 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,000 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 9 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,000 Active 8 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $315,000 Active 6 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 5 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $315,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    remarks 695-char remark
13. 2026-06-07
    listed $315,000 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $7,062 · $589/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,062 · $589/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,645
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$7,062
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,612
• − Management: −$2,612
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable loss: −$6,663
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-45/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Canandaigua City School District
• NCES district ID: 3606330
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $56,375
• Composite: 47.09/100
• National rank: #2335
• State rank: #305 of 590 in NY

Livability — Canandaigua

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #243
• US rank: #3822

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living B Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Ontario County · 58,989 people
• City population: 28,786
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 13,839
• Household income: $94,609
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 257.0

Population outlook (Ontario County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 111,230 people
• By 2030: 111,401 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 109,535 · -1.5%
• By 2050: 104,895 · -5.7%
• By 2075: 92,999 · -16.4%
• By 2100: 73,723 · -33.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 2% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 5% Iranian 4%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ontario

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.4% · R 50.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.0pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -1.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.2 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.6 2012: R+1.6 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -47.59%
• Current HPI: 267.0192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $315,000 UNYREIS

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,062 · +32.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.